TURKISH OFFICIALS SHARE CONCERNS ON IRAN, IRAQ,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006735 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2026 TAGS: PREL PTER KPAL IS IZ IR SY LE XF TU SUBJECT: TURKISH OFFICIALS SHARE CONCERNS ON IRAN, IRAQ, AND MIDDLE EAST WITH ASD RODMAN Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary. Assistant Secretary of Defense Peter Rodman discussed Iraq, Iran, and the Middle East with Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul and MFA Deputy Undersecretary Rafet Akgunay on the margins of December 12-13 High Level Defense Group talks in Ankara. Rodman described his discussions at the Gulf Cooperation Council meeting in Bahrain and the Gulf states' fear that Iran seeks regional hegemony -- pursuing nuclear weapons, seeking to destabilize Iraq and Lebanon, and arming Palestinian rejectionists and terrorist. Rodman stressed that Turkey and Iraq are natural allies; we will not abandon Iraq and are committed to Special Envoy Ralston's mission to stop PKK violence emanating from northern Iraq. Gonul and Akgunay agreed, describing Iran as the main threat to Turkey, the region, and beyond. Gonul stated that partition of Iraq would bring Iran closer to its goals, while Akgunay warned that any sanctions must be carefully applied. Akgunay defended Turkish engagement with Syria but stressed that Ankara supports Lebanon and said PM Erdogan will travel to Beirut soon. All agreed that Turkey and the U.S. share converging strategic goals and that close bilateral cooperation on regional challenges is more essential than ever. End summary. ¶2. (C) On Iraq, Rodman stressed the U.S. commitment to Iraq's unity and the importance of Special Envoy Ralston's mission, noting Ralston's December 11 discussions with Turkish envoy Baser in Stuttgart. The U.S. understands that concrete results are needed, that we must put the PKK problem behind us and work on improving Turkey - Iraq cooperation as natural allies in the region. The U.S. will continue to use its influence with Iraqi Kurds to reach a solution. Akgunay noted the negative public perception of the U.S. due to the situation in Iraq and the irony that the PKK is attacking Turkey from what is now a friendly, not hostile, country. Turkey has tried to help Iraq get on its feet, losing more truck drivers to Iraqi violence than most Coalition members have lost troops. Akgunay noted that the handling of Kirkuk's status is crucial for Turkey. Rodman urged that the GOT continue to engage the Iraqi government to resolve bilateral issues. ¶3. (C) Gonul expressed appreciation for the U.S. decision to elevate the PKK from Tier 3 to Tier 2 in our intelligence threat assessment. He described the artificial nature of the PKK as well as historical infighting between Iraqi Kurd leaders Barzani and Talabani; he feared more strife in northern Iraq if the U.S. were to pull out prematurely. He expressed concern that Turkish troops based in northern Iraq could be endangered by deteriorating security there and said Turkey would be compelled to protect them. ASD Rodman explained U.S. efforts to convince SCIRI leader al-Hakim, during the latter's visit to the U.S., to drop his insistence on a loose federal structure for Iraq that would risk partition of the country. ¶4. (C) ASD Rodman described his recent consultations with Arab allies in the Gulf in the context of the Gulf Security Dialogue, noting those countries' perception of the growing threat of Iranian hegemony. The Gulf allies now view Iraq through the prism of Iranian hegemonic ambitions, along with Iranian ties with Syria as well as Hezbollah and Hamas. Those allies do not want us to engage with Iran or Syria, as suggested by the Iraq Study Group report. Akgunay drew a distinction between Iran and Syria, noting that Syria is more dependent on its external relations. The GOT believes it is necessary to engage Syria, otherwise it will drift even more completely into Tehran's orbit. Meanwhile, Iran sees its star rapidly rising and is gaining in confidence. Akgunay said that Turkey agrees a nuclear-armed Iran is a threat to Turkey, the region, and beyond. Gonul stated flatly that Iran is the major external threat to Turkey and warned that partition of Iraq would bring Iran closer to its goal of regional domination. ¶5. (C) Asked whether the conflict in the region was between Arabs and Persians, Akgunay replied that the religious fault lines, including among the Shi'a, were far more dangerous. They portend domestic upheaval in Saudi Arabia as well. He described PM Erdogan's recent trip to Tehran, where he passed the right messages from the P5 1. Iran should not get a free ANKARA 00006735 002 OF 002 ride, but Akgunay warned that sanctions which harm neighboring countries will be counter-productive. Iran will also seek to divide the P5 1 and this must be avoided by keeping China and Russia on board on any Security Council resolution. Rodman emphasized the risk of watering down sanctions, stressing that Iran's hegemonic ambitions and ideological threat cannot go unanswered. He stressed that Iran must get the message that its aggressiveness will be resisted; the Turkey -- U.S. alliance is more essential than ever in this regard. ¶6. (C) On Syria, Rodman stressed that Damascus is actively seeking to topple the Beirut government. We must support Lebanon against these efforts. Akgunay reported that PM Erdogan will travel to Beirut soon to offer his support. He also noted Turkey's substantial support to UNIFIL. He argued that Turkey's diplomacy seeks to change Syrian behavior by patient engagement of Bashar Asad's government. In response, ASD Rodman warned that Syria always seeks to exploit engagement to show it is not isolated. Bashar is reckless and as long as he feels no consequences, he will continue his bad behavior. Rodman and Akgunay agreed that we must ultimately seek to separate Iran and Syria. ¶7. (C) Gonul promised that Turkey will remain a reliable ally for the U.S. and will maintain close ties with Israel as well. He described ongoing Turkish defense cooperation with Israel and reported that Turkey has invited Israeli Prime Minister Olmert to visit in the near future. At the same time, he added, Turkey will maintain ties with the Palestinians. ¶8. (U) This cable was cleared by OSD. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON