Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ANKARA6638
2006-12-12 11:04:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:
NO DEAL YET ON GEORGIA GAS
how-toVZCZCXRO2613 RR RUEHAG RUEHDBU RUEHROV DE RUEHAK #6638 3461104 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 121104Z DEC 06 FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0270 INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0827 RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV 0103 RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 1783 RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC RUEUITH/ODC ANKARA TU RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 5337 RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 006638
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
USDOC FOR 4212/ITA/MAC/CPD/CRUSNAK
DOE FOR CHARLES WASHINGTON
EUR ALSO FOR MATT BRYZA
S/P FOR STEVE HELLMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2016
TAGS: ENRG EPET PREL TU GG AJ RS
SUBJECT: NO DEAL YET ON GEORGIA GAS
REF: A. TBILISI 3211
B. BAKU 1807
C. ANKARA 6623
D. ANKARA 6569
Classified By: ECON/C TOM GOLDBERGER FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D)
C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 006638
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
USDOC FOR 4212/ITA/MAC/CPD/CRUSNAK
DOE FOR CHARLES WASHINGTON
EUR ALSO FOR MATT BRYZA
S/P FOR STEVE HELLMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2016
TAGS: ENRG EPET PREL TU GG AJ RS
SUBJECT: NO DEAL YET ON GEORGIA GAS
REF: A. TBILISI 3211
B. BAKU 1807
C. ANKARA 6623
D. ANKARA 6569
Classified By: ECON/C TOM GOLDBERGER FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D)
1. (C) From a Turkish perspective, the results of the
December 8 meeting of energy ministers in Tbilisi looks much
less like a "deal" than Georgian and Azeri officials are
claiming (refs A-B). Our multiple readouts underscore that
Turkey is willing to help Georgia with gas volumes in this
winter's potential gas crisis, but, as we have noted, it
continues to need an arrangement to offset the cost of
postponing its expected receipt of Shah Deniz gas at cheaper
contracted prices (Refs C-D). Minister Guler is not able to
attend the follow-on meeting December 14 in Baku, because of
a long-standing and oft-postponed visit to Israel. We
understand technical experts from BOTAS and the Energy
Ministry will attend. Our contacts expect that another
higher level political meeting may be necessary to get to yes
on a Georgia gas deal, especially if Georgia and Azerbaijan
are not able to offer some equitable way of sharing the
costs.
2. (C) Minister Guler has made clear to us that for
domestic political reasons Turkey cannot bear alone the cost
of bailing Georgia out of its gas crisis, or for helping
Azerbaijan and Georgia achieve independence from Gazprom
while it remains dependent on the company. Given that both
BOTAS and Shah Deniz have experienced significant delays in
being ready to move gas in the BTE gas pipeline, discussion
of penalties will not be fruitful for getting to a deal.
Some sort of formula that shifts quantities into 2008 at
currently contracted prices seems to be what Turkey needs.
Both Consortium and GOT experts have told us this could be
easily devised.
3. (C) Guler believes that delaying receipt of gas over the
winter is already a sacrifice given concerns about Turkey's
winter supplies, which are threatened by unreliable supplies
from Iran and covered by high-priced supplies from Russian
and via LNG (Ref A). Efforts to box Turkey in may risk
delaying the deal, as well as delaying timely delivery of
needed volumes to Georgia.
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/
WILSON
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
USDOC FOR 4212/ITA/MAC/CPD/CRUSNAK
DOE FOR CHARLES WASHINGTON
EUR ALSO FOR MATT BRYZA
S/P FOR STEVE HELLMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2016
TAGS: ENRG EPET PREL TU GG AJ RS
SUBJECT: NO DEAL YET ON GEORGIA GAS
REF: A. TBILISI 3211
B. BAKU 1807
C. ANKARA 6623
D. ANKARA 6569
Classified By: ECON/C TOM GOLDBERGER FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D)
1. (C) From a Turkish perspective, the results of the
December 8 meeting of energy ministers in Tbilisi looks much
less like a "deal" than Georgian and Azeri officials are
claiming (refs A-B). Our multiple readouts underscore that
Turkey is willing to help Georgia with gas volumes in this
winter's potential gas crisis, but, as we have noted, it
continues to need an arrangement to offset the cost of
postponing its expected receipt of Shah Deniz gas at cheaper
contracted prices (Refs C-D). Minister Guler is not able to
attend the follow-on meeting December 14 in Baku, because of
a long-standing and oft-postponed visit to Israel. We
understand technical experts from BOTAS and the Energy
Ministry will attend. Our contacts expect that another
higher level political meeting may be necessary to get to yes
on a Georgia gas deal, especially if Georgia and Azerbaijan
are not able to offer some equitable way of sharing the
costs.
2. (C) Minister Guler has made clear to us that for
domestic political reasons Turkey cannot bear alone the cost
of bailing Georgia out of its gas crisis, or for helping
Azerbaijan and Georgia achieve independence from Gazprom
while it remains dependent on the company. Given that both
BOTAS and Shah Deniz have experienced significant delays in
being ready to move gas in the BTE gas pipeline, discussion
of penalties will not be fruitful for getting to a deal.
Some sort of formula that shifts quantities into 2008 at
currently contracted prices seems to be what Turkey needs.
Both Consortium and GOT experts have told us this could be
easily devised.
3. (C) Guler believes that delaying receipt of gas over the
winter is already a sacrifice given concerns about Turkey's
winter supplies, which are threatened by unreliable supplies
from Iran and covered by high-priced supplies from Russian
and via LNG (Ref A). Efforts to box Turkey in may risk
delaying the deal, as well as delaying timely delivery of
needed volumes to Georgia.
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/
WILSON