OPPOSITION PARTIES UPDATE: LOTS OF TALK, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 003227 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2025 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS TU SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PARTIES UPDATE: LOTS OF TALK, BUT LITTLE VISION REF: A. ANKARA 002901 ¶B. 2005 ANKARA 006878 Classified By: Janice G. Weiner, E.O. 12958, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. In the aftermath of the May 17 shooting at the High Administrative Court in Ankara (ref a),there has been increasing talk about forming electoral alliances among smaller opposition parties on the center right and the center left. At this point, it is largely chatter. Forming electoral alliances is tricky under Turkish law, party leaders, egos are huge, and the larger opposition parties have little incentive to cooperate with their smaller rivals. End summary. ¶2. (C) The Turkish parliament,s current term does not expire until November 2007. Secular opposition parties and their allies in the secular state establishment are already jockeying to force early elections to stop the current parliament, dominated by the ruling pro-Islam Justice and Development Party (AKP),from selecting the next President in May 2007 (ref b). The AKP, which calls itself a conservative democratic party, remains the juggernaut of Turkish electoral politics. Most polls conducted over the past year -- including one published May 30 in Vatan newspaper -- indicate that AKP would win 30-35 percent of the vote and the center-left Republican People,s Party (CHP) would win 15-20 percent of the vote, were elections held today. These same polls also show the center-right True Path Party (DYP) and the ultra-nationalistic Nationalist Action Party (MHP) hovering around the 10 percent electoral threshold. The other three dozen Turkish political parties are stuck in the basement, in the low to mid single digits, with no hope of winning any parliamentary seats on their own. -------------- -- Calls for Unity on Center-Left and Center-Right -------------- -- ¶3. (C) Bulent Ecevit, a former Prime Minister and former chairman of the Democratic Left Party (DSP) (currently in a stroke-induced coma),recently called for unification of the left-of-center secular parties. Ecevit suggested that DSP, CHP, the Social Democratic People,s Party (SHP) and other parties on the left forge an electoral alliance with Yilmaz Buyukersen, the well-respected DSP mayor of Eskisehir, as the coalition,s announced PM candidate. SHP Chairman Murat Karayalcin responded favorably, calling for the Turkish left to follow the example of the Italian left and unite under a single banner. Karayalcin said the Turkish social democratic movement should unite around the principles of Ataturk and the Socialist International. ¶4. (C) Former President, PM and True Path Party (DYP) leader Suleyman Demirel made a similar call for unification on the center-right. At a meeting Demirel convened May 30 near Ankara with 180 representatives of center-right parties, the group agreed that the center right should unite under Demirel,s leadership. The next day, several center right politicians expressed support for Demirel,s efforts. -------------- CHP and DYP Not Interested in Alliances -------------- ¶5. (C) For their part, CHP leader Baykal and DYP leader Agar would love to absorb the smaller opposition parties. Each would happily accept a merger with smaller parties under their own leadership. Baykal and Agar, however, have huge egos and little incentive to cooperate with the smaller parties in an informal electoral alliance. CHP leader Baykal, accordingly, called on the smaller left-of-center parties to unite by disbanding and joining CHP. DYP leader Agar is reported to have rejected Demirel,s plan. ¶6. (C) CHP and DYP members with whom we have talked believe their parties will cross the 10 percent threshold in the next election. They see a potential merger with a smaller party as unlikely to change CHP or DYP,s share of the vote by more than a few percentage points. Accordingly, a merger would win neither CHP nor DYP many new seats in parliament, but would require CHP and DYP to give some seats to alliance members -- not a prospect their leaders relish. ANKARA 00003227 002 OF 002 -------------- Electoral Alliances Not Part of Turkish Law -------------- ¶7. (U) Under Turkish law, there is no provision for forming a formal electoral alliance. Parties interested in establishing such an alliance must do so unofficially by having their candidates run under one party,s banner and on one party,s official electoral candidate list. In essence, the parties merge under the umbrella of one party for the purpose of the election, with the understanding that the candidates from other parties will return to their original parties after the election. If parties in such an electoral alliance win enough votes to secure a state financial subsidy, the subsidy is given to only one party. According to law, that party may not share it with other parties. ¶8. (C) Comment. Political chatter about electoral alliances and mergers will continue as just that -- as chatter and wishful thinking -- since it will prove difficult to translate these strategies into practice. Within Turkish political parties, party leaders wield tremendous power: many egotistical Turkish party leaders would far rather dictatorially govern their own small parties than work with other parties, leaders to advance a common ideological or political agenda. While smaller parties, like DSP and SHP, may be able to form a temporary electoral alliance, these alliances are unlikely to cross the 10 percent electoral threshold. As for Baykal, he is likely to resist a CHP-DSP-SHP alliance, as Agar is likely to oppose a DYP-Motherland Party (ANAP) alliance, despite the fact that these mergers would advance the interests of the center-left and center-right, respectively, in Turkish politics. As a result, absent an unexpected collapse of AKP, that party will continue for now as the 800 pound gorilla of Turkish politics. End Comment. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON