UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001351

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT: ELECTION DAY CALM, PRESIDENT IN THE LEAD


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REFTEL: ANTANANARIVO 1348 AND PREVIOUS


1. (U) SUMMARY: A calm and relatively orderly presidential
election December 3 was marred by just one incident of ballot
tampering in the south. Turnout appears to have been strong and
very preliminary results have President Marc Ravalomanana in the
lead, with over 50 percent of the vote, despite strong regional
results for Roland Ratsiraka and Jean Lahiniriko. According to
Embassy observers, most polling station officials distinguished
themselves despite complex voting rules, imperfect electoral lists,
and inadequate training. All attention now focuses on vote
tabulation -- it could be three weeks or more before the High
Constitutional Court certifies official results. END SUMMARY.

CALM PREVAILS DECEMBER 3
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2. (SBU) Madagascar exhaled late December 3 when a calm election
day wound down and ballot counting began. Despite heavy afternoon
rain in Antananarivo and several coastal cities, participation
appears to have been between 55 and 65 percent of registered voters.
Preliminary results have President Ravalomanana in a comfortable
lead with nearly 60 percent of votes counted, but the early returns
are weighted to Ravalomanana's urban strongholds, making it still
too soon to assure the 50 percent he needs to avoid a second round
run-off. Roland Ratsiraka, nephew of the last President, made a
strong showing in his home province of Tamatave and in Diego Suarez,
while former Assembly Speaker Jean Lahiniriko did well in his native
Tulear. Herizo Razafimhaleo, who appeared to be the lead challenger
at the end of the campaign, appears to have had a disappointing
showing. The lone woman in the field, Elia Ravelomanantsoa, is
running in sixth place, but with less than two percent of the vote.
Of the eight candidates tallying behind her, two or three may have
literally no votes as their ballots were not present in the polling
stations. Because of Madagascar's complicated multiple b

allot
system, there was variance in the number of candidates whose ballots
were available at various polling stations, from 12 down to a low of

8. According to national television reports, four candidates,
namely Manandafy Rakotonirina, Monja Roindefo, Gen Razakarimanana,
and Philippe Tsiranana did not have ballot papers and voters
actually had to choose between ten candidates.

Tulear Incident An Exception
--------------


3. (U) Of more than 17,500 polling stations, only one major
incident was reported, in Tulear, where vandals destroyed three
ballot boxes. The district office quickly replaced the boxes so the
remaining voters could participate. Police are investigating, and
eight suspects have been arrested. The Embassy's observer teams in
17 of Madagascar's 22 regions reported no other incidents of vote
tampering at the over 400 polling stations they visited in total.
News outlets and other observer teams reported similarly calm
atmospherics.


4. (SBU) In general, observers reported polling station officials
to be serious and professional, but also lacking in adequate
training. Madagascar's multiple ballot system and complex
regulations led to minor inconsistencies in implementation as well
as occasional delays. Given significant inaccuracies in voter
rolls, special provisions allowed voters to obtain an affidavit or
to vote with two witnesses to their identity to avoid being
disenfranchised. Despite these provisions, a few polling stations
are reported to have turned away as many as ten percent of
prospective voters. Post-election complaints about the electoral
lists continue to discomfit the European Union for their two million
euro investment, but such problems were overwhelmingly procedural;
there has been no evidence to date of any systematic effort to
disadvantage any particular candidates.


5. (SBU) On Monday, December 4, the Ambassador visited the counting
center at the Ministry of the Interior, which had been given primary
responsibility for the conduct of these elections. Interior
Minister Rabemananjara welcomed the Ambassador and showed him the
facilities his Ministry was offering for observers, journalists and
civil society to witness the process to assure its transparency.

Take A Deep Breath: The Vote Count
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6. (SBU) Before congratulating anyone too early, Malagasy and
international observers alike note election day was equally calm in
2001 before the onset of the governance crisis. The real test comes

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as results slowly trickle in from 17,500 polling stations to 116
district offices, and from there to the High Constitutional Court.
During the three weeks it may take for any official declaration,
Post expects several candidates and NGOs to publicize their own
results. Some opposition candidates will no doubt continue to
challenge the electoral process, blame their poor showing on GOM
malfeasance, and register numerous official complaints.


7. (SBU) The Ambassador will continue to make two simple points
with the local media and interlocutors: 1) Our expectation that, if
the results warrant a second round run-off, it will be held as
required under Malagasy law; and 2) Any candidate who has not
prevailed should play a peaceful and constructive role in the
aftermath of the election, be it in opposition to the new government
or elsewhere in society.

COMMENT: U.S. ROLE HELPFUL
--------------


8. (SBU) Embassy teams and our international colleagues reported a
significant presence of Malagasy NGO observers from the "CNOE"
network that was funded and trained by the United States Government
through the National Democratic Institute. Their presence on
election day and during results tabulation is making an important
contribution to the transparency and thus the credibility of this
election.

MCGEE