TURKISH MFA READOUT ON FM GUL VISIT TO TEHRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 003733 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2021 TAGS: PREL KNUC IR TU SUBJECT: TURKISH MFA READOUT ON FM GUL VISIT TO TEHRAN Classified By: DCM Nancy McEldowney for Reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: MFA U/S Akgunay gave us a detailed readout on Foreign Minister Gul's June 25 visit to Tehran. After five extended meetings, the Turks concluded that debate on the way forward is continuing. Akgunay said National Security Council Secretary General Ali Larijani indicated he will come to the talks with EU Political Directors and Solana on June 28 with a signal that a positive response to the P5-1 package would be forthcoming. However, GOI concerns about "what happens after" suspension of nuclear enrichment indicate Larijani may also come with additional demands. End Summary. -------------- Schedule -------------- ¶2. (C) Akgunay said they left for Tehran on Saturday night and held meetings on Sunday, June 25 from 10:30 to 19:00. Gul met first with FM Mottaki, who hosted a working luncheon. He then met with Speaker of Parliament Adel, NSC Secretary General Larijani, President Ahmadinejad, former President Rafsanjani and then Larijani again at the end of the day for more than one hour. They did not meet with Supreme Leader Khamanei. Akgunay characterized the meetings as "intense." -------------- The Message -------------- ¶3. (C) Akgunay described Gul's message as substantial and strong in character. Gul emphasized that time was running out; the P5-1 needed a response as soon as possible. The package is not an offer of one country; it is the consensus proposal of the strongly united P5-1. Gul stressed that the language in the package uses the term "we," not P5-1 or EU-3. The package was prepared in good faith and after long negotiations. It has balance. Iran should not assume it can divide the P5-1 - they must respond to the six parties as a whole. If Iran responds quickly and positively, Iranians, the region and the whole world will benefit. ¶4. (C) Akgunay said Larijani asked if the Turkish government knew the contents of the package. Gul said he did not. But he does understand that the package contains important scientific and technical gains for Iran. He also stressed the historical importance of this proposal. It would be the first time in 27 years the U.S. will talk to Iran directly. It could be the end of Iran's isolation in the global sense. The results of a yes response will positively affect the entire Iranian society. ¶5. (C) Gul encouraged the GOI to see suspension of nuclear enrichment as part of a mutual suspension by both sides and not a pre-condition - if Iran stops enrichment, the P5-1 will stop seeking UN Security Council action. Mutual suspension is a good deal. ¶6. (C) On timing, Gul said the P5-1 showed good will by not including a deadline but he cautioned the Iranians not to misread its exclusion. The P5-1 expects a response before the G-8 summit. Iran will lose support of countries advocating a diplomatic solution if Iran's answer is not positive. -------------- FM Mottaki -------------- ¶7. (C) FM Mottaki told Gul Iran will answer and probably positively. Iran would like to respond positively and use the positive atmosphere. However, Mottaki said in the past when Iran has stopped energy activities for three years, nothing happened. ANKARA 00003733 002 OF 002 -------------- Ahmadinejad and Rafsanjani Downbeat -------------- ¶8. (C) Former President and State Reconciliation Council head Rafsanjani was quite negative to Gul. Rafsanjani said the P5-1 package contained nothing new. Gul's take on Rafsanjani's attitude was that he is out of power and there is no benefit to him personally to support the package. Ahmadinejad was also quite negative in tone, noting his belief that the Americans could not be trusted. -------------- Larijani Meeting More Positive -------------- ¶9. (C) Akgunay characterized the final one-hour one-on-one meeting with Larijani as more positive. FM Gul was more frank than normal for a diplomatic discussion. Larijani said he will go to the EU meeting on June 28 with a clear indication that Iran would accept the package, but Iran is not willing to give a full yes at this point. Larijani is aware that the package has new elements, that a lot of work went into the package, and that Secretary Rice worked personally on it. ¶10. (C) Gul encouraged Iran to start negotiations immediately and to clarify the issues in that context. Larijani said Iran has an important question - if Iran stops enrichment, what will happen the next day? What happens if the P5-1 do not keep their end of the deal? Larijani said Iran wants to see a guarantee mechanism or to know exactly how negotiations will work before Iran gives a full yes to the package. If Iran suspends nuclear enrichment activities, it would lose data and know-how. Therefore, Iran wants some sort of assurance that the negotiations will not go on forever without result. ¶11. (C) Larijani told Gul he will go to the Solana meeting with a positive signal and with full powers to make decisions. The June 28 meeting involves the EU political directors, however, who cannot make decisions on their own. The United States will not be there. Larijani said the other side must meet with him with full powers to decide. ¶12. (C) Larijani also told Gul the Iranians lacked confidence in the United States and its promise of direct talks. The last time the U.S. asked for direct talks regarding Iraq, Iran agreed, suffered strong public negative reaction and then the U.S. changed its mind. ¶13. (C) Akgunay said it is definitely the Turkish government's impression that everyone but former President Rafsanjani is seeking a way out. However, they must be very careful in their approach; they cannot upset the Iranian establishment. ¶14. (C) Asked to characterize the results of the visit, Akgunay said there is an intense debate underway between the various power centers in Tehran. However, the Turks came away from Gul's visit with a feeling Iran is looking for a way out. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON