SEPTEMBER 5 PARLIAMENTARY VOTE ON TURKISH UNIFIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 005020 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2021 TAGS: PREL GPGOV USUN LE TU SUBJECT: SEPTEMBER 5 PARLIAMENTARY VOTE ON TURKISH UNIFIL TROOP DEPLOYMENT REF: ANKARA 4978 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4(b), (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. The Turkish government will ask the speaker of parliament to convene a special session on September 5 to vote on deploying troops to Lebanon. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) parliamentary group will meet late September 4 with PM Erdogan to persuade waverers and prepare for the vote. PM Erdogan, FM Gul and other government and party leaders took the decision at an August 29 meeting, following the government's August 28 decision to contribute troops to UNIFIL (reftel). The AKP leaders continue carefully to lay the groundwork to ensure a successful outcome. Erdogan is expected to appeal for public support in his August 31 address to the nation. The vote will be open, not secret, forcing any AKP naysayers to confront the PM directly. A successful vote will bolster Erdogan's image as statesman and regional leader as he prepares to meet with UNSYG Annan on September 6 and President Bush on October 2. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The government will submit its motion to the Speaker of Parliament by September 1, seeking a parliamentary vote to deploy troops abroad. A petition calling for a special session and signed by the required number of AKP MPs will also be submitted. Anticipating that a special session might be needed on a different issue (the ninth EU accession reform package),AKP had collected the requisite signatures from MPs before the June recess. With this requirement met, and Speaker Arinc's support for the government's decision, the GOT plans to convene a special session on September 5, AKP whip Salih Kapusuz told us August 30. ¶3. (C) With a quorum of at least 184 MPs (of a total of 550), the GOT will need a minimum of 138 votes to pass the motion, according to Turkey's constitution. The government plans to convene the session at 3 p.m. on September 5; SYG Annan arrives in Ankara later that evening. FM Gul and opposition party leaders will speak to assembled MPs prior to a vote, which Kapusuz stated categorically will be open; there will be no secret ballot. The decision will enter into effect once it is published in the Official Gazette. President Sezer, who opposes a troop contribution to UNIFIL, is charged under the constitution with implementing a parliamentary decision to deploy troops abroad; he has no constitutional authority to veto such a decision, although he has argued that the president retains the right to take the matter to the Constitutional Court. ¶4. (C) PM Erdogan, who has been actively pushing for a troop contribution for weeks, is determined to get the parliamentary support he needs. The AKP's Central Executive Board and parliamentary group are shoring up party support and neutralizing opposition through personal outreach and media statements. Most AKP deputies are likely to toe the party line, if only to preserve their positioning as candidates in next year's general elections. They will come face to face with the PM at a party group meeting the evening of September 4. At that session, Kapusuz explained, Erdogan would lay out the reasons for the vote, with an emphasis on Turkey's role as a regional power whose leaders sought a ceasefire from the beginning. Kapusuz stressed that countering public misperceptions, fed by the gruesome pictures that appeared during the recent conflict, was key to the AKP strategy. A handful of AKP deputies, responding to constituent pressure, have voiced opposition, with a few others taking a wary but undecided stance. AKP members who are not on board with the deployment decision are reportedly being told not to attend the parliamentry session. ¶5. (C) The GOT has yet to specifythe details of its proposed deployment, although it is expected to be for an initial one year period and involve under 1000 troops. Erdogan, FM Gul and other AKP leaders have stressed in public statements that Turkish troops are deploying on a peacekeeping mission and not to disarm Hizbullah, a message Kapusuz again drove home to us, and which Erdogan is likely to reiterate in his August 31 speech to the nation. ANKARA 00005020 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Comment. Erdogan's personal commitment to a successful vote and the speed with which the GOT has pressed forward with its motion, combined with the AKP's majority of 355 seats, make it likely parliament will approve the government's motion to deploy troops to Lebanon. The GOT also has an unwitting ally in President Sezer, whose opposition to the motion has almost guaranteed that most AKP MPs will vote for it. Erdogan is willing to risk public opposition for the sake of Turkey's (and his own) prestige as a regional leader. Each step he and FM Gul have taken since the onset of the Israel-Lebanon conflict -- including early and repeated calls for a ceasefire, apparently genuine anger at what AKP leaders termed Israeli use of disproportionate force, and calls for U.S. leadership -- appear to have built to this moment. AKP is taking no chances, though; the PM will not risk MPs defecting in a secret ballot -- they will have to face him down. The GOT is also braced for sharp attacks from the opposition, including calls for Turkey to deal with its own problems at home -- the PKK -- before sending any troops abroad. End comment. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON