TURKEY: FRAGILE CALM REMAINS IN SE AFTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 005640 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM OSCE TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: FRAGILE CALM REMAINS IN SE AFTER DIYARBAKIR BLAST; KURDS FEAR RALSTON COULD BE MANIPULATED AGAINST THEIR INTERESTS REF: A. ANKARA 5269 ¶B. ADANA 60 Classified By: Classified by Kelly Degnan, Acting Political Counselor; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) This is a Consulate Adana cable. ¶2. (C) Summary. A fragile calm pervades in the wake of the September 12 bomb explosion in Diyarbakir (ref A); the people are waiting for the government to bring the real perpetrators to justice quickly and fairly. If that fails to happen, the calm could dissipate quickly into the kind of chaos seen in the region in March (ref B),or worse. Many in the region equate the bombing with the November 2005 bombing in Semdinli, where &dark government forces8 allegedly perpetrated an explosion to justify continued suppression of the PKK and the Kurdish cause. The appointment of a US representative to combat PKK activities in Iraq is widely supported throughout Turkey's southeast, although Kurds remain fearful that the representative could be manipulated by the GOT and GOI into supporting anti-Kurd policies. End summary. ¶3. (C) In a recent trip to Van, Hakkari, Semdinli and Yuksekova, our interlocutors told us that the mood in the region remained calm in the wake of the September 12 explosion in Diyarbakir. The governors and sub-governors we spoke with painted a rosy picture of continuing calm and growing support of GOT policies in the region. In contrast, our Kurdish interlocutors stressed that although the mood was currently quiet, people in the region were still fearful and distrusted the GOT more than ever, blaming the recent Diyarbakir bombing on "dark forces" within the state. Seymus Diken, Advisor to Diyarbakir,s Democratic Society Party (DTP) mayor, told us that people in the region were still waiting for the government to bring the perpetrators of the bombing to justice. Diken emphasized that the calm could quickly dissipate into an explosion of anger were the GOT to handle the investigation and follow-up to the bombing poorly. ¶4. (C) Diken, and Yuksekova CHP Deputy Esat Canan, both told us that people in the region equate the Diyarbakir bombing with the November 2005 Semdinli bombing. According to Diken and Canan, both incidents were likely perpetrated by "deep state" actors as pretexts to continue the GOT,s clampdown on the PKK and deny Kurds their cultural rights. Diken, Canan and other Kurdish interlocutors believed that the timing of the Diyarbakir bombing in the immediate wake of the announcement of retired General Ralston as the special U.S. representative on the PKK issue was no coincidence. They emphasized that the bombing was a message sent by "deep state" actors to justify increased government suppression of PKK activities. U.S. Representative on PKK Welcomed, but Skepticism Remains -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) While all of our GOT and Kurdish interlocutors welcomed the recent announcement of General Joseph Ralston as Special Envoy for countering the PKK, the Kurdish interlocutors all expressed skepticism about the intentions of the GOT and the Government of Iraq (GOI) towards the Kurdish people throughout the region. They fear that both governments might manipulate the U.S. into actions and policies in the region that would run counter to Kurdish interests. Yuksekova,s DTP Mayor Salih Yildiz expressed fears that the GOT, the GOI and even the government of Iran would enter into secret agreements against the Kurds that would nullify the U.S.'s positive relations with the Kurds in Northern Iraq. ¶6. (C) Semdinli Mayor Rifat Geylan, Hakkari Deputy Canan and Yuksekova Mayor Yildiz all reacted to Baghdad's announcement of a crackdown on PKK activities in northern Iraq by calling for greater US influence over Baghdad to ensure that Kurdish rights in the region are protected. All of our Kurdish interlocutors saw the need for a greater U.S. role as ANKARA 00005640 002 OF 002 objective referee in the region to secure rights and peace for the Kurds. Yildiz believed that Ralston would soon learn how determined the Kurds are in their cause, and would also learn how anti-U.S. and anti-E.U. the GOT really is. Many of our Kurdish interlocutors repeatedly emphasized the necessity of bringing the Kurds into the Ralston process. As Yildiz put it, "The Kurds are like the bride at an arranged wedding, where the groom, the parents and all the relatives are making important decisions about the bride's life without so much as consulting her or bringing her into the discussion." Semdinli's DTP Mayor Hursi Tekin told us that without Kurdish involvement in the Ralston process there could be no democratic solution to the Kurdish problem. ¶7. (C) Comment. The Kurds see some hope in the Ralston appointment, but believe that no progress is possible toward solving the PKK problem or the Kurdish problem unless the Kurds are brought into the solution process. Distrust of the government is higher than ever among people in the southeast. They remain doubtful, though expectant, that the GOT will bring the real perpetrators of the Diyarbakir bombing to justice, and that their demands for greater cultural rights will be recognized. Kurdish intellectuals and opinion leaders in the southeast continue to call for increased involvement by the U.S. as an arbitrator between them and the GOT and GOI to ensure that their regional interests and cultural rights are secured. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON