AKP PARTY CONGRESS: AIMING AT THE 2007 ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 006460 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2031 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: AKP PARTY CONGRESS: AIMING AT THE 2007 ELECTION REF: A. ANKARA 4102 ¶B. ANKARA 6727 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for Reasons 1.4(b), (d) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The second ordinary congress of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) saw Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan re-elected as party chairman without contest and conveyed an image of the five-year old party as a mature, sophisticated organization with a domestic focus but global reach. In his speech, Erdogan avoided or glossed over controversial topics, including the future of the party, to sing a number that hit all the right notes: Ataturk's principles, social solidarity, and AKP's many economic successes. The convention amended party by-laws to further consolidate power and control at the top to ensure a smooth transition from Erdogan to his likely heir, FM Gul, should Erdogan become Turkey's president in May. Funeral services for the late Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit distracted from the convention and delayed Erdogan's arrival by hours; although the subdued atmosphere may not have been as apparent on television, the party fizzled before his speech ended. After a full day of funeral coverage, viewer fatigue may have reduced the convention's audience at home, too. END SUMMARY. -------------- Snappy, Organized ...and Exhausted -------------- ¶2. (U) The November 11 convention, the AKP's second, was striking for its deft organization -- assigned seats, lanyards, badges, high-quality interpretation headsets, and bagged lunches for guests who waited much longer for the key speakers than originally planned. Out of respect for the funeral of former Prime Minister Ecevit held the same day, Erdogan ordered the folk dance performance cancelled, and the convention began with a moment of silence for Ataturk and Ecevit. Music did not begin until late afternoon, before party vice chairman Abdullah Gul arrived. Louder music and rapid-fire video montages of Erdogan with world leaders presaged the chairman's much-delayed entrance to enthusiastic cheering, chanting, and flag waving. ¶3. (SBU) Over the course of Erdogan's two-hour speech, however, energy levels fizzled. Originally set for morning, the speech was re-scheduled to two o'clock to accommodate Erdogan's attendance at Ecevit's funeral. It began closer to four, due to funeral-related delays. The bused-in crowds that had waited eagerly for Erdogan all day finally ran out of steam--and time: their buses were headed home. By the end of his speech, all the delegates on the floor were in place, but the risers were 70 percent empty. A few people even dozed off. -------------- An International Smorgasbord: All You Can Eat -------------- ¶4. (U) Breaking with past practice, the AKP invited foreign speakers to address the crowd, in addition to reading the telegrams from Tony Blair, Angela Merkel and others. Some of the 14 speakers hailed from ideological affiliates of the party or of Turkey (Macedonia, Bulgaria, Azerbaijan),but the roster transcended ideology to showcase AKP's global ANKARA 00006460 002 OF 004 connections. Organizers hastily rescheduled the guest speakers to fill the time before Erdogan's speech, but the extended program wore out the crowd. The European Liberals representative took the opportunity to blend praise for AKP's accomplishments with a patronizing lecture beginning with, "We want you to join, but you must understand what the EU is." The Chinese Communist Party representative's lengthy and ceremonial address was cut short by anxious organizers already well behind schedule. The Iraqi Islamic Party speaker won applause and whistles of support when he began his speech with the "bismallah" prayer. -------------- -------------- Erdogan's Speech: "Where Were We, and Where Are We Now?" -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) Erdogan's speech emphasized the AKP's economic successes, pointing out that life for regular Turks is more comfortable now than when AKP took office. He referred to single digit inflation, buying power, job creation ("we created as many jobs as there are civil servants"),and the reduction in interest rates. He talked about Turks traveling on airplanes "like they used to travel on the bus." He listed expanded educational capacity, improving hospital conditions, housing construction, natural gas being extended to 40 provinces, and KOYDES' role in bringing roads, water and infrastructure improvements to every city and village in Turkey. He pointed out AKP's big achievement of reducing the age to be elected to parliament from 30 to 25 and said that he hopes to see wo 25-year olds in the next parliament. He concluded by saying that Turkey was the 20th largest economy in the world and aspired to be the 6th biggest in the EU. ¶6. (U) Responding to growing tension in Turkish politics, Erdogan reacted to those who implicitly warn AKP with the slogan, "Turkey is secular and will remain secular," by objecting to politicizing Ataturk's principles: "they are simply to be implemented." "One should say: Turkey is a democratic, secular, social state of law. If one of these four principles does not exist, then the Republic of Turkey would remain incomplete on the path to becoming a state." ¶7. (U) On the big themes of social solidarity and peace, Erdogan decried discrimination on the basis of race, religion, region, and sex, and described social stability as the means to destroy the roots of terrorism. He claimed that AKP has three "redlines:" it rejects ethnic, regional, and religious forms of nationalism. He described the ethnic diversity in Turkey as its richness and said that no ethnic origin should be excluded; the tie between Turks of diverse backgrounds is their Turkish citizenship: citizens are Turks plus their ethnic origin. He acknowledged that some regions had been neglected and pointed to the village support program KOYDES as a tool to improve that situation. He gave a nod to the diversity of religious sects and denied any discrimination against them. ¶8. (U) On international issues, Erdogan portrayed Turkey as a world contributor. Turkish soldiers are not just defending borders, but bringing peace to the world. He reminded that the process of joining the EU started in 1959 and said, "We always stick to our promises in a way that suits our citizens." Recalling the Greek-Cypriot rejection of the Bergenstock agreement, he defended the government's record on Cyprus: "We gave Northern Cyprus the prestige that didn't ANKARA 00006460 003 OF 004 exist before us; you can't say that Cyprus has been given away." ¶9. (U) Erdogan touched only lightly on Israel/Palestine, saying that no human being could defend the bombarding of women and children. His words on Iraq were similarly measured and brief. He claimed 60 people are dying a day; the US is suffering 27,000 casualties and 3,000 deaths; 100-150 Turks providing logistical support have been killed. He welcomed the appointment of the Special Envoys for Combating the PKK, but warned that Turkey could not wait long for a positive result. ¶10. (U) On the character of the AKP, Erdogan declared, "We are a party of the center." In an effort to portray the party as one of conscious Muslims rather than one with an Islamic agenda, he said that AKP does not conduct "politics-of-identity" but rather "politics-with-identity," rejects extremism and fundamentalism, and is a people-oriented party: "We love the creation, because of the one who created it." This observation was one of the very few overt gestures Erdogan made to the faith community in his speech. -------------- AKP Takes a Bite out of Internal Democracy -------------- ¶11. (C) Undermining its reputation for intra-party democracy, AKP delegates adopted some amendment to the party by-laws that continued a recen trend toward internal authoritarianism (reftel A). Most significantly, a member seeking to become a candidate for party chairman must now obtain the signatures of 20 percent, or 291, of the delegates. The new threshold will make it easier for FM Gul, Erdogan's likely heir, to retain control should Erdogan decide to become president in May (reftel B) by limiting the number of challengers. Saban Disli, AKP Deputy Chairman for International Relations, admitted in a November 14 meeting that the change appears undemocratic and half-heartedly defended it as necessary to prevent members with marginal support from muddying the race for party chairman. In the same vein, Disli sheepishly explained that delegates voted to let the party chairman choose the 12 powerful deputies from among the 50 Central Decision Making Board members, rather than continuing to have the 50 elect the 12. Disli conceded that the changes were largely driven by delegates' commitment to Erdogan, and might need to be modified when the party leadership roster changed. ¶12. (C) Other by-law amendments pertained to party discipline, clarifying that members who criticize the party administrators in the media or who don't follow binding consensus decisions will face discipline, including expulsion. Certain amendments, such as ending the special status of 350 founding party members as "natural delegates", were in response to a prosecutor's complaint pending before the Constitutional Court. The party failed to make great strides in increasing participation by women, despite claims that this is a priority. The number of female Board members increased from 10 to 12 (7 without headscarf, 5 covered). Despite this positive, if modest step, by our calculations, only ten percent of the delegates were women (50 percent of those wore headscarves). ANKARA 00006460 004 OF 004 -------------- Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) Erdogan's speech affirmed that the AKP is driving for the center-right with a message of tolerance and inclusivity. He leaned hard on the AKP's acknowledged economic achievements to appeal to the pocketbook sense of housewives and working poor and to counter the media's undercoverage that has contributed to a general lack of appreciation of these achievements by ordinary Turks. His audience warmly received his reference to the Creator, but he did not particularly emphasize the issues -- in particular, education -- that speak to the more religiously oriented within his party. The uncontroversial speech and surrounding visuals conveyed an image of an internationalist, moderate, world-class leader, and contrasted starkly with the stridently nationalistic and belligerently anti-AKP tone heard of late from the secularist establishment, from President Sezer to opposition party leaders to the military. More than anything, the television-conscious image projection, the video montages of Erdogan embracing foreign leaders, and his preference for bridge-building language over substantively controversial issues or about the party's future all point to AKP's mindfulness of next November's parliamentary election. ¶14. (C) While many commentators detected subtle signs that Gul was Erdogan's anointed successor as party leader, the gestures toward Gul were more likely a continuation of a successful, if at times tense, unequal partnership with Erdogan at the helm and Gul and parliamentary speaker Bulent Arinc in supporting roles. (As speaker, Arinc could not attend the convention, but delegates received his telegram with wild enthusiasm). The convention was still clearly the Tayyip Erdogan Show. If this was indeed Erdogan's last address to the party, it seems clear he and the party leadership wanted to cement control and discipline, and lay the groundwork for a smooth handoff to Gul as the next party chairman. END COMMENT. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON