GENERAL FIDY STILL AT LARGE AFTER COUP ATTEMPT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 001304

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/FO, AF/E, INR/AA, DRL
FOR DS/IP/AF AKORT
FOR DS/DSS/ITA DROTHSTEIN
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR ASEC CASC MA
SUBJECT: GENERAL FIDY STILL AT LARGE AFTER COUP ATTEMPT

REF: ANTANANARIVO 1297


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Antananarivo is calm and quiet in the wake of the
failed weekend coup attempt although the "coup" leader, General
Fidy, remains in hiding and in occasional contact with the press.
Fidy appears to have grossly over-reached as few military officers
rallied to his cause. During his short-lived takeover of Ivato Air
Force Base, a number of weapons and ammunition were stolen; all have
now been returned. Although slow in responding, the Government of
Madagascar (GOM) has now issued a statement reassuring the public
and appealing for calm in the run-up to the December 3 Presidential
election. The Embassy continues to monitor the situation closely
and will issue an updated warden message to Americans if the
situation shows any signs of deteriorating. At the moment, that
appears unlikely. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Three days after a failed "coup attempt" resulting in the
death of one soldier (reftel),the GOM has reclaimed Ivato Air Force
Base, but General Andrianafidisoa (Fidy) remains at large. Police
forces and gendarmes searched his home over the weekend, reportedly
pursuant to an arrest warrant. Embassy security contacts report
President Ravalomanana was furious when he heard news of the attempt
and demanded Fidy be brought in at once. Meanwhile, General Fidy
continues to give local and international press interviews from a
secret location.

SIPDIS


3. (U) In several interviews, General Fidy has described and
justified his actions of November 17 and 18. He insists if the GOM
truly wanted to find him, it would be possible by tracking his phone
calls. Fidy has also said his efforts do not constitute a "coup
attempt," because Ravalomanana's government is not legitimate.

GOM Reaction
--------------


4. (U) Over 24 hours after the attempted coup, the GOM issued a
statement, signed by the Minister of Telecommunications, on radio
and television acknowledging General Fidy's actions, assuring it had
taken "the necessary measures," and appealing for the "calm,
vigilance and wisdom" of the Malagasy people (full text in Paragraph
11). The GOM called for solidarity against seditious actions to
ensure free, fair and transparent elections on December 3.


5. (U) At a campaign rally in Antananarivo November 19, President
Ravalomanana warned his opponents not to work with "troublemakers,"
and insisted the rule of law would prevail in Madagascar. The
President defiantly stated he will not be frightened by threats. He
cautioned all journalists - Malagasy and international - and media
outlet owners in Madagascar against publishing "unchecked news."
(Note: A BBC report numbered Fidy's supporters at 100, by far the
highest estimate. Fidy has been on the front page of most local
newspapers the last three days. End Note).


6. (SBU) Consistent with GOM efforts to downplay the situation, GOM
General Raonenantsoamampianina, Head of the Army General Staff, said
in a national television interview that this is an internal military
argument that will be handled "in the family." Some of our military
contacts pointed out that the lack of following for General Fidy was
a positive sign for Madagascar's democracy. In addition, they
reported that all of the weapons taken during the short-lived
takeover of Ivato Air Force Base have been recovered and returned to
their armories.

Protest at Embassies?
--------------


7. (SBU) On November 18 Antananarivo's Radio ACEEM broadcast a
declaration by Pierre Tsiranana (brother of presidential candidate
Philippe Tsiranana, of the PFDM, and son of the first Malagasy
president) calling for "sit-ins" at the French, Japanese and
American Embassies to protest the international community's support
for the December 3 election date. Opposition contacts report a
final date for demonstrations has not been selected, but confirmed
that planning for possible demonstrations at foreign missions was
ongoing.


8. (SBU) Several opposition officials have told the Embassy that
most of the 13 opponent candidates are meeting regularly to
coordinate strategy. While no opposition candidate has a national
following, some have regional bases of support and significant
financial resources:

-- Fianarantsoa natives Pety Rakotoniaina and Herizo Razafimahaleo

ANTANANARI 00001304 002 OF 003


are outspoken opponents of Ravalomanana with supporters in south
central Madagascar;

-- Tamatave Mayor Roland Ratsiraka is unpopular in his own city,
but has name recognition, money, and the support of some politicians
from the old regime;

-- Former transition president Norbert Ratsirahonana is the biggest
threat to Ravalomanana's Antananarivo Merina ethnic base. He
repeatedly denies publicly that he will withdraw to support the
President;

-- Ny Hasina Andriamanjato, a wealthy former Minister, lost to
Ravalomanana in the Antananarivo mayoral election and holds a
grudge. His father, opposition figure Pastor Andriamanjato,
publicly endorsed General Fidy's actions;

-- Jean Lahinrinko (former National Assembly President) and
Manandafy each has substantial resources and public followings in
the southern Tulear province.

Emergency Action Committee Reconvenes
--------------


9. (U) Ambassador reconvened the Emergency Action Committee (EAC),
meeting at 1000 local time November 20 to discuss the situation.
Members agreed that calm still prevailed in Antananarivo, with
people going about their business and no particular threat to
Americans. There is no evidence of an enhanced security presence.
The EAC agreed there was no need to issue an immediate Warden
Message but may propose one later this week to remind Americans to
be aware of election activities leading up to and after December 3
and to remain vigilant with regard to personal security.

COMMENT:
--------------


10. (SBU) Slow to give a public response, the GOM has now made
significant efforts to downplay the weekend's events. One
culturally-rooted explanation for the delayed response is that to
acknowledge the event would be to lend it importance. Another
Malagasy interpretation is that General Fidy was not apprehended
because he would somehow be more problematic as a "martyr" if he
were a prisoner. Yet another conspiracy theory suggests that
President Ravalomanana orchestrated the entire affair; perhaps to
give him an excuse to crack down on the opposition. The
half-hearted nature of General Fidy's attempt and his easy escape
are equally perplexing. Some Embassy GOM contacts insist Fidy is
being closely monitored, while others assert he will be arrested as
soon possible. Opposition candidates are reportedly meeting
November 20 to decide how to react to (read: take advantage of)
General Fidy's actions. From a security standpoint, Post assesses
little has changed, but the election campaign has certainly become
even more complex. END COMMENT.


11. Text of Statement by the GOM
--------------

STATEMENT BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MADAGASCAR

For the sake of transparency, the Government of Madagascar has the
duty of providing information to its citizens on the recent events
taking place in the country, particularly in the capital.

Since the decision made during the May 9, 2006 Cabinet Meeting,
related to the presidential election, certain political groups
constantly planned actions pertaining to disinformation and
perturbation in order to prevent the said election at all costs.

Such irresponsible outbursts can only harm national unity.

What happened on November 17, 2006, further illustrates this fact:

Some handouts were distributed throughout the city, indicating that
General Randrianafidisoa had taken power;

After a failed attempt to take the Ministry of National Defense,
General Randrianafidisoa forced his way into the Ivato Air Force
Base;

He seized the weapons and ammunitions at the base, and took some
officials as hostages;


ANTANANARI 00001304 003 OF 003


This led to exchanges of fire, during which a military officer was
shot dead by assailants.

In the face of such divisive actions and the different rumors
spreading, the Government of Madagascar is taking care of its
responsibilities and calls on the population to remain calm, but
also to show caution and wisdom.

Let us remain one and show solidarity against these actions of
insurrection, so that we can protect our national sovereignty and
democracy.

That is the only way to guarantee freedom and transparency during
the December 3 presidential elections, which is meant to be a model
in Africa.

Antananarivo, November 19, 2006.

The Minister of Telecommunications,
Posts and Communication

//signature//
Bruno Ramaroson ANDRIATAVISON

END TEXT.

MCGEE