TURKEY/ARMENIA UPDATE: TURKS RESPOND ON JOINT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 005471 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2021 TAGS: PREL PGOV TU AM SUBJECT: TURKEY/ARMENIA UPDATE: TURKS RESPOND ON JOINT COMMISSIONS REF: A. ANKARA 2446 ¶B. ANKARA 2410 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner - Reasons 1.4 (b) a nd (d) ¶1. (C) Turkish MFA Deputy Director General for Central Asia and the Caucasus Huseyin Avni Karslioglu told us September 14 that Turkey recently sent a counter-proposal to Armenia's April 19 non-paper on joint commissions (ref B). According to Karslioglu, the Turkish response attempts to lay out in more detail how it believes the commissions should be constituted. He described the exchange between the two sides as "beating around the bush," with each iteration containing a slight modification to keep the dialogue going. He said the Turkish response attempted to "give some teeth" to how the joint commissions might be created, characterizing the Armenian proposal as "too vague." The counter-proposal was conveyed in a "very friendly tone" and he emphasized that Turkey wants to continue talks on the historical commission. ¶2. (C) The next step might be another non-paper response from Armenia, but Karslioglu indicated he would prefer a face-to-face meeting in the coming month or two. He noted that because he and Turkish MFA Deputy Under Secretary for Bilateral Political Affairs for the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and the Pacific Ahmet Uzumcu will be transferring posts by the end of the year, they would like to use a meeting to introduce their successors and familiarize them with the ongoing dialogue. ¶3. (C) Karslioglu stated that, in his personal opinion, no "bold steps" would be taken vis--vis Armenia until after Turkish parliamentary elections that must be held by November ¶2007. He characterized the current effort as laying the groundwork -- getting to a "manageable and politically swallowable" point for a possible move by the next government. He noted Armenian elections are also not too far away and may affect Yerevan's ability to take any politically risky moves. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: We have pressed MFA regularly over the past five months to accept the Armenians' positive, albeit hesitant, reply to Turkey's previous proposal...in short, asking them to take "yes" for an answer. Karslioglu, however, is probably right. As Turkey moves into this election cycle, the GOT will seek to prolong these negotiations as long as possible. They don't want to shut the process down. However, they also do not wish to find themselves obliged to take any steps they percive as politically risky on the domestic front. They have kept this quiet and intend to continue to do so until they believe the time is ripe. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON