SCENESETTER FOR MAY 7-8 VISIT OF CODEL PENCE TO

UNCLAS ANKARA 002416 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO H/BARBARA FLECK E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OREP TU SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR MAY 7-8 VISIT OF CODEL PENCE TO TURKEY REF: STATE 66587 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Your visit follows a successful visit by Secretary Rice which paved the way for a new "strategic SIPDIS dialogue" with Turkey on issues of mutual import. Turkey is a strong ally in the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT), facilitating the distribution of critical supplies and fuel to the coalition in Iraq and supporting the NATO Training Mission (NTM-I) there; publicly calling on Iran to comply with its IAEA commitments; and pressuring Syria and Hamas to renounce their support for terrorism. This summer Turkey will share command of ISAF-Central with France and Italy and open its first Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Afghanistan. But there are challenges. Bilateral defense cooperation is on the decline. An increased Turkish security presence along the Iraqi border to combat an up-tick in PKK terrorist activity has raised concerns with the Iraqi government and increased pressure for someone (US, Iraq, or Turkey) to take action. Turkey's EU accession aspirations are frustrated by slow implementation of reforms and the lack of progress on Cyprus. You may wish to welcome their partnership in GWOT and urge Turkey to stand firmly and publicly with the international community on Iran, especially as chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Larijani will also be visiting Ankara May 8. END SUMMARY. STRATEGIC DIALOGUE -------------- ¶2. (SBU) During an April 25 visit to Ankara, Secretary Rice unveiled with Foreign Minister Gul an agreement to formalize a regular series of meetings to further our bilateral efforts on issues such as Iraq, Iran, the Caucasus and Central Asia, among others. As a majority Muslim country that straddles Europe and the Middle East, Turkey shares a history and culture with many countries of US concern and is poised to increase its constructive role in Iraq and Afghanistan, in the Broader Middle East and North Africa (BMENA) initiative and potentially in the Middle East Peace Process. This will also provide a forum to dialogue with Turkey on issues of importance to its future, including Cyprus and the EU accession process. A PARTNER IN GWOT -------------- Iraq: ¶3. (SBU) Turkey's agreement to allow the use of its territory as a logistical hub has been a crucial asset in our Iraq �00A;operations. Two-thirds of gasoline and diesel fuel shipments (3 million gallons per day) for the Iraqi people and 25% of sustainment fuel for the coalition crosses into Iraq through the Ground Line of Communication at Habur Border Gate. Since Turkey approved the use of Incirlik Air Base as a cargo hub to support coalition operations in Iraq in May 2005, over 152 million pounds of equipment has been shipped to US troops. Six C-17 aircraft now deliver from Incirlik the amount of supplies it took 9-10 planes to deliver from Germany. Additionally ten KC-135 tanker aircraft based at Incirlik since 2003 have run 2800 refueling sorties, delivering 192 million pounds of fuel in support of Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom. Turkey has four personnel assigned to NTM-I in Iraq and, under this rubric, has trained 57 Iraqi military officers in Turkey. Iraqis have pledged to send officers to at least seven additional courses this year. ¶4. (SBU) Turkey shares the US goal of a unified, democratic Iraq that is secure within it borders. While Kurdish aspirations and the PKK presence in northern Iraq remain a significant concern, the government is contributing to efforts to ensure the success of the country as a whole. The GOT vocally supported the participation of all ethnic and religious groups in the elections and the constitution referendum; and separately hosted a multi-party conference on the Iraqi constitution, a dialogue of hard-line Sunni leaders with US Ambassador Khalilzad, and a meeting of tribal leaders from the city of Talafar in an effort to calm the situation there. It provided extensive training to over 300 Iraqi diplomats and political party members, and spearheaded a "neighbors meetings" process which has helped Iraqi government leaders interact with their regional counterparts. ¶5. (SBU) In addition to Turkey's desire for political stability, a sovereign, stable Iraq is in Turkey's economic interests. Bilateral trade in 2005 was $2.87 billion, of which $2.42B was Turkish exports to Iraq. Turkey exports 270 MW of electricity to northern Iraq. Both countries aim to increase electricity exports from Turkey to 1000MW, which equates to 25% of Iraq's current peak capacity. Turkey has pledged $50M in assistance to Iraq for energy, health and other projects, which remains mostly unfunded for security reasons. Turkey's port of Ceyhan is the terminus of the oil pipeline from Kirkuk. Afghanistan: ¶6. (SBU) Turkey has twice successfully led the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, most recently from February to August 2005. Beginning in mid-2006, it will share joint command of ISAF-Central in Kabul for a two-year period, and will open its first PRT in the neighboring province of Wardak. PM Erdogan visited Afghanistan in spring 2005 and subsequently increased Turkey's pledged assistance ten-fold to $100M. This will be allocated in $16M increments for five years to build schools, hospitals, medical clinics and drinking water wells throughout the country. Four hospitals have already been constructed. The GOT provides counter-narcotics training in Turkey to Afghan security forces and will initiate such training in Afghanistan this year under the auspices of the Wardak PRT. President Karzai demonstrated his gratitude for Turkey's assistance by participating in a March counter-terrorism conference at Turkey's NATO Center of Excellence for the Defense Against Terrorism. Other: ¶7. (SBU) In addition to its efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, Turkey continues to contribute forces to the peacekeeping efforts in the Balkans and provides training to Georgian security forces, including for pipeline security. Turkey has contributed $41M in equipment to Georgia over the past six years, and has trained some 1400 Georgian personnel. In Azerbaijan, Turkey has provided some $150M in equipment and over $100M in training and facilities over the past six years. INCREASING PKK THREAT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Since ending its self-imposed cease-fire in May 2004, the PKK terrorist group has stepped up bomb attacks in Istanbul and increasingly clashed with Turkish security forces in the country's southeast. A PKK off-shoot, the Kurdish Freedom Hawks (TAK),has warned foreigners to stay away from Turkey and threatened additional attacks in tourist centers. The funerals of 14 PKK terrorists killed in a March operation led to civil unrest in Diyarbakir and other southeastern cities, which in several cases turned violent. Televised news programs are filled with the funerals of Turkish security forces. Tourism bookings are down from ¶2005. ¶9. (SBU) The PKK issue is the biggest irritant in bilateral relations. The Turkish public and the GOT expect the US to take action against the PKK in Iraq. The government welcomes our efforts with European allies to eliminate the PKK's financing sources and support networks in Europe and our intelligence-sharing program, but both the GOT and the public insist on US action against the PKK presence in northern Iraq. While recognizing that the insurgency prevents coalition troops from engaging the PKK in Iraq, the GOT remains frustrated at its inability, and US unwillingness, to stop attacks it believes are emanating from the other side of its border. ¶10. (SBU) Security forces have had some success against the PKK in Istanbul and Ankara, where significant caches of plastic explosives were found and suspects arrested. The early up-tick in terrorist activity in 2006 also hastened the military's push to strengthen its troop presence along Turkey's border with Iraq, as it does every spring. The Turkish press speculates that Turkey is either already conducting or will engage in cross-border operations into northern Iraq where the PKK has a presence. The Chief of the Turkish General Staff GEN Hilmi Ozkok and FM Abdullah Gul have both publicly dismissed these reports and said that Turkey is doing nothing more than protecting its sovereign territory, as it does every year. REGIONAL DIPLOMACY -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Given its shared historical, cultural and religious ties with countries in the region, as well as its geographic location bridging both east and west, Turkey feels both a right and a responsibility to engage countries of concern on issues of importance to the international community. Turkey has worked hard in recent years to re-establish relations with Iran and Syria both to bolster its fight against the PKK, which has a presence in those countries, and to strengthen its economic ties. It also believes that, as the only Muslim country that has good relations with both Israel and the Palestinians, it can play a special role in the peace process. Despite Western disapproval, however, the FM, representing the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), welcomed a Hamas delegation to Ankara, and the PM and FM continue to engage the Iranian and Syrian governments. In all cases, they assure us, they are sending the right messages in private. ¶12. (SBU) The MFA, military and many in the AKP government view a nuclear Iran as a threat to Turkey but all view diplomacy as the only road to a solution and therefore insist on engagement. The GOT is averse to broad economic sanctions that could disrupt a growing commercial relationship with Iran, particularly energy imports, but is willing to consult with us on targeted financial sanctions. The government's public statements -- which we are told match their private statements -- on Iran's nuclear program have significantly strengthened since Iran resumed uranium enrichment. You may want to welcome these statements and to encourage a continued strong message. This will be particularly important as Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Larijani will be in Ankara while you are here. CYPRUS THREATENS TURKEY'S EU BID -------------- ¶13. (SBU) The EU has expressed frustration with what it perceives as lackluster GOT efforts to fully implement democratic reforms. Indictments against novelist Orhan Pamuk and other writers and intellectuals for statements purportedly undermining the Turkish identity, and unresolved issues with Turkey's Kurdish population which are exacerbating the PKK problem, give ammunition to those who want to prevent Turkey's accession. But the lack of a settlement of the Cyprus question may be the biggest immediate threat to Turkey's EU bid. Turkey remains bitter over the 2004 Greek Cypriot vote against UN secretary-general Annan's plan for a comprehensive settlement and the lack of measures to reward Turkish Cypriots for their favorable vote, and continues to look to the UN for the way forward. Under its EU customs agreement, amended in 2005 to expand to include all new EU members -- including Cyprus, Turkey must open its sea and airports to Greek Cypriot vessels. Turkey is unwilling to do so in absence of some opening of Turkish Cypriot ports and has put forward a proposal that would include this. The lack of a deal could stall further EU negotiations. DEFENSE INDUSTRY COOPERATION DECLINING -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Defense industry cooperation, once the strongest aspect of our military-to-military relationship, is in significant decline. No US firm has won a direct commercial sale since Boeing was awarded a contract for an Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft in 2002. In 2004, three tenders (UAVs, Main Battle Tanks, and attack helicopters) were canceled. Two US firms, Boeing and Bell, were interested in a second attack helicopter tender, but declined to participate due to onerous liability and technology transfer requirements. (Several non-US firms did submit bids.) Sikorsky may choose not to participate in a tender for 54 utility helicopters for the Turkish Armed Forces and Forestry Service for the same reason, and Raytheon may bow out of contention for an aircraft trainer tender. Both in Ankara and in Washington, US firms and the USG have raised the technology transfer and liability concerns with Turkey's Ministry of Defense and Defense Industry Undersecretariat (SSM). Despite both Turkish military and government insistence that it wants US competition in these tenders, SSM has resisted making the necessary changes to the tenders to ensure it. AGGRESSIVE COUNTER-NARCOTICS PROGRAM -------------- ¶15. (SBU) Turkey remains a significant transit country for Southwest Asian heroin destined for European markets. Turkish law enforcement vigorously pursues opiate traffickers and have made extensive opiate seizures. Arrests resulting from large seizures are prosecuted and generally result in lengthy sentences. Over eight metric tons of heroin were seized in Turkey in 2005, while nearly ten metric tons were seized in 2004. Several of the world's largest verified opiate seizures have been made in Turkey in recent years, including 7.5 metric tons of morphine base that were captured in a single seizure in 2002. In 2004, 4.4 metric tons of morphine base were seized and in 2005 there were two heroin seizures of over 1,000 kilograms each. Turkish law enforcement is actively participating in DEA's Operation Containment, a regional plan for combating Afghan opiates. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON