TURKEY: PRESIDENTIAL AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 006427 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: PRESIDENTIAL AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS SCHEDULE AND MECHANICS, 2007 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The coming year will bring presidential elections in the spring and parliamentary elections in the fall in Turkey. The presidency is an office elected by parliament, and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has enough seats to ensure their candidate becomes president. The variable, and the hottest political topic in town, is whether Prime Minister Erdogan will stand for the presidency in May or lead his party through to the November 4 parliamentary elections. His decision will set the tone for the national vote; if Erdogan grabs the presidential gold ring, his party will have a harder fight to wage to hold its current parliamentary majority. Although the presidential election calendar is relatively brief and straightforward, the national election calendar, which begins July 20 and culminates on election day, November 4, 2007, has yet to be confirmed. End Summary. -------------- Presidential Election Mechanics -------------- ¶2. (U) Under the 1982 Constitution, which regulates presidential elections in Turkey, the president is elected for a single, seven-year term by the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) from among its own members. The president must be over 40 years of age and have completed higher education, or must be elected from among Turkish citizens who fulfill these requirements and are eligible to be deputies. The nomination of a candidate from outside the TGNA requires a written petition signed by at least one-fifth of the total number of members of the Assembly (110 deputies). ¶3. (U) According to the Constitution, presidential elections must begin 30 days before the incumbent's term ends, or 10 days after the presidency falls vacant, and must be completed within 30 days of the date they begin. Within the first 10 days of this period, candidates must declare their candidacies to the Bureau of the Assembly. ¶4. (U) The candidate who receives two-thirds majority of the total number of seats (367 out of 550) becomes the president. If no one reaches that number in the first two ballots, separated by a three-day interval, a third ballot will be held. The candidate who receives a simple majority of votes of the total number of members (276 deputies) becomes president. If no single candidate obtains a simple majority in the third ballot, a fourth ballot will be held between the two candidates who receive the greatest number of votes in the third ballot; if a president cannot be elected in the fourth ballot, new general parliamentary elections must be held immediately. -------------- Presidential Election Calendar -------------- ¶5. (U) President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, who assumed office on May 16, 2000, will complete his term on May 16, 2007. The legal election process for the 11th President of the Republic will start one month before that date (April 16) and must be completed by midnight, May 15, 2007. Sezer will remain in office until the president-elect takes over. ¶6. (U) Starting April 16, deputies have 10 days to submit their candidacies to the Speaker's office. For presidential candidates from outside parliament, deputies must submit to the Speaker's office in that same timeframe a petition signed by at least 110 deputies. The election will take place in parliament in the remaining 20 days. As described above, there can be up to four rounds of balloting, followed by new general elections for parliament if a president cannot be elected by the fourth ballot. This will be the fourth presidential election based on the provisions of the 1982 Constitution. Turgut Ozal (1989-1993),Suleyman Demirel (1993-2000),and Sezer were elected with these rules. All were elected in the third round. ¶7. (U) The Speaker's office will formally announce the election calendar when the process begins on April 16. Based ANKARA 00006427 002 OF 003 on the constitutional requirements, we expect the calendar to be as follows: -- April 16-25, 2007 : Application of candidates to the Speaker's office -- April 29, 2007 : First round of voting (367 votes needed) -- May 3, 2007 : Second round (367 votes needed) -- May 7, 2007 : Third round (276 votes needed) -- May 11, 2007 : Fourth round (276 votes needed; a run-off between the top two candidates of the third round) -------------- Parliamentary Election Outline -------------- ¶8. (U) Parliament has set November 4, 2007, as the date of the next election, with the opening of the election period to begin on July 20, 2007. The Supreme Election Board (SEB) still needs to draw up the exact calendar and the parliament will vote on it before it becomes official. Thetimeframe under discussion is two weeks longer than the usual three-month election period, probably due to the post-Ramadan holiday in mid-October. The SEB also is considering making some changes of its own, including moving up the deadline for civil servants to resign from their positions in order to be eligible to run in the elections. ¶9. (U) While major parties are already organizing their conventions and shifting into campaign mode, the "official" election period is still eight months away, and will not start until two months after the new president is elected. The 2002 election calendar provides a detailed working guide for what sort of timeline to expect in 2007: -- August 7, 2002 Election period begins, as prescribed by parliament. -- August 8, 2002 Deadline for public servants to resign in order to run in elections. -- August 9, 2002 Deadline for political parties to inform the SEB about the method they will use for determining candidates in each constituency. -- August 9, 2002 Voter registration lists on display (until August 27) for review by sub-provincial election boards. -- August 27, 2002 Places of political parties on the ballot paper determined by drawing lots at the SEB. -- August 29, 2002 Changes in voter registration lists finalized. -- September 1, 2002 Interested parties hold primaries. -- September 8, 2002 Lists of candidates determined by primaries submitted to the SEB by the provincial election boards. -- September 10, 2002 SEB approves lists of candidates determined by primaries. -- September 11, 2002 Deadline for political party headquarters to submit to SEB their candidate lists for each district. -- September 11, 2002 Deadline for independent candidates to apply to provincial election boards. -- September 14, 2002 Deadline for political parties to finalize their candidate lists. -- September 16, 2002 "Temporary List" of candidates running in general elections announced in the media and ANKARA 00006427 003 OF 003 in the Official Gazette. -- September 17, 2002 Deadline to apply to relevant provincial election boards for final objections to the "temporary" candidate lists. -- September 21, 2002 Deadline for reporting to the SEB names of those who resign/withdraw their candidacy from "temporary" lists. -- September 26, 2002 After evaluating the "temporary" lists, the SEB announces in the media and in the Official Gazette a "Final List" of candidates running in general elections. -- October 2, 2002 Turkish citizens living abroad begin casting their votes at border gates and airports. -- October 27, 2002 (Official) propaganda period and election bans/restrictions begin; political parties will begin to use their slots on state radio and television. -- November 2, 2002 Election propaganda ends at 18:00 hours; restrictions continue from 18:00 on November 2 until midnight on election day. -- November 3, 2002 Election Day Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ MCELDOWNEY