TURKEY: ANAVATAN PARTY HEAD MUMCU IN A MUDDLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006626 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2021 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU AM SUBJECT: TURKEY: ANAVATAN PARTY HEAD MUMCU IN A MUDDLE ANKARA 00006626 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson, reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. In his second visit with Motherland (Anavatan) party leader Erkan Mumcu, on November 24, Ambassador Wilson heard the party's perspective on the coming election year, the Kurdish question, and foreign relations. Mumcu heads one of only two opposition parties with "group" status in the parliament. Mumcu's muddled plan for the election year, already well underway for all other parties in Turkey, suggests a dismal future for the party. It is unlikely that the party will make it over Turkey's 10 percent threshold, but even if it does, Anavatan has very little to bring to the table. END SUMMARY. -------------- Election Year 2007: Armchair politics -------------- ¶2. (C) Mumcu said he has no doubt Prime Minister Erdogan will be a candidate for president in the spring. Otherwise, Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) would be a mess; it would not be easy to keep the party stable because the fight between the would-be candidates would cause havoc. The Turkish public does not want Erdogan to be president; not even those who wanted him to be prime minister. Should Erdogan become president, however, alternative coalitions would have a shot at forming a government after the parliamentary elections in November 2007. ¶3. (C) Mumcu complained that AKP does not give Anavatan its constitutionally-mandated political money to run its campaign. Anavatan has taken the issue to court, and the case should be decided in the next 45 days. The court of first instance ruled in favor of Anavatan, but it was appealed to a higher court. For 2006-2007, Anavatan is entitled to $26 million. AKP has $110 million for 2007 alone. ¶4. (C) Mumcu described Anavatan's election year plan. By the end of March, Anavatan will be embedded in people's minds. Right now Anavatan is at 6-6.5 percent in the polls (Mumcu's claim is considerably higher than most published polls) but when it surpasses 10 percent, things will change for the party. The next four months will be crucial. ¶5. (C) The term "stable AKP government" is misleading, Mumcu said, because if AKP gets a second term, it will focus on its own mentality and agenda. Erdogan supports Iran and nuclear proliferation; this is the real Erdogan, and his leadership would lead to more anti-Americanism. Mumcu claims that an AKP in control of both the presidency and the parliament would derail Turkey from its true path. They may seem Muslim and democratic, but if AKP controls both branches, we should expect the Ba'ath Party in Turkey, he said. -------------- - Motherland Myopia: Trite slogans, no substance -------------- - ¶6. (C) When asked what Anavatan would say to the Turkish people to set them apart from other parties, Mumcu claimed Anavatan could help rebuild the democratic right wing. He described Anavatan as a conservative, republican party that can maintain a more liberal policy -- something between western liberal and conservative parties. He hinted that by March, there may be some "interesting developments." Anavatan proposes real, decisive, and somewhat radical change in Turkey. It is not statist. The Kurdish issue is solvable; once you challenge the official state ideology, you can solve the relationship between the state and individual. Turkey's problems are based on education, taxes, entrepreneurship, bureaucracy, and the market. First, Turkey needs a foreign policy that is self-confident without complexes or prejudices; recognizes shared values between Turkey and America; is aware of its own contribution to that (bilateral) relationship; is aware that relations are global and competitive; and undertands the importance of America-Islam relation, which have gotten into a quagmire. The fundamental problem for Turkey is modernization of the Islamic mindset, according to Mumcu. First Turkey has to change the Muslim mentality into a secular one. -------------- ANKARA 00006626 002 OF 002 Kurds: No new thoughts -------------- ¶7. (C) The Kurdish question is the most important issue, not just for Turkey, but for Iraq, Iran, and Syria, Mumcu stated. There is no solution to the Kurdish problem without Turkish participation. Half of the world's Kurds live in Istanbul, Izmir, and Mersin. In Turkey, Kurds have the advantage of integration with the system. It is possible to unite the mentalities of Turks and Kurds, Mumcu claimed. Kurds are pro-secularism. It is misleading to say there is a "Kurdish geography" in Northern Iraq. Mumcu expressed concern about creating a "new Israel" in Iraq -- something that everybody would be against. -------------- -------------- Foreign Relations: Vague notions, no concrete ideas -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) "In spite of Turkish politicians, Turkey is an important country," Mumcu said, and Turkish-American relations are vitally important. Mumcu claimed to fear an increase in anti-Americanism in Turkey. Turkey has been double-talking: on the one hand, US-Turkish relations are important but on the other, Turkey takes a "third world stance." Turkey has taken wiser steps recently in its EU diplomacy, because the Brits and US played a role. "Cyprus is the only problem we cannot overcome; we have to either postpone it or solve it." Turkey will be able to solve all the other big ones (Turkey-US, Turkey-EU (sic),and Turkey-Middle East),Mumcu maintained, but Turkey must consider how to improve Turkey-Israel relations, which are extremely important on a strategic basis. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ MCELDOWNEY