C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 001136

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR S/ES-O
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV
DEPARTMENT FOR CA/OCS/ACS/AF - DONLON
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2016
TAGS: ASEC CASC MA PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: TEST-2 RETURNING EXILE RAISES TENSION IN MADAGASCAR


Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY DCM GEORGE N. SIBLEY FOR REASONS 1.4
B AND D.


1. (C) SUMMARY. The planned return to Madagascar of an exiled
political leader, Pierrot Rajaonarivelo, has the potential to trigger
unrest in some parts of the country. Rajaonarivelo, a former Vice
Prime Minister and the Secretary General of the AREMA Party, has been
tried and sentenced in absentia for crimes arising in part from his
role in the 2001-2002 crisis following the last presidential
elections. He is expected to be arrested on his arrival if he returns
-- as he has told his supporters he will -- on Saturday, October 7.
END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) With presidential elections set for December 3, 2006, the
leading opposition AREMA Party has requested amnesty for its exiled
leaders to return from France to Madagascar to contest the election.
Rajaonarivelo has headed AREMA since 1997 when Didier Ratsiraka was
elected president and was constitutionally required to relinquish his
political post. Rajaonarivelo served as Vice Prime Minister in charge
of Budget and Decentralization during Ratsiraka's term (1997-2002).
Former President Ratsiraka is also in exile in France, but he is
elderly and retains modest political support; Rajaonarivelo is the
preferred AREMA candidate.


3. (SBU) President Ravalomanana has said publicly that the exiles are
welcome to return, but must face the judicial consequences if they do
so. In March 2003, Rajaonarivelo was tried and sentenced in absentia
to 5 years imprisonment for complicity and abuse of power. After
appeal the sentence was reduced to three years in May 2005, an outcome
that has again been appealed by Rajaonarivelo's legal team. In a
separate case, Rajaonarivelo was sentenced to 15 years of hard labor
for embezzlement in August 2006; his legal team chose not to be
present at this trial to preserve the right to protest the legality of
the sentence. The government's position is that Rajaonar

ivelo should
be jailed pending the outcome of his appeal; AREMA claims that the
sentence was unjust and politically motivated, and that he should be
free pending the outcome of the appeal in any case.


4. (C) AREMA scheduled a three-day national conference in the coastal
city of Toamasina (also known by the French name Tamatave) for October
7-9. Our AREMA contacts report that Rajaonarivelo has left Paris and
flown to the Indian Ocean island of Reunion on October 6, and that he
will fly into Toamasina from Reunion on the afternoon of October 7.
French Ambassador Le Roy called the Ambassador October 5 confirming
this report. Our contacts in the Madagascar police tell us 500 troops
have already been positioned in Toamasina and that a designated team
has been instructed to meet the plane and arrest Rajaonarivelo on
arrival. The arresting officer, who is known to us, is concerned that
there may be a large crowd meeting Rajaonarivelo and that there might
be significant potential for violence if he carries out his orders.
He has apparently told his superiors that he will not carry out these
orders if the situation appears likely to spin out of control.
Separately, President Ravalomanana's Chief of Staff (protect) has told
us that if Rajaonarivelo is on board, the flight is likely to be
diverted to Antananarivo to effect the arrest away from the AREMA
supporters.


5. (C) Earlier this week Rajaonarivelo wrote to President Chirac
seeking French intervention on his behalf with President Ravalomanana.
He reportedly mentioned the risk of imminent trouble and repression
if he were arrested. In particular, he expressed concern that he could
not prevent the "cotiers" (coastal inhabitants) from seeking revenge
against the Merina (the dominant ethnic group on the high plateau).
Several AREMA sympathizing newspapers have published paid full-page
advertisements in advance of Rajaonarivelo's expected return. In them
Rajaonarivelo requests, in a lightly veiled threat, that the military
forces stand aside, "the blood of the Malagasy people should not be
shed with your weapon." The paid ad also states: "In fact, if there
is no freedom, it would be impossible to meet the hopes of the U.S.
Embassy for a free and fair election." Many of our Malagasy contacts,
disputing the French Ambassador's public claims of neutrality, believe
the French Government is covertly supporting Rajaonarivelo in his
effort to oust President Ravalomanana.


6. (SBU) The Emergency Action Committee met to discuss the potential
for violence over the weekend and the Consular Section is preparing a
warden message (Septel).


7. (C) COMMENT. Politically, President Ravalomanana's popularity has
declined since the 2001 election, but the AREMA Party's base of
support, due to its own poor record when governing, is weaker still.
Rajaonarivelo and AREMA have raised the stakes irresponsibly by
playing the ethnic card. Tensions between the coastal and highland
people in Madagascar have a long history and playing on this division,
if successful, risks turning a political contest into a quasi-ethnic
conflict. END COMMENT.

MCGEE