TURKMENISTAN LIKELY TO GAME VOTE ON GUATEMALA VS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASHGABAT 000326 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA A/S BOUCHER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2016 TAGS: GT PREL TX UNGA VE UNSC SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN LIKELY TO GAME VOTE ON GUATEMALA VS VENEZUELA REF: A. (A) STATE 49445 ¶B. (B) STATE 20173 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Jennifer L. Brush, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Turkmenistan's vote on the GRULAC seat for the UNSC is likely to depend more on GAZPROM negotiations and U.S. sponsorship of a UNGA Turkmenistan resolution than it will on Latin American politics. With the United States pushing so hard for Guatemala, GOTX likely will use its vote to punish/reward us as it sees fit. Minister of Foreign Affairs Meredov told Charge on March 27, "we will make our decision closer to the vote, we do not need any additional information in order to make our choice." End Summary. DEMARCHE DELIVERED -------------- ¶2. (C) Embassy delivered ref B demarche on February 8 and both Ambassador and DCM have raised the issue at frequent intervals with Minister of Foreign Affairs Meredov and Americas Desk Chief Bashimov. During a March 27 meeting on another subject, Meredov told Charge, "we will make our decision closer to the vote, we do not need any additional information in order to make our choice." At a March 29 meeting Americas Desk Chief Bashimov told Charge to stop asking about this, the GOTX would formulate its answer at a later date, closer to the actual vote. In response to Charge's comment that though she had no instructions to this effect, she wondered if the Russians would support Venezuela and whether Russian support for Venezuela would have any effect on Turkmenistan's vote, Bashimov said, "well you know the Venezuelans want to build that big pipeline and wherever there are pipelines you'll find Russian interest." COMMENT -------------- ¶3. (C) Unfortunately post has no knowledge of Venezuelan/Russian pipeline potential, but it is interesting that Bashimov agreed without hesitation that Russia was likely to support Venezuela. In this context, GOTX is likely to see the Guatemala-Venezuela contest as a classic Cold War confrontation, this time with Turkmenistan in a neutral role. We can expect Turkmenistan to use its vote to get whatever leverage it thinks it needs with either Russia or the United States as the actual vote approaches. GOTX will be watching to see whether the United States again co-sponsors a Turkmenistan-specific UNGA resolution, for example. Likewise it may use the vote as leverage if GAZPROM negotiations reach a peak as they tend to do during the UNGA season. Speculation aside, GOTX is unlikely to commit to either Guatemala or Venezuela until it sees an opportune time to do so. End Comment. BRUSH