TURKMENISTAN,S RELATIONS WITH ARMENIA: COLD AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000644 SIPDIS SIPDIS SCA/CEN FOR LFRESE, EUR/CARC FOR KWITMER, BPRM FOR ETOURE E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2016 TAGS: PREL SMIG TX AM PHUM SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN,S RELATIONS WITH ARMENIA: COLD AND BLEAK Classified By: AMBASSADOR TRACEY JACOBSON FOR REASONS 1.4(b) AND (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) During two conversations with the Armenian Consul in Turkmenistan Artak Kalachyan on June 12 and 13, PolOff discussed the &cold8 state of relations between Armenia and Turkmenistan, the plight of ethnic Armenians in Turkmenistan and Kalachyan,s predictions for a possible post-Niyazovian future. Although Armenians make up a significant minority population in Turkmenistan, it is rapidly shrinking as life becomes harder for everyone, but more so if one is not an "ethnically-pure" Turkmen. END SUMMARY. 1990s: Niyazov the Protector -------------- ¶2. (C) Throughout the 1990s, Armenia enjoyed excellent relations with Turkmenistan, with many Armenian businesses -- especially building subcontractors and electrical firms -- working on new construction projects in Ashgabat. At the time of independence, there were over 80,000 ethnic Armenians living in Turkmenistan, including a large number who fled Azerbaijan during the 1991-1992 anti-Armenian ethnic violence in the cities of Baku and Sumgayyit and the conflict in Nagorno-Karabagh. Following their departure, according to Kalachyan, Azerbaijani &agents provocateur8 allegedly followed them to Ashgabat and Krasnovodsk (Note: Renamed Turkmenbashy. End Note.),and tried to incite similar ethnic conflicts in Turkmenistan against the Armenians. Niyazov intervened &after just one day8 and thenceforth was seen by ethnic Armenians living here as their sole protector in an otherwise hostile Turkic world. 2002: Et tu, Shyhmyradov? -------------- ¶3. (C) However, after the 2002 violent coup attempt against President Niyazov, Kalachyan said, relations declined precipitously, largely due to the fact that one of the plot,s main plotters, former Deputy Chairman of International Relations and Minister of Foreign Affairs Boris Shyhkmyradov has an Armenian mother, speaks Armenian fluently and was well-connected to Ashgabat,s Armenian community. As a consequence, the sense of betrayal felt by Niyazov is intense, since he stood up to guarantee their safety and was rewarded by an attack on his life by one of this community, according to Kalachyan. Already paranoid about outside enemies and forces, Niyazov,s mistrust had severe consequences among the ethnic Armenian minority, and strongly impacted relations with Armenia itself, which Kalachyan described as &cold8 with &no hope of progress.8 Armenians in Turkmenistan: Twice Cursed -------------- ¶4. (C) Today, Armenians are still one of the largest ethnic minority populations in Turkmenistan, with roughly 30,000 living throughout Turkmenistan, mostly in the cities of Ashgabat and Turkmenbashy. Yet, every year the population continues to dwindle as life becomes harder economically for all citizens, but especially for non-ethnic Turkmen, who are virtually excluded from government positions, according to Kalachyan. Along with the economic impetus, the lack of educational opportunities has also forced the Armenian youth to study elsewhere, with 15-20 students per year studying in Yerevan through an Armenian government program, and even more going to Russia to complete high school so that they can enter university there. Kalachyan pointed out that almost anywhere in the world that there is an Armenian population, there are Armenian schools, newspapers and churches. But in the current political climate in Turkmenistan, &it is simply not possible.8 ¶5. (C) According to Kalachyan, roughly 300 families apply every year to resettle permanently in Armenian, but there may be many more, since although there is a visa regime between the two countries, it is &very easy8 for ethnic Armenians to get tourist visas, and once they are in Armenia can easily choose to apply for 10-year validity residence permits. In his opinion, &many, many more8 Armenians have already immigrated to Russia where they have family members and there are greater economic opportunities. ¶6. (C) Speaking more generally, Kalachyan talked about Niyazov,s desire to isolate the population, take away their ASHGABAT 00000644 002 OF 002 education, and eliminate connections to the outside world, and how it has increased sharply since the 2002 coup attempt. &He is always keeping his thumb on them,8 he said. When asked why the international Armenian Diaspora organizations do not openly protest or lobby Niyazov, he said that this would only exacerbate the situation. &If Niyazov received such (a letter of protest) at first he would make a few changes, but later on would make things even worse8 for the lives of ethnic Armenians. Everyone Hates Armenia -------------- ¶7. (C) Throughout the conversation with PolOff, Kalachyan whispered conspiratorially, nervously scanning the deserted caf in case someone was lurking and listening to what he had to say. He also went on several long tangents, and had a variety of conspiracy theories to share. Some of the more interesting ideas he posited were that Israel didn,t support the Armenian quest for genocide recognition in the U.S. Congress through &its American pro-Israel lobby,8 that the Azerbajianis are working to stop the Georgians from selling gas to Armenia, that the Russians are paying &big money8 to destabilize Georgia, and that the Turkish &special services8 recruit ethnic Turkmen who study at Turkish universities to create a cadre of secret "pro-Turkey" supporters in Turkmenistan for after Niyazov dies. Turkmenistan Post-Niyazov: Chaos, Turco-Russian Rivalry -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) As to what would happen in a post-Niyazov Turkmenistan, Kalachyan was firm in his belief that it would be nothing short of protracted civil war. Describing a situation of &intense ethnic conflict8 between the various tribal groups of Turkmenistan, he thought that &the mullahs8 would exert influence and that &the power would have to be divided among them.8 He described Turkmenistan as a place that is &very secure8 with Niyazov in power, but &without stability8 if he were not in power. He also thought that foreign actors would take part, especially Turkey, whom he described as having &many business interests8 in Turkmenistan, and Russia, &for the gas.8 He said that very few people &thought like the United States and the West,8 but that it would come down to which ones were on the side of these two countries in the end. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Although Kalachyan comes off as a colorful character with a number of paranoid fantasies, much of what he says rings true. While his view is colored strongly by Armenia,s often difficult foreign relations, his assessment of the experience of Armenians and people in general in Turkmenistan is spot-on: While Niyazov remains in power, ethnic minorities must either accept their role as second-class citizens or depart to take their chances elsewhere. End Comment. JACOBSON JACOBSON