TURKEY: PM ERDOGAN TO VISIT LEBANON IN THE NEXT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 006722 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2016 TAGS: PREL LE SY TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: PM ERDOGAN TO VISIT LEBANON IN THE NEXT TEN DAYS REF: A. ANKARA 6617 ¶B. ANKARA 6574 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner - Reasons 1.4 (b) a nd (d) ¶1. (C) MFA Middle East Head of Department Sedat Onal told us December 21 Prime Minister Erdogan does intend to travel to Lebanon during the upcoming Muslim Sacrifice holiday, which this year begins December 30 and ends January 3. GOT officials had indicated to us earlier (reftels) Erdogan's intention to visit Lebanon at some point during his recent tour of regional capitals but had been unable to provide a specific timeframe for the visit. ¶2. (C) According to Onal, Erdogan is expected to visit Turkish troops participating in the UNIFIL operation in south Lebanon as well as Beirut. Erdogan has underscored GOT support for PM Siniora's government during his meetings in both Tehran and Damascus, pressing both the Iranians and Syrians to end efforts to destabilize Lebanon and to urge Hizballah ministers to re-enter PM Siniora's cabinet. ¶3. (C) However, Onal noted that despite Erdogan's close ties to Siniora (they reportedly speak by phone at least several times a week, with calls initiated from both capitals), Turkey's policy priority is stability in Lebanon. The Turks are hopeful regarding Arab League Amr Moussa's mediation efforts. They also are supportive of a compromise on the composition of a new cabinet and hope it will be worked out along the lines of formulae that have been the focus of discussions in Beirut in recent days, with either a 19-9-2 or even 19-10-1 split of cabinet positions between Siniora's party and the opposition parties, including the possibility of a new President being named. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: The GOT continues its effort to raise Turkey's profile in its immediate neighborhood. Erdogan hopes to improve Turkey's ability to influence events in areas where continued or increased instability could have negative repercussions for Turkey itself. Diminishing the chances of that, while burnishing his own credentials as an international statesman as Turkey enters an election year, is helping to drive Turkey's current Middle East policy focus. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON