PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES SET IN MADAGASCAR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 001186 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/FO, AF/E, INR/AA, INR/B and DRL PARIS FOR D'ELIA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES SET IN MADAGASCAR REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 001142 B) ANTANANARIVO 001136 C) ANTANANARIVO 000649 D) ANTANANARIVO 000464 ANTANANARI 00001186 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On October 18, Madagascar's High Constitutional Court (HCC) officially approved 14 out of 18 candidates for the upcoming December 3 presidential election. The HCC rejected controversial candidate Pierrot Rajaonarivelo because his application did not comply with Malagasy law regarding the certification of his signature; the other three rejected candidates had not paid the registration fee. At this point, President Ravalomanana remains the clear front-runner with only one or two others plausibly able to develop a national following to be considered serious contenders in the upcoming election. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) The HCC President announced that the electoral campaign will start on November 12 and will end on December 2 at 7:00 am. On December 3, polling stations should open at 7:00 am and close at 6:00 pm. Post offers the following initial thumbnail information on the 14 candidates, listed roughly in order of political influence: a) President Marc RAVALOMANANA, age 57, is up for reelection after a hotly contested election in 2002. He has said that he plans to continue his work to date, particularly the implementation of the Madagascar Action Plan (MAP) for development. A wealthy self-made businessman, he hails from the highlands and was formerly Mayor of Antananarivo, but his support base is national in scope. b) Jean LAHINIRIKO, in his early 50's, is the former President of the National Assembly. Once a member of President Ravalomanana's "I Love Madagascar" (TIM) political party, he resigned from TIM earlier this year after being ousted from his position at the National Assembly due to internal dissension within the TIM party and his public criticism of the President. Hailing from the coastal city of Tulear, his platform focuses generally on national amnesty for the 2002 election crisis, the fight against terrorism and improving the standard of living of the Malagasy people. c) Norbert Lala RATSIRAHONANA, in his late 50's, is currently the president of the AVI political party. Originally from Antananarivo, his former posts include President of the HCC, Chief of State, ;Advisor to President Ravalomanana, and Itinerant Ambassador. His platform will be a continuation of what he started in 1996 as acting Head of State after the impeachment of President Zafy -- namely, negotiations with the IMF and the World Bank, respect for human rights, democracy, and good governance -- with a new emphasis on nation-wide economic development and the fight against terrorism. d) Pety RAKOTONIAINA, in his early 40's, is currently the mayor of the City of Fianarantsoa. Formerly an influential supporter of Ravalomanana, Pety helped the President win the key highland province of Fianarantsoa in the 2002 crisis. Pety left his senior post at the MFM party in 2005 to create his own competing political association, TAMBATRA. Now known for his vocal criticism of President Ravalomanana, his platform focuses generally on improving the standard of living for the Malagasy people, with a focus on combating cattle rustling. e) Roland RATSIRAKA, 40 years old and nephew of former president Didier Ratsiraka, is currently the mayor of the coastal city of Toamasina (aka Tamatave). He will run under his own political party, TTS. His platform focuses on promoting private sector development and national security. f) Rakotonirina MANANDAFY, in his early 60's and the oldest of all the candidates, has made four failed attempts to run for the presidency in the past. President of the MFM party - widely regarded as a troublemaker for its expertise in organizing massive street demonstrations - Manandafy is currently a political advisor to President Ravalomanana (although he is reportedly rarely consulted). Also from Fianarantsoa, Manandafy has begun to distance himself from the President by criticizing his management style and greed; however, he has not yet voiced a specific platform for the future. g) Herizo RAZAFIMAHALEO, in his late 40's, is the former Vice-Prime Minister of Foreign Affairs and the founder of the LEADER/FANILO political party, from which he recently resigned but still maintains strong ties. Originally from Fianarantsoa, this is his third attempt at running for the presidency, this time as an independent. A businessman with an MBA degree from University of Michigan, his platform focuses on promoting economic development. He has criticized the donors for "meddling" in Madagascar's internal ANTANANARI 00001186 002.2 OF 003 affairs. h) Ny Hasina ANDRIAMANJATO, in his mid-40s and educated in the former USSR, is a former Minister of Telecommunication and was Ravalomanana's adversary during the municipal election in 1999. Having vowed that he will never work with Ravalomanana in the future, he has been working quietly under the radar in the pre-election period. His father and mentor, Pastor Richard Andriamanjato, is well-known in Madagascar as one of the leaders of the opposition hard-liners. He is originally from Antananarivo. i) Phillipe TSIRANANA, in his late 40's, is the son of Philibert Tsiranana, Madagascar's first President. Having lived all of his SIPDIS adult life overseas, his only real credibility stems from his family legacy. From the province of Mahajunga, his platform focuses generally on continuing his father's work. j) Roindefo MONJA, in his early 40's, is the son of the now deceased Malagasy nationalist Monja Jaona, a well-known political figure from the Province of Tulear. Like President Ravalomanana, he is a self-made businessman and is currently the leader of the political party Monima K founded by his father. He has been largely silent regarding his political platform for the future. k) Army General Ferdinand RAZAKARIMANANA, in his early 50's, was formerly provincial head in Antananarivo. Appointed to that position by President Ravalomanana, he was later fired for "insubordination" and replaced by a civil servant. He has since joined the opposition hard-liners. A surprise candidate, he has not yet voiced a platform. l) Elia RAVELOMANANTSOA, in her early 50's, is the first and only woman ever to run for the presidency. A businesswoman from the highlands, she is mostly known as the organizer of the annual fashion show "Manja," which promotes young Malagasy designers. Her political platform focuses on raising the profile of women in Madagascar. m) Presbyterian Pastor Daniel RAJAKOBA, in his late 50's, lost the 2001 presidential race by a landslide. From Mahajunga, he has not yet voiced a political platform. n) Pastor Jules RANDRIANJOARY, in his early 50's, is a completely unknown figure on the political scene who calls himself a "ray aman-dreny" (an elder) candidate. Also from the highlands, his platform is to put national life in the hands of the Holy Spirit. ¶3. Following are the four candidates who were rejected: Pierrot RAJAONARIVELO, in his mid-50's and former Vice-Prime Minister in Charge of Budget and Decentralization during Ratsiraka's regime, is most notable for his controversial attempts over the past few weeks to return to Madagascar from a self-imposed exile in Paris that began after the last presidential elections (Refs A and B). His political message to his supporters, based mainly in the coastal city of Tamatave, has focused solely on the transgressions of the 2002 elections and "saving his people" from the poverty exacerbated by the current government's policies. The HCC ruled that the candidacy of Rajaonarivelo could not be accepted because the certification of his signature was done in Paris on 2 October 2006; according to Malagasy law, certification of signature can only be done by appropriate local officials in Madagascar. The HCC also ruled, in convoluted legalistic reasoning, that Rajaonarivelo still enjoys his civil and political rights despite his earlier conviction (still under appeal) and the outstanding arrest warrant against him. The following candidates were rejected because they failed to pay the registration fee: Army General ANDRIANAFIDISOA, in his late 50's, was the key military officer who helped Ravalomanana take control of the five remaining provinces (outside Antananarivo) during the 2002 crisis. Appointed and subsequently fired by Ravalomanana from the positions of Chairman of the Board of SECREN and Director General of OMNIS, he has since expressed his hatred for the President. He reportedly expressed his intention to join forces with Pety Rakotoniaina if his candidacy is rejected in order to complicate Ravalomanana's candidacy. Andrianjaka RAJAONAH and ANDRIAMANOSY, alias Bema, are both unknown figures. ¶4. (U) Of Madagascar's six provinces, Antsiranana (also known as Diego) is the only one not represented among the 18 candidates. ANTANANARI 00001186 003.2 OF 003 ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: The general lack of political platforms reflects the reality that, in Madagascar, it is personalities and not policies or parties that drive the political process. As such, the divided opposition is unlikely to rally behind any single candidate to try to bring the anti-Ravalomanana forces under one banner. The vast majority of the candidates listed above are not considered to be serious contenders for the presidency; their candidacy may be partly intended to split the vote in the hopes of a runoff election and partly intended to gain leverage to trade for a post-election reward. Only President Ravalomanana and a handful of others -- namely Pierrot Rajaonarivelo, Jean Lahirinko, and Norbert Lala Ratsirahonana -- have any sort of national following. END COMMENT. MCGEE