THWARTED RETURN OF EXILE RAISES POLITICAL TENSIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001142 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR S/ES-O DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV DEPARTMENT FOR CA/OCS/ACS/AF - DONLON PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC CASC MA SUBJECT: THWARTED RETURN OF EXILE RAISES POLITICAL TENSIONS REFTEL: 1) ANTANANARIVO 01136 2) ANTANANARIVO 01135 CLASSIFIED BY CDA GEORGE N. SIBLEY FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The low-level political tension in Madagascar continues after the Government of Madagascar (GoM) closed a coastal airport on Saturday, October 7 to prevent the return of exiled political leader Pierrot Rajaonarivelo from Paris via Riunion. RajaonariveloQs supporters have peacefully stepped back for the moment, but from his fallback position in Mauritius the ex-Vice Prime Minister continues to urge his supporters to carry out retaliatory nationwide strikes and to promise he will return to Madagascar using whatever means necessary in the remaining days of the registration season for presidential candidates. GoM officials are seriously concerned about Rajaonarivelo's ability to destabilize the political situation in advance of the elections and are apparently divided over his ultimate intentions - whether he is simply bluffing to create trouble for the current administration or intent on returning at any cost. The perception of the GoM's ability to conduct peaceful presidential elections - and the credibility of President Ravalomanana himself - have been somewhat shaken by the events of the past weekend. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Following media reports last week that Rajaonarivelo was scheduled to land in Toamasina (also known by the French name Tamatave) on an Air Austral flight on Saturday afternoon, approximately 1,000 of his AREMA opposition party supporters gathered at the airport to welcome him. Given the tension surrounding the GoM's pledge to arrest Rajaonarivelo upon arrival for crimes of which he was convicted in absentia (reftel),the GoM dispatched approximately 500 troops - a combination of police, gendarmerie and military - to the airport in anticipation of unrest among his supporters. The demonstrators quickly overwhelmed the barriers at the airport, despite the troops firing several tear gas canisters, but the confrontation did not escalate further and resulted in no injuries. The standoff culminated in the early afternoon with the Ministry of Transportation's decision to close Toamasina airport to all international flights, citing security concerns. ¶3. (SBU) From his current location, now reported to be in Mauritius, Rajaonarivelo is urging all political leaders to join him in calling for President Ravalomanana's resignation and continues to publicly declare that he will return to Madagascar using whatever means necessary, no matter what the price, well before registration season for presidential candidates closes on October 14. According to police sources, Rajaonarivelo may come on a Thursday, October 12 flight from Mauritius and will ask his supporters to meet him to prevent his arrest at the airport. ¶4. (SBU) Rajaonarivelo is also calling for a general nation-wide strike in retaliation. Post expects there will be some strikes around the country as at least one high-level Rajaonarivelo supporter in the parliament is traveling around the country to incite unrest; however, it is too early to assess the effectiveness of these appeals. Rajaonarivelo's party has also taken out full-page newspaper ads appealing to the international community to get involved or risk having elections that are not free and fair. ¶5. (C) Some GoM officials we have spoken to are seriously concerned about Rajaonarivelo and his supporters' ability to destabilize the political situation in advance of the elections and are apparently divided over Rajaonarivelo's ultimate intentions - whether he is simply bluffing to create trouble for the current administration or intent on returning at any costs. Believing that Rajaonarivelo may go so far as to charter a private plane, the Director of Military Affairs in the Office of the Presidency (protect) suggested that the general tenor of high-level government meetings taking place today is, "things are getting bad." The Minister of Interior (protect) separately noted that a number of Rajaonarivelo;s colleagues and supporters had already flown to Madagascar from Reunion earlier last week, bolstering the belief that Rajaonarivelo's intent is to create trouble. ¶6. (U) The weekend's events also confirmed a three-way split in the fractured AREMA party. The hard-liners gathered in Toamasina announced their official support for Pierrot Rajaonarivelo's candidacy for president. The faction faithful to former President Didier Ratsiraka will officially boycott elections. Finally, the smaller and more moderate wing, AREMA Matotra, will officially back President Ravalomanana's candidacy. ¶7. (U) Local media outlets reported on Embassy Antananarivo's warden message cautioning all U.S. citizens to avoid travel to the Toamasina area, spinning the significance of this message according to their political bias. ANTANANARI 00001142 002 OF 002 ¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: Last week, President Ravalomanana promised that all exiles are welcome to return to Madagascar but would face the judicial consequences upon landing. GoM officials have clarified to us that the Air Austral flight was free to land in Antananarivo but opted not to do so. Media reports have widely criticized the Presidentss decision to close Toamasina airport, and at this point we tend to concur that the decision made him look weak at best and fearful at worst. END COMMENT. SIBLEY