TURKISH OFFICIALS SHARE CONCERNS ON IRAN, IRAQ,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006735

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2026
TAGS: PREL PTER KPAL IS IZ IR SY LE XF TU
SUBJECT: TURKISH OFFICIALS SHARE CONCERNS ON IRAN, IRAQ,
AND MIDDLE EAST WITH ASD RODMAN


Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary. Assistant Secretary of Defense Peter Rodman
discussed Iraq, Iran, and the Middle East with Turkish
Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul and MFA Deputy Undersecretary
Rafet Akgunay on the margins of December 12-13 High Level
Defense Group talks in Ankara. Rodman described his
discussions at the Gulf Cooperation Council meeting in
Bahrain and the Gulf states' fear that Iran seeks regional
hegemony -- pursuing nuclear weapons, seeking to destabilize
Iraq and Lebanon, and arming Palestinian rejectionists and
terrorist. Rodman stressed that Turkey and Iraq are natural
allies; we will not abandon Iraq and are committed to Special
Envoy Ralston's mission to stop PKK violence emanating from
northern Iraq. Gonul and Akgunay agreed, describing Iran as
the main threat to Turkey, the region, and beyond. Gonul
stated that partition of Iraq would bring Iran closer to its
goals, while Akgunay warned that any sanctions must be
carefully applied. Akgunay defended Turkish engagement with
Syria but stressed that Ankara supports Lebanon and said PM
Erdogan will travel to Beirut soon. All agreed that Turkey
and the U.S. share converging strategic goals and that close
bilateral cooperation on regional challenges is more
essential than ever. End summary.


2. (C) On Iraq, Rodman stressed the U.S. commitment to Iraq's
unity and the importance of Special Envoy Ralston's mission,
noting Ralston's December 11 discussions with Turkish envoy
Baser in Stuttgart. The U.S. understands that concrete
results are needed, that we must put the PKK problem behind
us and work on improving Turkey - Iraq cooperation as natural
allies in the region. The U.S. will continue to use its
influence with Iraqi Kurds to reach a solution. Akgunay
noted the negative public perception of the U.S. due to the
situation in Iraq and the irony that the PKK is attacking
Turkey from what is now a friendly, not hostile, country.
Turkey has tried to help Iraq get on its feet, losing more
truck drivers to Iraqi violence than most Coalition members
have lost troops. Akgunay noted that the handling of
Kirkuk's status is crucial for Turkey. Rodman urged that the
GOT continue to engage the Iraqi government to resolve
bilateral issues.


3. (C) Gonul expressed appreciation for the U.S. decision to
elevate the PKK from Tier 3 to Tier 2 in our intelligence
threat assessment. He described the artificial nature of the
PKK as well as historical infighting between Iraqi Kurd
leaders Barzani and Talabani; he feared more strife in
northern Iraq if the U.S. were to pull out prematurely. He
expressed concern that Turkish troops based in northern Iraq
could be endangered by deteriorating security there and said
Turkey would be compelled to protect them. ASD Rodman
explained U.S. efforts to convince SCIRI leader al-Hakim,
during the latter's visit to the U.S., to drop his insistence
on a loose federal structure for Iraq that would risk
partition of the country.


4. (C) ASD Rodman described his recent consultations with
Arab allies in the Gulf in the context of the Gulf Security
Dialogue, noting those countries' perception of the growing
threat of Iranian hegemony. The Gulf allies now view Iraq
through the prism of Iranian hegemonic ambitions, along with
Iranian ties with Syria as well as Hezbollah and Hamas.
Those allies do not want us to engage with Iran or Syria, as
suggested by the Iraq Study Group report. Akgunay drew a
distinction between Iran and Syria, noting that Syria is more
dependent on its external relations. The GOT believes it is
necessary to engage Syria, otherwise it will drift even more
completely into Tehran's orbit. Meanwhile, Iran sees its star
rapidly rising and is gaining in confidence. Akgunay said
that Turkey agrees a nuclear-armed Iran is a threat to
Turkey, the region, and beyond. Gonul stated flatly that
Iran is the major external threat to Turkey and warned that
partition of Iraq would bring Iran closer to its goal of
regional domination.


5. (C) Asked whether the conflict in the region was between
Arabs and Persians, Akgunay replied that the religious fault
lines, including among the Shi'a, were far more dangerous.
They portend domestic upheaval in Saudi Arabia as well. He
described PM Erdogan's recent trip to Tehran, where he passed
the right messages from the P5 1. Iran should not get a free

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ride, but Akgunay warned that sanctions which harm
neighboring countries will be counter-productive. Iran will
also seek to divide the P5 1 and this must be avoided by
keeping China and Russia on board on any Security Council
resolution. Rodman emphasized the risk of watering down
sanctions, stressing that Iran's hegemonic ambitions and
ideological threat cannot go unanswered. He stressed that
Iran must get the message that its aggressiveness will be
resisted; the Turkey -- U.S. alliance is more essential than
ever in this regard.


6. (C) On Syria, Rodman stressed that Damascus is actively
seeking to topple the Beirut government. We must support
Lebanon against these efforts. Akgunay reported that PM
Erdogan will travel to Beirut soon to offer his support. He
also noted Turkey's substantial support to UNIFIL. He argued
that Turkey's diplomacy seeks to change Syrian behavior by
patient engagement of Bashar Asad's government. In response,
ASD Rodman warned that Syria always seeks to exploit
engagement to show it is not isolated. Bashar is reckless
and as long as he feels no consequences, he will continue his
bad behavior. Rodman and Akgunay agreed that we must
ultimately seek to separate Iran and Syria.


7. (C) Gonul promised that Turkey will remain a reliable ally
for the U.S. and will maintain close ties with Israel as
well. He described ongoing Turkish defense cooperation with
Israel and reported that Turkey has invited Israeli Prime
Minister Olmert to visit in the near future. At the same
time, he added, Turkey will maintain ties with the
Palestinians.


8. (U) This cable was cleared by OSD.

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WILSON