MAKHMOUR: GOT GENERALLY PLEASED WITH UNHCR

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 003103 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2026 TAGS: PTER MOPS PREF PREL TU IZ UN SUBJECT: MAKHMOUR: GOT GENERALLY PLEASED WITH UNHCR OPERATIONS PLAN, BUT HAS SOME CONCERNS REF: ANKARA 2793 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Counselor for Political-Military Affairs Timothy A. Bett s for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) We met May 26 with MFA Director General for Security Affairs (S/CT-equivalent) Hayati Guven to get Guven's readout of a May 24 GOT interagency meeting he chaired to discuss UNHCR's operations plan for effecting durable solutions for the residents of the Makhmour refugee camp in northern Iraq (see ref). Guven said the GOT is generally positive about the plan, which he described as "businesslike" and indicative of UNHCR's "good intentions." Guven confirmed his plans to travel to Geneva for June 2 U.S.-Turkey-UNHCR talks on the plan. ¶2. (C) However, Guven said the GOT had questions as to whether the plan can be successfully implemented, primarily because it relies "on the political determination of the Iraqis." In Guven's view, Iraqi governments in their various iterations since 2003 -- and the Kurdish authorities as well -- have had a poor record in cooperating with Turkey on the PKK issue. He also questioned the ISF's capacity to carry out its mission of excluding PKK terrorist elements from the camp so UNHCR can proceed with registering the residents and determining their wishes. Guven emphasized that Turkey will seek strong support form the U.S. to ensure the GOI's political determination to deal with the issue, and expressed a preference for some MNF-I involvement in the ISF mission. Guven added that the GOT will want to be involved in the assessment process between Phases Two and Three of the UN plan so Turkey will be assured that this has in fact been achieved. ¶3. (C) Guven also said that Turkey does not agree with UNHCR's assessment that there are about 200-300 terrorists in the camp at a given time. Turkish intelligence estimates the number is at least 400. Turkish intelligence also disagrees with the UNHCR assessment that the PKK moves out of the camp between April and October, and therefore believes more ISF will be needed than envisioned in the plan. In addition, many in the Turkish interagency were dismayed that the UNHCR operations plan did not specifically cite the PKK as an issue. We pushed back, noting that naming the PKK had no operational impact on achieving Turkey's goal of closing Makhmour. In any case, this will have to be an issue for discussion between Turkey and UNHCR. Finally, Guven asked for further details on the final disposition of the camp once it is closed, expressing a preference for the camp to be turned over to central GOI authorities. (COMMENT: This appears to be an issue for Turkey, Iraq, and UNHCR to discuss. END COMMENT.) ¶4. (C) We asked Guven if he also intended to hold substantive discussions in Geneva on the Tripartite Agreement (T.A.) itself. He said he did not, adding that he has intentionally avoided bringing other GOT agencies into a discussion of the T.A. to this point. In his view, the T.A. as negotiated more than two years ago (but never implemented) should remain as much as possible unchanged. He is concerned that if it is opened up once again for discussion, not only UNHCR and the Iraqis but other GOT agencies may demand wholesale changes. He intends to present the T.A. to the Turkish interagency as an already agreed document in order to minimize any attempts to re-open negotiations. (COMMENT: We applaud Guven's action, and hope UNHCR and the GOI will take the same view. END COMMENT.) Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON