TURKEY SHARES CONCERNS ABOUT STABILITY OF SINIORA

S E C R E T ANKARA 006546 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KDEM MOPS LE SY TU SUBJECT: TURKEY SHARES CONCERNS ABOUT STABILITY OF SINIORA GOVERNMENT, BUT NOT CONVINCED DAMASCUS NECESSARILY CALLING THE SHOTS REF: STATE 193090 Classified By: POL/C Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (S) DCM discussed reftel demarche Nov. 30 with Deputy Undersecretary Uzumcu, who undertook to raise the issue at the higher levels of the ministry. We also double-tracked with MFA Middle East Department Head Sedat Onal. Onal thanked us for sharing our concerns and noted that Turkey has also been looking carefully at events in Lebanon, particularly in light of the presence of Turkish troops in Lebanon as part of UNIFIL. However, Onal said Turkey has some doubts about the degree to which Syrian President al-Assad is orchestrating these destabilizing efforts. He said as a personal aside that it would be illogical for Syria to assassinate Minister Gemayel on the same day it was establishing diplomatic ties with Iraq and posited the theory that Iran perhaps had as much or more motive in moving against PM Siniora's government. Onal acknowledged that the SARG is not a monolithic entity, however, and that it is possible some elements of Syria's intelligence apparatus are involved. ¶2. (S) Onal underscored Turkish concern about Lebanon's stability, however, and said that PM Erdogan would likely stress the importance of supporting the Siniora government to al-Assad during Erdogan's planned visit to Damascus, dates for which have yet to be finalized. Onal indicated Erdogan is unlikely to travel to Syria before the new year, but perhaps in early January. He pointed to Erdogan's public remarks during the PM's November 24-26 visit to Amman, in which Erdogan stressed Turkey's view that Hizballah needs to remain in Siniora's government for the sake of peace and stability in Lebanon. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON