TURKMENISTAN SURVIVES A WEEK WITHOUT NIYAZOV

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 001323 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (PERRY) E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL RS TX US SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN SURVIVES A WEEK WITHOUT NIYAZOV REF: A. (A) ASHGABAT 1289 ¶B. (B) ASHGABAT 1292 ¶C. (C) ASHGABAT 1295 ¶D. (D) ASHGABAT 1303 ¶E. (E) ASHGABAT 1311 ¶F. (F) ASHGABAT 1312 ¶G. (G) ASHGABAT 1313 ASHGABAT 00001323 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Jennifer L. Brush for reasons 1. 4 (B) and (D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Turkmenistan's first week of independence without Niyazov was eerily calm. After saying farewell to their first president with pomp and respect, the remaining powers in Turkmenistan's government rallied around Interim President Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov, even providing a well-intentioned, though implausible, show of nominating additional candidates for the February 11 presidential elections at the December 26 session of the Halk Maslahaty (People's Council). The new government's first bold act was to publicly condemn the Russian media for "provoking" the public (septel). As heads of mission stopped by the embassy to sign President Ford's condolences book, almost all asked Charge what the USG's next steps would be. Friendly missions agreed that we should avoid criticism of the upcoming elections, in spite of their flaws, and focus on giving the new administration a positive sign of the desire for change and increased cooperation. All also agreed that Berdimuhammedov already is sharing power, in the first instance with Foreign Minister Meredov and Minister of Defense Mammetgeldiyev. End Summary. The Funeral, Halk Maslahaty, and the Streets of Ashgabat -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Post again expresses its appreciation for the participation of A/S Boucher in the funeral events. Government, ordinary members of the public and friendly missions continue to comment on the positive signal A/S Boucher's participation and message provided to the people of Turkmenistan and to the region. The Turks, Georgians and Ukrainians, on the other hand, noted their bitter disappointment that not a single significant West European representative attended; the Germans and French barely succeeding in recalling their resident ambassadors from leave. As one ambassador from the Caucasus noted to Charge, "just stupid, that's all." During the funeral and at the Halk Maslahaty, heads of mission chewed over how to demonstrate to the new government the need for positive change, while acknowledging the government's priority on maintaining stability and the status quo. ¶3. (C) Though much of the diplomatic corps winced throughout the elaborate nominating process at the Halk Maslahaty, which was obviously staged for our consumption, friendly missions reinforced each other's consensus that it was unproductive to be overly critical of the proceedings. Acknowledging Turkmenistan's complete lack of democratic experience and historic isolation from the rest of the world, the like-minded diplomats concurred that the process was a well-intentioned, though unconvincing, attempt to give a positive signal to the west. In the end, we agreed we should concentrate on building a relationship with Interim President Berdimuhammedov and welcome the elections. ¶4. (C) The Halk Maslahaty seems to have had a calming influence on the street as well. According to embassy's conversations with neighbors, vendors and average citizens, the event was widely watched and the emergence of Berdimuhammedov as a "unanimous" nominee was more an ASHGABAT 00001323 002.2 OF 003 emolliant than an irritant. Berdimuhammedov's promises to pay salaries on time, double salaries in 2008 and guarantee free utilities are welcome. Likewise, locals notice that there have been no price increases in the markets, an exception to earlier practice when prices were raised immediately before the New Year. Democratic Party Chairman Musaev's emotional speech at the Halk Maslahaty praising Berdimuhammedov for keeping law and order and preventing chaos were also targeted at the average citizen's fear of an unstable future. Part of Niyazov's social contract -- and a pillar of neutality -- was to keep Turkmenistan safe from unrest and foreign interference. Locals were horrified by the 2005 events in Andijon, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan's civil war remains recent memory, Chechnya is not far away, and Turkmenistan has had Afghanistan's turmoil on its border for decades. Rebuking Russia -------------- ¶5. (C) Foreign Minister Meredov's public rebuke of Russia at the December 28 joint session of the National Security Council and Council of Ministers also sent a clear signal that the new administration would not tolerate foreign intervention. As reported septel, the Russian media has been feeding the public a variety of lurid rumors ranging from declaring Berdimuhammedov Niyazov's bastard child, to implicating the United States in Niyazov's death, to stating that Defense Minister Mammetgeldiyev was under arrest, to reporting "Russian pundits'" opinions that a coup or civil war was imminent, to ridiculing the nominations procedure. Meredov -------------- ¶6. (C) Foreign Minister Meredov arrived early in the morning December 29 to sign the condolence book for late President Ford. Though Meredov typically attends these events, Charge was pleasantly surprised he took the time to come on this occasion. Charge thanked Meredov for his strong statement on Russian media, saying much of the disinformation also was intended to discredit the United States. Meredov asked Charge to convey his government's appreciation for A/S Boucher's attendance at the funeral and his message of hopes for a new beginning. Meredov said that both he and Interim President Berdimuhammedov would have welcomed the opportunity to meet with A/S Boucher, but the decision had been made to not conduct any bilateral meetings during the funeral. Charge thanked Meredov for the government's efforts to host the U.S. delegation during the funeral and noted our interest in following up on A/S Boucher's message, specifically with a visit by DAS Feigenbaum the week of January 8, followed a visit by PDAS Mann the following week. In response to Charge's question, Meredov said the government would give serious consideration to arranging meetings with the Interim President during these visits. Charge also noted the outstanding request for a response to the USG's demarche on grave concerns over human rights in Turkmenistan and Meredov agreed to meet with her "soon." (Comment: Probably the fifth time Meredov has promised Charge this meeting. End Comment.) Condolences -------------- ¶7. (C) As heads of mission visited the embassy to sign the condolence book for late President Ford, a number of friendly missions (UK, Georgia, Turkey, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Romania, India, Pakistan and Japan) encouraged the U.S. to follow up on A/S Boucher's well-received message of a "new relationship" with high-level visits to Turkmenistan. ASHGABAT 00001323 003.2 OF 003 Georgia, Ukraine and Turkey also noted their profound disappoint with the poor showing by the West Europeans, thereby increasing their appeal to the USG to play a pivotal, though not overly critical, role in communicating with the new government. Friendly missions agreed that Meredov's broadside to Russia was a positive sign, and that they were hopeful the new government would send out positive signals it was ready for gradual change. The Georgian in particular noted that he hoped a gesture to Azerbaijani President Aliyev would be forthcoming. but said a meeting of the minds between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan was anathema to Russia. The Central Asians mostly were curious about what the United States would do next, and most expressed their hope for better relations with Turkmenistan. Russian Ambassador Blatov, who, unlike his predecessor, typically goes out of his way to avoid conversations with Charge, during visit to the embassy explicitely requested a meeting to "discuss events." Power-Sharing -------------- ¶8. (C) The Diplomatic Corps generally agree that Meredov's and Mammetgeldiyev's stars have risen and that these are positive signs. The international press has commented extensively on "power vacuums" and "power plays." The current constellation appears to consist of the interdependent Berdimuhammedov/Meredov/Mammetgeldiyev troika, none of whom can rule without the others' support. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Embassy concurs with the consensus for caution, patience and respect for Turkmenistan's fear for its stability. During the leadup to the elections, embassy has notified the government it plans to visit all five welayats and meet with all the candidates. In the meantime embassy welcomes the Department's proposal to send DAS Feigenbaum and PDAS Mann to Turkmenistan during successive weeks and also welcomes a visit by an interagency team to discuss Turkmenistan's assistance/cooperation priorities. Our message should be positive and hopeful, yet clear in our expectations. Though in the past Berdimuhammedov has not shown evidence of democratic leanings, the elaborate nomination procedure, ascent of Meredov and positive reception of A/S Boucher's message requesting a new relationship all constitute a real opportunity for the USG to help Turkmenistan along the road to democracy, prosperity and security. End Comment. BRUSH