CENTRAL ASIA CONSULTATIONS IN ANKARA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 003371 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR SCA A/S BOUCHER AND AMBASSADORS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL ENRG TU ZK SUBJECT: CENTRAL ASIA CONSULTATIONS IN ANKARA Classified By: Classified by DCM Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Embassy Ankara warmly welcomes the visit of Assistant Secretary Richard Boucher and SCA Ambassadors to Ankara for meetings with Foreign Minister Gul, Energy Minister Guler, and Senior MFA officials following the USTDA Regional Energy Conference in Istanbul. In addition to helping build regional support for our policy agenda in the region, your visit will be part of our new "strategic dialogue" with Turkey that builds on the Secretary,s April visit to Ankara. Turkey values its growing commercial and political relations with its Turkic brethren states in Central Asia. This summer, Turkey will share COMMAND of ISAF-Central with France and Italy and open its first Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Afghanistan. END SUMMARY. -------------- STRATEGIC DIALOGUE -------------- ¶2. (SBU) During her April 25 visit to Ankara, Secretary Rice and Foreign Minister Gul agreed to formalize a regular series of meetings to further our bilateral efforts on issues such as Iraq, Iran, the Caucasus and Central Asia, among others. As a majority Muslim country that straddles Europe and the Middle East, Turkey shares a history and culture with many countries of U.S. concern and is poised to increase its constructive role in Iraq and Afghanistan and in the Broader Middle East and North Africa (BMENA) initiative. -------------- Central Asia -------------- ¶3. (SBU) With the break-up of the Soviet Union, Turkey embraced the goal of building ties with its Turkic brethren in Central Asia. Turkey prides itself on being first to recognize and send high-level delegations to the newly independent Central Asian states. Its dreams of leveraging Turkic affinity for some sort of commonwealth and predominant influence in the economic and political realms in these states have been scaled back in light of the realities in the region, but Turkey has persisted in efforts to develop its relations. Turkey has organized regular Turkic summits, but they have yielded few firm results. Turkey,s main concerns ) and areas of cooperation ) in the region are drugs, terrorism, and radical Islam. Turkey follows the EU lead on human rights issues and advocates gradual transition to democracy by emphasizing economic development. ¶4. (SBU) After the demise of the Soviet Union, Turkey was the first in providing substantial economic and development assistance to the region. Turkey-Central Asia trade, credits, assistance, and investment have all grown steadily. According to the GOT, more than 1000 Turkish firms operate in the region in the energy, telecom, textile, food, and tourist sectors, with investments of over $3.5 billion. No one Central Asian country makes Turkey,s trading partner top twenty list, but the Turkic Republics (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan) collectively constitute a growing $2.7 billion two-way trade and Turkish trade with the region far exceeds intra-region Central Asian trade. Turkish firms are active in the hydropower sector in Central Asia. Turkish investment and trade have developed most quickly with the western, energy rich Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The Turkish International Cooperation Agency (TIKA) was set up in order to provide technical assistance to Central Asian Republics. Turkey has set up state-sponsored Turkish schools and scholarships, but more numerous are the schools organized in the region by religious leader Fethullah Gulen, who currently lives in the United States. ¶5. (C) The Turkish military has told us that they are concerned about drug flows and Chinese and Russian influence in the region. Turkey also worries that radical Islam is a growing negative influence in Central Asia. It is partly for this reason that Turkey has continued to encourage Central Asian governments to maintain strong relations with the west and with NATO institutions. These efforts have met with only ANKARA 00003371 002 OF 003 mixed success. Turkey is frustrated with developments in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan; one MFA interlocutor characterized the former as "hopeless8 and the latter &can go either way." ¶6. (SBU) The main working session of your consultations with Turkey on Central Asia will be hosted by Ahmet Uzumcu, Deputy Undersecretary for Bilateral Political Affairs (equivalent of a State U/S),with responsibility for South and Central Asia. The MFA proposes that the agenda for the session and working lunch include: -Recent political developments, assessments of regional issues, and specific discussions on Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; -South and Central Asia economic integration; -Other energy cooperation and building linkages; and -Security cooperation. The Turkish MFA has proposed that DAS Gastright attend a separate session focused on Afghanistan, but that can also be a topic of the general session. You will also meet with the Minister of Foreign Affairs (also Deputy Prime Minister) Abdullah Gul and the Minister of Energy Hilmi Guler (not yet confirmed). -------------- Kazakhstan -------------- ¶7. (SBU) With respect to Kazakhstan, the GOT notes that common historical and cultural ties have facilitated the rapid development of bilateral relations and cooperation. Turkey is the third largest investor in Kazakhstan, after Russia and the U.S. The Turkish state oil company TPAO has significant investments in Kazakhstan. Turkey and other Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline partners have actively sought to establish a link with Kazakhstan,s significant oil production. Kazakhstan is a potential source for Trans-Caspian-Pipeline gas transit. Kazakhstan is Turkey,s strongest trade partner in the region, with over $1 billion in two-way trade. Turkey exports machinery, plastics, and boilers to Kazakhstan; it imports copper, copper products, and mineral fuel. Sixty percent of new construction in Astana is being done by Turkish firms. -------------- Turkmenistan -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Turkmenistan is another energy rich country that has attracted Turkish investment, but in lesser amounts than Kazakhstan. Turkey has called for revitalizing the Trans-Caspian-Pipeline (TCP) for gas from Turkmenistan. The earlier TCP project failed in 2001, although Turkey and Turkmenistan still signed a fruitless take-or-pay gas import contract. Turkish Calik Holding has been an active investor in the textile, energy, and construction sectors in Turkmenistan. About 10 percent of Turkmenistan,s GDP is generated by Turkish firms. Turkey exports machinery, iron, and steel to Turkmenistan and imports cotton and mineral fuels. Turkey imports a modest amount of electricity from Turkmenistan via Iran. -------------- Other Central Asia Republics -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Turkey,s relations with Tajikistan have developed more slowly because of internal conflict, less proximity, fewer energy resources, and a largely Farsi speaking population. Its trade relations are proportionally less important than most of the other Central Asian republics. Turkey exports carpets and soap to Tajikistan; it imports aluminum and associated products. Turkey is interested in hydropower projects in Tajikistan. ¶10. (SBU) Turkey is Uzbekistan,s primary trade partner, but Turkey,s trade with Uzbekistan is also of modest proportions, relative to Uzbekistan,s size. Turkey perceives that preventing and eliminating threats like ANKARA 00003371 003 OF 003 extremism, terrorism, and drug smuggling that Uzbekistan faces are main topics in bilateral discussions. -------------- Afghanistan: -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Turkey has twice successfully led the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, most recently from February to August 2005. Later in 2006, it will commence joint COMMAND of ISAF-Central in Kabul for a two-year period and will open its first PRT in the neighboring province of Wardak. PM Erdogan visited Afghanistan in spring 2005 and subsequently increased Turkey's pledged assistance ten-fold to $100 million. This will be allocated in $16 million increments for five years to build schools, hospitals, medical clinics and drinking water wells throughout the country. Four hospitals have already been constructed. The GOT provides counter-narcotics training in Turkey to Afghan security forces and will initiate such training in Afghanistan this year under the auspices of the Wardak PRT. Additionally, Turkey staffs teaching positions in and provides material assistance for the Afghan military academy. President Karzai demonstrated his gratitude for Turkey's assistance by participating in a March counter-terrorism conference at Turkey's NATO Center of Excellence for the Defense Against Terrorism. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON