INTER-ISLAND TENSION FLARES ANEW IN THE COMOROS

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001410 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/FO, AF/E PARIS FOR D'ELIA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM CN SUBJECT: INTER-ISLAND TENSION FLARES ANEW IN THE COMOROS REF: ANTANANARIVO 1307 ¶1. (SBU) The tension between the Union and Island governments of the Union of the Comoros is mounting in the run-up to Island presidential elections anticipated for March 2007. Union President Sambi met in Moroni the week of December 11 with the three Island Presidents to implement agreements delineating Island versus Union competencies in three areas: justice, management of public corporations and internal security. While reaching broad agreement on the first two issues, the two sides angrily broke off discussion December 15 over the issue of security, with the main sticking point being the types of weapons that Island security forces would be allowed to carry and use. Anjouan Island President Bacar, who is known for his secessionist talk and tense relationship with Union President Sambi (reftel),particularly resisted the call to hand over his security forces' weapons arguing that Union forces are unable to ensure Anjouan's security. ¶2. (SBU) According to the French Charge in the Comoros, this conflict reached a head December 18 when Union President Sambi commandeered a commercial Comoros Aviation flight to send a contingent of 30 soldiers of the Armee National du Developpement (AND) to enhance the Union security presence on the island of Anjouan. It is apparently within Sambi's legal rights to do so, but this was a step that no previous Union President had been willing to try. Learning of this plan, Anjouan gendarmes went to the airport and notified the flight that it would be denied permission to land. A detachment of 20 to 30 Union soldiers already on the ground in Anjouan had gone to the airport to welcome the aircraft; they departed peacefully when the Anjouan gendarmes asked them to leave. Rather than escalate the conflict, Sambi apparently ordered the AND troops off of the flight, and the aircraft proceeded to Anjouan carrying only civilians and then continued on to Mayotte. ¶3. (U) At the moment, the situation in Anjouan is calm, and the airport remains open. While talk of secession is ever-present in Anjouan politics, contacts in Anjouan have heard no such public comments related to this morning's events. Some contacts depicted the morning's events as a "misunderstanding" that is currently under negotiation, as Anjouan authorities were not informed of the airplane's arrival ahead of time. Still, the Union Government is setting up a crisis committee, which will likely be led by the Minister of Defense, who also serves as Sambi's Chief of Cabinet. ¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: In our conversations with the political leadership in the Comoros - both the Union and Island varieties - we have stressed that a cooperative way forward is essential to address the fundamental problems of the people. These problems are almost entirely economic - a lack of social services, a lack of jobs, a lack of growth prospects. However, as long as these inter-island political problems persist, their ability to address the economic problems will be hampered, as will the foreign donors' ability to assist the Comoran people. Our impression is that Sambi understands this and wants to improve the lot of the people of the Comoros. The Island Presidents make some valid points, but they generally appear most interested in preserving their personal power and prerogatives. This is unlikely to be the last Union/Island conflict in the run-up to the Island elections slated for the first half of 2007. END COMMENT. MCGEE