Afghan-Turkmen Relations: Mutually Beneficial

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 000721 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL ENRG TX AF ETRD PGOV SOCI ZK SUBJECT: Afghan-Turkmen Relations: Mutually Beneficial Ref: Ashgabat 450 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) During a July 6 meeting with PolOff, Afghanistan Depuy Chief of Mission Rooz M. Noor discussed bilateral trade, transport routes, political relations, future joint projects and the general state of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan bilateral relations. END SUMMARY Afghan Trade with Turkmenistan -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Turkmenistan-Afghanistan bilateral trade mostly flows in one direction, namely energy products -- such as liquefied gas, diesel, gasoline and gas-generated electricity -- to Afghanistan. According to Noor, Turkmenistan exported approximately $123 million worth of goods from Turkmenistan, and imported only $32 million worth of Afghan products in 2005. Afghanistan sells fruit, licorice, spices and nuts to Turkmenistan. Noor pointed out that this was only trade "on the official level" and that there was significant lower-level economic interaction between the two countries. Also, he mentioned that "there is the desire to increase trade engagement with Turkmenistan, however the cumbersome visa process makes it difficult for Afghans to travel to Turkmenistan. On the other hand, our embassy can issue a visa to any Turkmen willing to work in Afghanistan in just one hour." Notably, last week Afghanistan inked a new deal to purchase 100,000 tons of oil from Turkmenistan. Energy and Transportation Links -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Noor mentioned that shortly after the visit of Afghan delegation headed by Afghanistan's Power and Water Resources Minister (and former Governor of Herat) Muhammad Ismail, Niyazov announced that Turkmenistan will write off half of Afghanistan's current $8 million debt to Turkmenistan as a gesture of goodwill. Furthermore, in addition to selling Afghanistan electricity far below market price, Niyazov recently said he wants to extend the current electricity lines past Mazar-i-Sharif and Herat all the way to Kabul. At the current price of $0.02/KWh, Turkmenistan's potential annual revenue from Afghanistan could reach $9.8 million, based on a 490 MW Afghan import assumption (reftel). ¶4. (SBU) Noor also discussed the proposed Trans-Afghan pipeline with great enthusiasm, and said that Afghanistan, "wants to realize the Trans-Afghan pipeline with U.S. support and help" but with the caveat that "without [U.S.] help the project is not possible to implement." ¶5. (SBU) There are only two routes connecting the countries -- the unpaved Imamnazar-Andhoy road and a short road and rail link between Serhetabad and Turghundi, which connects to Herat. Noor expressed his belief that Kelif in the south- eastearn part of Turkmenistan could be a "major gateway into Afghanistan." He recalled that before the Soviet Union, the city of Kelif (Keleft) was a major customs point. He cited the advantages of Kelif as a transit point, including its proximity to a railway line and bridge over the Amudarya River near Islampinja in Afghanistan. (Note: Noor was a governor of Jowzan province, where Kelif is located. End note.) Kelif is also connected to the cities of Shibargan and Mazar-i-Sharif. Diplomatic and Political Relations -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Noor characterized bilateral relations as friendly, saying that "Turkmenistan is our friendly neighbor and we never had any conflicts with them." While Afghanistan has an embassy in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan maintains an embassy in Kabul and has consulates in both Mazar-i-Sharif and Herat, which are holdovers from when the time of Taliban rule, when Niyazov was attempting to maintain good relations with both the Northern Alliance and the Taliban. Noor told PolOff ASHGABAT 00000721 002 OF 003 that Turkmenistan's diplomatic missions mostly "monitor the security situation" and provide technical assistance to the Turkmen-Afghan power projects -- despite over 2 million ethnic Turkmen living in Afghanistan. Narcotics Traffic -------------- ¶7. (SBU) On the subject of narco-trafficking between the two countries, Noor admitted that this was a problem, but downplayed the severity. Noor admitted that there are currently 64 Afghan citizens imprisoned in Turkmenistan for drug-related charges, but that the trafficking was not that bad, since "the authorities will imprison someone for just having two or three grams of heroin" on them, and besides "60kg was the largest" heroin seizure here. Educational and Cultural Exchanges -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Like their economic relationship, educational and cultural exchange is somewhat one-sided. There are currently over 30 Afghan students studying in Ashgabat at the university level on a program that is fully-funded by the government of Turkmenistan. This is a sharp increase from only a handful of slots two years ago, and Noor did not know of one example of a Turkmenistani going to study in Afghanistan. Furthermore, Turkmenistan regularly sends technical advisors in the energy and electricity field to assist with Afghanistan's power grid. Afghanistan is hoping to stage its first cultural exchange later this year with a planned trip by a musical ensemble for Turkmenistan's October Independence Day celebrations. Atmospherics -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Speaking a combination of antiquated Turkmen, Dari and Turkish throughout the conversation, Noor was very upbeat and lost no opportunity to express almost extreme gratitude to the United States for its assistance in various areas. As the former governor of Jowzjan province in Afghanistan, he routinely met with and accompanied Americans throughout his region, and had no shortage of anecdotes about promoting U.S.-Afghan relations in this way. Throughout the meeting, the television was tuned to Voice of America television broadcast, but without the sound. Future assessment of TX -------------- ¶10. (SBU) While Noor was resoundingly positive about future prospects for Turkmenistan's economic development, he was less so on the political side. He averred several times to comment on the situation, making statements like, "we are in favor of democracy everywhere," and "all people have a right to be free," eventually settling on "Afghanistan respects the neutrality policy of Turkmenistan and does not interfere into the internal affairs of other countries." However, when pressed, Noor said that there was the possibility that, "the spark of democracy started in Afghanistan has the potential to spread to Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan." Comment -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The mutually beneficial nature of Turkmenistan's relationship with Afghanistan is somewhat unusual, without the normal litany of complains about lack of cooperation and frustration with the government that other neighboring countries have expressed. Yet despite the Turkmenistan's favorable balance of trade, Niyazov's unusual generosity and energy assistance seems driven by a long-standing concern about the Afghans. Even during the Taliban regime, Niyazov exerted extra efforts to have good relations with Afghanistan, and was even more-actively encouraging the Trans-Afghan pipeline at that time. His recent electricity projects and energy agreements aside, more telling are both the limited access points and the strict visa regime, which although not unique, illustrates Turkmenistan's principle of "good fences make good neighbors," and Niyazov's desire to ASHGABAT 00000721 003 OF 003 actively curb any possible foreign influences whenever possible.