INDIA'S ENGAGEMENT IN TURKMENISTAN: CHALLENGES AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 000659 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN (LFRESE) E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2016 TAGS: KDEM PREL ETRD TX IN SUBJECT: INDIA'S ENGAGEMENT IN TURKMENISTAN: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES ASHGABAT 00000659 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: AMBASSADOR TRACEY ANN JACOBSON FOR REASONS 1.4 B and D Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: During two conversations with the new Indian Deputy Chief of Mission in Turkmenistan, Binaya Srikanta Pradahan on June 15 and June 21, PolOff discussed the declining state of economic relations between India and Turkmenistan, various educational, cultural and other programs -- including a new allocation of $10 million for the UN Democracy Fund -- in Turkmenistan, and Pradahan's general views regarding Turkmenistan's government, educational and economic situation. END SUMMARY. Faltering Business Relations -------------- ¶2. (C) Despite several initially-promising joint ventures with Turkmenistan in recent years, notably in pharmaceuticals and construction, economic relations between India and Turkmenistan generally have fallen. This is clearly reflected in the embassy's staffing reduction from one political and one economic officer to a joint political-economic officer who also acts as Deputy Chief of Mission. The volume of India-Turkmenistan bilateral trade was $145 million last year, but Pradahan predicts it will likely be "slightly lower next year," as Indian partners of joint ventures pull out. India: Pessimistic About Trans-Afghan Pipeline -------------- - ¶3. (C) Pradahan was surprisingly skeptical about the possibility of a Trans-Afghan Pipeline, let alone the chances of it extending further to India. He noted that the discussions for this have been ongoing "for years," and that despite numerous high level meetings "on all sides" there was "still no action." He contended that the security situation in Afghanistan was the primary stumbling block, because it would be "difficult to convince major oil companies" to build a pipeline in the current security environment. Nonetheless, he said that Indian involvement in the project discussion would "remain constant" because if it did get off the ground, they would ultimately stand to benefit from it. They Keep On Knockin', But They Can't Come In -------------- ¶4. (C) The Indian embassy gets "lots of queries" via the Indian embassy website, according to Pradahan, and they routinely provide contact information to both the relevant Indian private businesses and Turkmenistani government entities, but "there's never any answer" from the government. Although India's business community has a huge capability to provide technical assistance, especially in the high-technology, industrial development, and other specialized technical fields, there has been little cooperation with Turkmenistan despite Indian efforts to foster it. ¶5. (C) Additionally, overtures towards fostering new economic cooperation or trade deals have also failed, largely due to government inability to do business successfully. "Business should be run by businessmen," according to Pradahan, but "there are no businessmen in Turkmenistan -- only government workers." Citing frequent inquiries by Indian firms working in the agricultural, cottaqe industry, handicraft, and high technology industries looking for new markets and partnerships despite numerous attempts by individual firms and the embassy to initiate joint ventures or partnerships, these have fallen flat due to lack of response or interest on the part of Turkmenistan's officials. Cultural Exchange: Hooray for Bollywood! -------------- ¶6. (C) India has true entr into the hearts and minds of the Turkmenistani people when it comes to culture. Indian movies are very popular here in Turkmenistan and available in the bazaars for less than a dollar for a bootleg copy. (Note: After President Niyazov abolished public cinemas in the mid-1990s the common thing to do is buy VHS tapes or DVDs of foreign movies and watch them at home. End note.) Pradahan claimed their most successful cultural programming was ASHGABAT 00000659 002.2 OF 003 traveling to the welayats and showing recent hit Bollywood films to groups of 50 to100. The embassy does this mostly via the MFA and the hakimliks (regional authorities),and embassy officers are assigned a Ministry of Foreign affairs handler for the duration of their trips. ¶7. (C) However, not all this exposure is good, and due to a lack of other sources of information, many Turkmeistanis have a very misguided impression of India. Pradahan noted that many exchange program applicants are interested in visiting India solely because they aspire to meet -- or even become -- Bollywood dancers or stars. For example, Pradahan told the story of a female Turkmen applicant to an exchange program who insistently and repeatedly asking him to arrange a meeting for her with a very famous Indian film star, to which he responded: "My wife has also asked me about arranging such a meeting (with this actor) -- if I cannot arrange it for her, what makes you think I can do so for you?" Indian Exchanges and Technical Assistance -------------- ¶8. (C) India runs two educational exchange programs in Turkmenistan, both of which send students from Turkmenistan to higher educational institutions in India. The Indian Education Technical Cooperation (or ITEC) program which operates in almost 100 countries worldwide, has 30 dedicated slots for Turkmenistan. Most of the students selected go to an English language university or study computer technology, but there is often direct pressure for GOTX and university officials not to participate in this program. Pradahan shared a recent example of a finalist selected for the ITEC program being personally contacted by the dean of his university and told "if you go to India you cannot come back to our university." (Note: we often have the same problem. End Note.) The second program, SCAAP, is focused on agriculture, business and more technical subjects, but this program has not been operating in Turkmenistan during the past year, although Pradahan declined to say why. In addition, he noted that the quality of applicants has fallen sharply over the years. "Years ago in university, there were several Turkmen students studying with me, who were very good," he shared. "But today the situation has changed," and they get only "Ruhnama-babies" who do not have "complete educations" applying for their programs. Although the ITEC program candidates "often don't qualify" Pradahan conceded that "we have to send them anyway," in order to meet the program's quota for Turkmenistan. ¶9. (C) India also supplies numerous technical advisors, including experts in the fields of international trade, hydrocarbon extraction, and agricultural science -- notably cultivation of crops in the desert. However, Pradahan expressed concern that their advisors often have a difficult time working with some of the ministries. New Indian Money Available for Democracy Projects -------------- -------------- ¶10. (C) Pradahan told PolOff about India's recent contribution of $10 Million to the UN Democracy Fund, which is to be allocated at the discretion of the Indian MFA. He also asked the embassy for guidance in determining how to spend these funds in Turkmenistan. The portion allocated to Turkmenistan "depends upon how much we ask for." So far there are no projects, since democracy funding is a brand new project for the Indian Embassy in Turkmenistan, and they are just starting to look into "what is feasible," stating the need for "partners and groups" to carry out such projects. (Note: PolOff forwarded Pradahan the Embassy Democracy Commission guidelines and information as a starting point. End Note.). Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Within the framework of the new South and Central Asia Bureau and the recent historic improvement in United State-India relations, there is a real opportunity to work in concert to support civil society, democratization efforts and educational exchanges. A diminished economic interest may actually bolster cooperation by the world's largest democracy and the United States in terms of pressuring the Government of Turkmenistan to change its educational system and expand opportunities for civil society and technical assistance that directly benefits the people of Turkmenistan. We should ASHGABAT 00000659 003.2 OF 003 provide as much help as possible to helping the Indians formulate sound plans to distribute their newly-contributed UN Democracy Fund money in ways that ensure good projects and that actively contribute to the development of the non-governmental and educational sectors. In the struggle to provide the Turkmenistani populations with opportunities outside the framework of Niyazovian isolationist and repressive government s tructures, India is a welcome ally. End Comment. JACOBSON JACOBSON