NIYAZOV DEATH SITREP 001: 12/21/2006

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 001292 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN, NSC FOR DAVID MERKEL, DS/IP/SCA AND DS/DSS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC CASC TX SUBJECT: NIYAZOV DEATH SITREP 001: 12/21/2006 REF: ASHGABAT 1289 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Jennifer L. Brush for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Post has learned that Afghanistani President Karzai, Ukrainian President Yushchenko, Kazakhstani President Nazarbajev, Uzbekistani President Kerimov and Tajikistani President Rahmonov are planning to attend the funeral. In addition Armenian Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan, Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli, Azerbaijani Prime Minister Artur Rasizade, Turkish Prime Minister Ergogan and Vice President of Iran Dowoodi will attend. Russian Federation attendance still is unclear, Prime Minister Fradkov currently is scheduled, but President Putin is in Kiev and may fly into Ashgabat on Friday. Niyazov's death is an historic opportunity to send a clear signal that we desire a new relationship with the new government. Embassy will send suggestions for defining this new relationship septel, but USG attendance at the funeral will be the first opportunity to send this signal. To this end, embassy requests A/S Boucher consider heading the USG delegation. Proposed text for consolation letters from President Bush to Interim President Berdimuhammedov, and from Secretary Rice to Foreign Minister Meredov are contained in para 6. ¶2. (C) The newly created "National Security Council" immediately charged Mejlis (Parliament) Chairman Atayev with "various crimes" and he reportedly already is in jail. The Council declared Deputy Chairman of the Council of Ministers Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov interim President. The Halk Maslahaty (People's Council) will meet at 3:00 pm (local) on December 26, likely to confirm Berdimuhammedov as Turkmenistan's interim president and may also amend the constitution to allow him to run for president and/or declare him president, foregoing elections. Ashgabat remains calm, as do the provinces, according to local sources, though there is a substantially heightened police presence. All embassy staff and amcits are safe and are either in Ashgabat or on their way back. The diplomatic corps mainly has busied itself today with sorting out the news and determining delegations. End Summary. Already Monkey-Business -------------- ¶3. (C) The official media has announced the creation of a "National Security Council," whose exact membership is unknown. One of the Council's first acts was to charge Mejlis (Parliament) Chairman Atayev with various crimes; he reportedly already is in jail. The Council appointed Deputy Chairman of the Council of Ministers Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov interim president. The Halk Maslahaty, empowered to set a date for national elections, change the constitution, or even declare Berdimuhammedov president, is scheduled to meet December 26 at 1500 hours. Though Berdimuhammedov earlier told local diplomats he thought he was in trouble, he now has outlasted Niyazov and observers agree he is the president of choice for Turkmenistan's security apparatus. Berdimuhammedov, a dentist by training, is well-known to the embassy as a rapid nationalist with a bad temper. Berdimuhammedov was the likely choice for president even before he decided to get rid of Atayev. He appears to have foregone attempts to become president legitimately in favor of ensuring he gets the job. There is unlikely to be more visible maneuvering before the December 26 Halk Maslahaty. Atmosphere: Calm Under Heavy Police Presence -------------- ¶4. (C) Ashgabat remains calm -- even numbed -- under a heavy police presence. New Years decorations are coming down and some local residents have been observed weeping in the markets and on the streets; most likely out of fear of the unknown. Embassy has witnessed one act of jubilation, a car ASHGABAT 00001292 002 OF 002 carrying a Turkmenistan flag drove honking with the driver and passengers cheering past the President Hotel. American Corners representatives in the welayats (provinces) note that all is quiet and that people are showing little emotion. There is no official curfew but police sources tell RSO there will be a heavy police presence on the streets this evening. The government ordered all weddings to ben canceled, and ordered all discos and bars closed. Some planning travel outside of Turkmenistan have told emboffs all citizens have been banned from traveling into or out of Turkmenistan through at least December 24. Embassy activated the warden system. Proposed Condolence Letters -------------- ¶5. (C) Post welcomes condolence letters from President Bush to Interim President Berdimuhammedov and from Secretary Rice to Foreign Minister Meredov and suggests the following language: Begin Text of Letter to Interim President Berdimuhammedov: Please accept my condolences on the occasion of the death of President Saparmyrat Niyazov and allow me to congratulate you on your appointment as Turkmenistan's Interim President. Though the occasion is sad, the United States looks forward to your leadership in building a new relationship with the people of Turkmenistan. In the coming days, as the people select their new president, be assured the United States Government stands ready to support the development of democracy, prosperity and security in Turkmenistan. You and the people of Turkmenistan are with us in our thoughts and our prayers as you mourn the passing of your president. Begin Text of Letter to Foreign Minister Rashit Meredov: Please accept my condolences on the occasion of the death of President Saparmyrat Niyazov. The Department of State appreciates all the efforts you have made to create a rich and productive bilateral relationship and hopes to continue working with you during the transition to a new administration. In the coming days, as the people select their new president, be assured the United States Government stands ready to support the development of democracy, prosperity and security in Turkmenistan. You and the people of Turkmenistan are with us in our thoughts and our prayers as you mourn the passing of your president. BRUSH