TURKMENISTAN,S RELATIONS WITH ARMENIA: COLD AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000644

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SCA/CEN FOR LFRESE, EUR/CARC FOR KWITMER, BPRM FOR ETOURE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2016
TAGS: PREL SMIG TX AM PHUM
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN,S RELATIONS WITH ARMENIA: COLD AND
BLEAK


Classified By: AMBASSADOR TRACEY JACOBSON FOR REASONS 1.4(b) AND (d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) During two conversations with the Armenian Consul in
Turkmenistan Artak Kalachyan on June 12 and 13, PolOff
discussed the &cold8 state of relations between Armenia and
Turkmenistan, the plight of ethnic Armenians in Turkmenistan
and Kalachyan,s predictions for a possible post-Niyazovian
future. Although Armenians make up a significant minority
population in Turkmenistan, it is rapidly shrinking as life
becomes harder for everyone, but more so if one is not an
"ethnically-pure" Turkmen.
END SUMMARY.

1990s: Niyazov the Protector
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2. (C) Throughout the 1990s, Armenia enjoyed excellent
relations with Turkmenistan, with many Armenian businesses --
especially building subcontractors and electrical firms --
working on new construction projects in Ashgabat. At the
time of independence, there were over 80,000 ethnic Armenians
living in Turkmenistan, including a large number who fled
Azerbaijan during the 1991-1992 anti-Armenian ethnic violence
in the cities of Baku and Sumgayyit and the conflict in
Nagorno-Karabagh. Following their departure, according to
Kalachyan, Azerbaijani &agents provocateur8 allegedly
followed them to Ashgabat and Krasnovodsk (Note: Renamed
Turkmenbashy. End Note.),and tried to incite similar ethnic
conflicts in Turkmenistan against the Armenians. Niyazov
intervened &after just one day8 and thenceforth was seen by
ethnic Armenians living here as their sole protector in an
otherwise hostile Turkic world.

2002: Et tu, Shyhmyradov?
--------------


3. (C) However, after the 2002 violent coup attempt against
President Niyazov, Kalachyan said, relations declined
precipitously, largely due to the fact that one of the
plot,s main plotters, former Deputy Chairman of
International Relations and Minister of Foreign Affairs Boris
Shyhkmyradov has an Armenian mother, speaks Armenian fluently
and was well-connected to Ashgabat,s Armenian community. As
a consequence, the sense of betrayal felt by Niyazov is
intense, since he stood up to guarantee their safety and was
rewarded by an attack on his life by one of this community,
according to Kalachyan. Already paranoid about outside
enemies and forces, Niyazov,s mistrust had severe
consequences among the ethnic Armenian minority, and strongly
impacted relations with Armenia itself, which Kalachyan
described as &cold8 with &no hope of progress.8

Armenians in Turkmenistan: Twice Cursed
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4. (C) Today, Armenians are still one of the largest ethnic
minority populations in Turkmenistan, with roughly 30,000
living throughout Turkmenistan, mostly in the cities of
Ashgabat and Turkmenbashy. Yet, every year the population
continues to dwindle as life becomes harder economically for
all citizens, but especially for non-ethnic Turkmen, who are
virtually excluded from government positions, according to
Kalachyan. Along with the economic impetus, the lack of
educational opportunities has also forced the Armenian youth
to study elsewhere, with 15-20 students per year studying in
Yerevan through an Armenian government program, and even more
going to Russia to complete high school so that they can
enter university there. Kalachyan pointed out that almost
anywhere in the world that there is an Armenian population,
there are Armenian schools, newspapers and churches. But in
the current political climate in Turkmenistan, &it is simply
not possible.8


5. (C) According to Kalachyan, roughly 300 families apply
every year to resettle permanently in Armenian, but there may
be many more, since although there is a visa regime between
the two countries, it is &very easy8 for ethnic Armenians
to get tourist visas, and once they are in Armenia can easily
choose to apply for 10-year validity residence permits. In
his opinion, &many, many more8 Armenians have already
immigrated to Russia where they have family members and there
are greater economic opportunities.


6. (C) Speaking more generally, Kalachyan talked about
Niyazov,s desire to isolate the population, take away their

ASHGABAT 00000644 002 OF 002


education, and eliminate connections to the outside world,
and how it has increased sharply since the 2002 coup attempt.
&He is always keeping his thumb on them,8 he said. When
asked why the international Armenian Diaspora organizations
do not openly protest or lobby Niyazov, he said that this
would only exacerbate the situation. &If Niyazov received
such (a letter of protest) at first he would make a few
changes, but later on would make things even worse8 for the
lives of ethnic Armenians.

Everyone Hates Armenia
--------------


7. (C) Throughout the conversation with PolOff, Kalachyan
whispered conspiratorially, nervously scanning the deserted
caf in case someone was lurking and listening to what he had
to say. He also went on several long tangents, and had a
variety of conspiracy theories to share. Some of the more
interesting ideas he posited were that Israel didn,t support
the Armenian quest for genocide recognition in the U.S.
Congress through &its American pro-Israel lobby,8 that the
Azerbajianis are working to stop the Georgians from selling
gas to Armenia, that the Russians are paying &big money8 to
destabilize Georgia, and that the Turkish &special
services8 recruit ethnic Turkmen who study at Turkish
universities to create a cadre of secret "pro-Turkey"
supporters in Turkmenistan for after Niyazov dies.

Turkmenistan Post-Niyazov: Chaos, Turco-Russian Rivalry
-------------- --------------


9. (C) As to what would happen in a post-Niyazov
Turkmenistan, Kalachyan was firm in his belief that it would
be nothing short of protracted civil war. Describing a
situation of &intense ethnic conflict8 between the various
tribal groups of Turkmenistan, he thought that &the
mullahs8 would exert influence and that &the power would
have to be divided among them.8 He described Turkmenistan
as a place that is &very secure8 with Niyazov in power, but
&without stability8 if he were not in power. He also
thought that foreign actors would take part, especially
Turkey, whom he described as having &many business
interests8 in Turkmenistan, and Russia, &for the gas.8 He
said that very few people &thought like the United States
and the West,8 but that it would come down to which ones
were on the side of these two countries in the end.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Although Kalachyan comes off as a colorful character
with a number of paranoid fantasies, much of what he says
rings true. While his view is colored strongly by Armenia,s
often difficult foreign relations, his assessment of the
experience of Armenians and people in general in Turkmenistan
is spot-on: While Niyazov remains in power, ethnic
minorities must either accept their role as second-class
citizens or depart to take their chances elsewhere. End
Comment.

JACOBSON
JACOBSON