TURKISH TROOPS MOVEMENTS OUT OF THE NEWS--FOR NOW

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002876 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2026 TAGS: PREL PTER MOPS TU IZ IR SUBJECT: TURKISH TROOPS MOVEMENTS OUT OF THE NEWS--FOR NOW REF: ANKARA 2506 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Counselor for Political-Military Affairs Timothy A. Bett s for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S/REL GBR) Summary: Other events have pushed the issue of PKK violence and troop movements within Turkey to deal with it off the front pages, but this is likely only temporary. PKK violence and Turkish countermeasures continue. Turkey may/may have fired two mortar rounds near an Iraqi village just over the border (there were no casualties). Turkish military sources deny the attack, but we continue to remind them that cross-border action is unwise. End summary. ¶2. (C/NF) The crises in Turkey-Canada and Turkey-France relations over the Armenian genocide issue, continuing coverage on Iran, and now presumably on the May 17 shooting at the Council of State have all served to push the issue of the PKK and Turkish troop movements off the front pages of the Turkish press. This is not likely to remain permanent, however. Press reports continue about PKK violence in the southeast and Turkish casualties. Intelligence reporting suggests that about 140 Turkish security forces and 10 civilians have been killed in PKK violence so far in 2006. We will update these statistics periodically. ¶3. (S/REL GBR) We understand that the Kurdish authorities in Dohuk comlained to MNF-I forces there that on the evenin of May 12 the Turkish military launched mortr fire toward a village three kilometers south of the border, near the town of Kani Masi. Turkey maintains some of its forces in northern Iraq about 20 kilometers from the village. There were no casualties. MNF-I investigated May 14 and found two small craters and shrapnel likely consistent with 60 mm mortar rounds. Villagers generally agreed on the following account: --Approximately one week ago, what appeared to be Turkish helicopters conducted an aerial reconnaissance or overflight of the area and departed. --On Friday, May 12, the village was engaged by indirect fire from the north between the hours of 2000 and 2300 local. --Villagers observed another helicopter approach from the north on Saturday, May 13. ¶4. (S/REL GBR) Given the mountainous terrain, it is not possible to judge for sure the direction from which the mortars came. We understand the Turkish military, KDP peshmerga, and the PKK all have 60 mm mortars. Task Force Band of Brothers' liaison officer with Turkish Special Forces inquired with Special Forces HQ in the border town of Silopi, who denied any knowledge of such an attack. The story broke May 18 in the Turkish press. In the story, an Iraqi Kurdish official complained of two Turkish attacks in the past week; the story claimed an unnamed Turkish MFA senior official denied the charges. When we asked GOT Deputy Special Envoy to Iraq Fazli Corman about this story the same day, he denied any knowledge of the incident. ¶5. (S/REL GBR) We raised the incident May 16 with RADM Soner Polat of the TGS J2, and reminded him that any Turkish cross-border operation (CBO) is inadvisable. Polat responded that he had not heard of the incident and would investigate. A member of Polat's staff called us the following day to report that the incident did not occur. We also met May 17 with Polat's boss, J2 Chief LTG Aslan Guner, who repeated his previous assurances to us that Turkey will not carry out any CBO without discussing the matter with us. ¶6. (S/REL GBR) COMMENT: It is possible that Turkey fired a couple of mortars over the border, but the evidence is hardly incontrovertible. This is, however, the first allegation of Turkish activity across the border that is backed up by facts that indicate something occurred. In any case, we have registered our concern with the military, and they know we ANKARA 00002876 002 OF 002 will remain vigilant. END COMMENT. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON