TURKISH YOUTH: DEMOGRAPHICS AND IDENTITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 003651 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ECON SCUL SOCI TU SUBJECT: TURKISH YOUTH: DEMOGRAPHICS AND IDENTITY ANKARA 00003651 001.2 OF 002 THIS IS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF THREE CABLES ABOUT TURKISH YOUTH COMPILED BY FIRST- AND SECOND-TOUR OFFICERS THROUGHOUT MISSION TURKEY. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Nearly three-quarters of Turkey's population is under the age of 35. To better understand this increasingly important cohort, Mission Turkey's first- and second-tour officers conducted several months of outreach, meeting with young people throughout the country and discussing their attitudes on a wealth of topics. This cable introduces the series with a demographic overview of the group. Among the most striking findings in the data were the high rates of youth unemployment and extremely low rates of high school and university enrollment in the east and southeastern provinces. The two subsequent cables will detail what we learned about youth attitudes toward politics, religion, economics, the United States, and Turkey's role in the world. End summary. -------------- POPULATION OVERVIEW -------------- ¶2. (SBU) According to Turkish Policy Quarterly, nearly 75 percent of Turkey's population is under the age of 35. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) reports that 47 percent of the population is under the age of 24, and the U.S. Library of Congress puts the under-14 segment of the population at 26 percent. Like the country's population overall, the youth population is concentrated in Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, as well as in Turkey's many smaller cities. In most of the country, birth rates have come down over the past 20 years. In the east and southeast, however, anecdotal evidence suggests that families continue to have high birth rates, with up to ten children. In the southeastern provinces of Sanliurfa and Diyarbakir, for example, the percentage of the population under age 35 is closer to 80 percent. Their absorption into the economy poses a major economic, social, and political challenge. -------------- EDUCATION -------------- ¶3. (U) The Turkish State Institute of Statistics (TUIK) reports that 60.9 percent of young people attend high school. According to TUIK statistics, of the students who took the highly competitive university entrance exam in 2002, 28.6 percent passed. Overall, 19 percent of Turkish youth attend a four-year university, and an additional nine percent take part in distance learning. In the eastern and southeastern provinces, these numbers are dramatically lower, with only three percent of young people attending a four-year university and five percent taking part in distance learning. Because of economic conditions, many families in the eastern and southeastern provinces do not have the resources to send their children to secondary school or to specialized schools (dershanes) that prepare them for the university entrance exam. -------------- UNEMPLOYMENT -------------- ¶4. (SBU) A 2006 World Bank Labor Market Study reported that unemployment is extremely high among educated young people in Turkey. For university graduates age 20-24, the unemployment rate is 39 percent. For 25-to-29-year-olds with a university degree, the rate is 15 percent. Overall, the unemployment rate for males aged 15-34 is 21.6 percent, and 22.6 percent for females. Turkish youth told us that underemployment is also a huge problem for them. TUIK reports that underemployment for youth age 15-24 is four percent, on top of the reported unemployment rate. Widespread anecdotal evidence suggests that this far underestimates the extent of the problem. Many young people are identified as "employed," when in fact they work for very low wages, or no wages at all, in family businesses. -------------- VALUES AND IDENTITY -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Faruk Demir, president of Ankara-based think tank Gelecek which reports on trends in youth identity and values, told us that three values are of increasing importance to the young population: social nationalism, nationalist Islam, and ANKARA 00003651 002.2 OF 002 Islamism. He explained that social nationalism represents anger or resentment toward other nations and emphasizes Turkey's power in the region. Nationalist Islam, Demir said, is an emphasis on a combination of national values and Muslim values, and is caused by what some see as an unhealthy relationship between the state and the individual. He told us that those who value Islamism put Islamic values ahead of traditional "Turkish values" and emphasize Turkey's connections with the Middle East over western connections. Demir also told us that Kurdish nationalism is on the rise among the young Kurdish population in Turkey's southeastern provinces. ¶6. (SBU) The English Language Fellows (ELFs) posted in Trabzon and Eskisehir told us that their students identified themselves as Turks first, and Muslims second. (Note: ELFs are USG-funded English instructors who teach English in a variety of cities throughout Turkey.) When asked what being "Turkish" meant, leaders of the Istanbul-based youth group Yeni Nesil (New Generation) told us that it was a "packet of values," including loyalty, hospitality, caring about others, and tolerance. ¶7. (SBU) In June 2006, Erzurum Ataturk University's Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences conducted a survey of university students country-wide on a variety of topics, including identity. When asked about nationalist sentiment, nearly half of all students surveyed identified themselves as either "very close" or "close" to this feeling. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Turkey's population is heavily weighted toward young people, but the GOT's successful macroeconomic policies have yet to translate into sufficient job creation to absorb the waves of young people entering the work force. The sheer numbers of young people entering the work force poses an enormous challenge to policy makers. With nationalism and Islamism increasing among the youth, the GOT needs to focus as well on reforming its educational system to provide higher-level schooling to a larger percentage of the population. If left unaddressed, the vast lack of educational opportunities for students, particularly in the east and southeast, is a political, economic, and social time bomb that will add to the existing alienation and hopelessness in that region. 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