THINKING ABOUT NOT EXTENDING THE JACKSON-VANIK

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASHGABAT 000947 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN (PERRY) E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL TX SUBJECT: THINKING ABOUT NOT EXTENDING THE JACKSON-VANIK WAIVER FOR TURKMENISTAN REF: A. 09/05/06 EMBASSY ASHGABAT-SCA/CE OI ¶B. ASHGABAT 884 ¶C. ASHGABAT 942 ¶D. ASHGABAT 932 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Jennifer L. Brush for reasons 1. 4 (B) and (D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Since the last Jackson-Vanik Waiver review, the Government of Turkmenistan has made no progress on freedom of movement and even has refused to engage with the embassy on the subject. Based on the above, post recommends the Department begin considering not extending the waiver. Charge intends to inform Foreign Minister Meredov of this determination at the Tajikistan National Day reception this evening, September 7, in view of the fact that Meredov has refused to meet with any USG official since August 14. Absent the Department's objections, post also intends to submit the attached diplomatic note on September 8. End Summary Waiting for Meredov -------------- ¶2. (C) Beginning with his refusal to meet with PDAS Mann during the latter's August 14-15 visit to Turkmenistan (ref B),and continuing over the past 24 days, Foreign Minister Meredov has avoided meeting with the Charge despite almost daily -- and at times hourly -- requests for access. On three occasions, during various national days, Meredov made a point of publicly approaching Charge to say we needed to meet and Charge readily agreed. Meredov did not follow up on these requests. From September 1-5, the P-3 (United States, UK and France) requested, to no avail, a meeting with Meredov to demarche against signing a Central Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone Treaty. On September 5 Charge was called in to the MFA by Americas Desk Chief Serdar Bashimov to discuss minor issues, at which time Bashimov said Minister Meredov definitely planned to meet with the Charge "soon." Charge noted to Bashimov that Jackson-Vanik was up for review again and that embassy had no choice but to recommend the waiver not be extended based on lack of progress and -- now -- lack of engagement. Hourly calls on September 6-7 to the Ministry to set this appointment also proved fruitless. ¶3. (C) Charge plans to see Meredov at the September 7 Tajikistan National Day reception, at which point she will tell him she has advised the Department to begin considering not extending the waiver. She will tell him the embassy is considering sending a diplomatic note formalizing this recommendation. Draft Diplomatic Note -------------- ¶4. Absent the Department's objections, embassy intends to send the attached draft diplomatic note on September 8. Begin draft diplomatic note: "The Embassy of the United States of America presents its compliments to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan and, referring to the Embassy's Diplomatic Note No. 604/06 dated June 28, 2006 and the Ministry's Diplomatic Note No. 09/3409 dated July 3, 2006, has the honor to inform the Ministry that the Government of the United States is once again reviewing Turkmenistan's waiver under the Jackson-Vanik amendment. Lack of progress in addressing the outstanding cases of exit denials the U.S. Embassy and other diplomatic missions have raised with the Government of Turkmenistan; the Ministry's own claim that there are no lists of citizens prohibited from exiting the country; the lack of clarification on the grounds for inclusion on lists of individuals banned from travel outside Turkmenistan and means of lifting such restrictions; and the unwillingness of the Government of Turkmenistan to engage with the United States and other states on these issues raise serious questions about Turkmenistan's commitment to improve its performance in promoting freedom of movement. Such progress is a prerequisite for extension of the Jackson-Vanik waiver." (Complimentary closing omitted.) End draft diplomatic note. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) The decision not to engage with the United States, or even the P-3, is the president's, not Meredov's. Following the ref d Government of Turkmenistan deal with Gazprom, Niyazov may feel that he no longer needs the United States as leverage to get higher gas prices out of the Russians. He may also be irritated that the United States is not being represented by an ambassador for an extended period. Over the years, Turkmenistan has indulged in brinkmanship on Jackson-Vanik, typically doing the very minimum at the very last minute to avoid canceling the extension. Jackson-Vanik is one of the few sticks we have for dealing with Turkmenistan and losing it carries considerable risk for the future of the remaining programs the USG carries out in this challenging environment. End Comment. BRUSH