TURKEY: BTC AND BOTAS AT ODDS OVER COST OVERRUNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 002009 SIPDIS SIPDIS USDOC FOR 4212/ITA/MAC/CPD/CRUSNAK DOE FOR CHARLES WASHINGTON EUR ALSO FOR MATT BRYZA AND STEVE MANN E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2016 TAGS: EPET ENRG EINV TU AZ GG SUBJECT: TURKEY: BTC AND BOTAS AT ODDS OVER COST OVERRUNS REF: A. ANKARA 1705 ¶B. ANKARA 1527 Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROSS WILSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: While construction of the BTC oil pipeline is still reportedly on track for a first tanker loading at Ceyhan on May 27 and a formal opening ceremony on July 13, BP and the Turkish pipeline construction company BOTAS, which has a lump sum, turnkey contract for construction of the Turkish portion of the pipeline, are increasingly at odds over how to allocated financial responsibility for cost overruns for construction in Turkey. In conversations in Ankara with a variety of GOT officials April 4-6, EUR DAS Bryza emphasized the BTC project,s strategic importance and potential impact on the reputation of BOTAS and Turkey, especially in the context of other potential pipeline projects . While it seems unlikely that BOTAS bears no fault for BTC,s cost overruns, BOTAS, ability to take financial responsibility is politically hampered by an environment in Turkey of almost constant investigation and accusations of corruption and poor management at BOTAS. End Summary. -------------- BTC AND BOTAS - HE SAID; SHE SAID... -------------- ¶2. (C) In meetings with GOT interlocutors, DAS Matt Bryza raised concerns about cost over-runs and delays in bringing the BTC pipeline into operation. (BP/BTC has made what it describes as a generous and reasonable offer of funding $250 million of the $330 million in BOTAS claims that are not solely attributable to scope changes in the pipeline, leaving BOTAS to cover $80 million -- see ref B.) Bryza made the case that the most important objective was timely completion of this critical and strategic pipeline. He said he could not make a technical commercial assessment of who was at fault for cost overruns, but wondered if international markets would accept that none of the disputed claims were attributable to BOTAS. Bryza noted that this could affect Turkey's and BOTAS' reputation for regional energy projects as well as the domestic energy investment environment. Moreover, arbitration would be a contentious, time-consuming, and expensive process. At the same time, ;Bryza told his interlocutors that he understood that it would be difficult for BOTAS or even the Minister of Energy to take responsibility for such a decision, given a political climate in which agreement to pay compensation to private companies might prompt allegations of corruption, as has often occurred in the recent past. Should BOTAS agree to pay a portion of the cost overrun, there might come a time when it will need to seek approval to do so from the Prime Minister. Senior BOTAS officials nodded their heads affirmatively. ¶3. (C) Energy Minister: Energy Minister Hilmi Guler asserted to Bryza on April 5 that BOTAS was not responsible for the disputed claims, claiming that they were due to scope changes that came from the BTC Consortium. Guler said that BOTAS was not doing this project for profit; rather, Turkey and BOTAS supported BTC for prestige and strategic reasons. He said that BP and the Consortium were not acting like partners to BOTAS and Turkey. The Minister argued that Turkey had been on track to finalize the project early and on budget by the time of the elections in Azerbaijan last year, but that BP had initiated significant scope changes and had suddenly adopted an intransigent position on paying claims, which delayed the project,s ANKARA 00002009 002 OF 003 completion. He said that BP now wanted to buy BOTAS International Ltd (BIL),the separate operating company for BTC, and had taken a different approach to the company. Guler reaffirmed BOTAS' commitment and ability to complete the project for the lump sum turnkey (LSTK) amount of $1.4 billion. He asserted that Turkey had completed two-thirds of the length at one-third of the total cost, complaining that the Georgia portion had created delays and lost money for the consortium. The Minister also claimed that the consortium was adopting tactics to seek to avoid having to pay a $300 million bonus due to BOTAS as a result of BOTAS (supposedly) fulfilling its contractual obligations. (Comment: This claim contradicts BTC Corporation,s arguments that BOTAS, failure to fulfill its obligations resulted in cost overruns, for which BOTAS is liable under BTC,s lump-sum turnkey contract. End comment.) Guler said that he was closely following the project in monthly meetings. Guler noted that BOTAS had been ready to send oil from Pump Station 3 (ref A),but said the Consortium arbitrarily delayed the progress of oil through the pipeline for "pigging experiments." (Note: Both sides accused the other of using "go slow" tactics. However, given the high costs of delay for the BTC consortium, it is illogical that the Consortium would intentionally delay the project. End Note.) Finally, Guler defended the expertise of BOTAS, noting that it had successfully built over 4000 km of pipelines. ¶4. (C) The Ambassador noted that arbitration could be messy and expensive, and would show lots of "dirty laundry"; negotiating a solution would be a much better path. Guler said his preference is to avoid arbitration. Guler said that the Prime Minister was aware of the issues, but the $80 million offer was not "worthy" of him. The Minister added Turkey is committed to achieving first tanker loading on May 24 -- and a formal celebration on July 13. ¶5. (C) MFA Meetings: Bryza also raised the issue with Foreign Minister Gul (septel) and with the Prime Minister's foreign policy advisor Ahmet Davutoglu at separate meetings. The Foreign Minister expressed appreciation for the comments and the mutually strategic importance of the project, but said that these issues should be raised with the Minister of Energy. MFA Energy Deputy Director General Mithat Rende, who was present for the meeting with the Energy Minister did not express a position on the issue. Finally, incoming MFA high-level Energy Coordinator Ambassador Mithat Balkan expressed an understanding of the broader strategic issues and perceptions, as well as the political and fiscal difficulty for anyone at BOTAS or the Energy Ministry to accept responsibility for any over-runs. He promised to research the issue and brief his Minister. ¶6. (C) BOTAS: Bryza raised the disputed claims with BOTAS acting DG Riza Ciftci and his staff in a separate April 5 meeting. Deputy Project Director Gokmen Cologlu was adamant that the disputed claims of $330 million (he said BOTAS had dropped $20 million from the true number of $350 million) were not the responsibility of BOTAS. He said they stemmed from scope changes from the client and were not the fault of BOTAS. Articulating a message very similar to that of the Minister of Energy, he argued that BOTAS was doing the project on a non-profit basis and expressed great frustration with BTC management. He said, "We have succeeded against nature and the BTC Consortium." ¶7. (C) Bryza responded to Ciftci that the most important goal was to complete the project, noting that the LSTK contract (and GOT Treasury guarantee) had been instrumental to getting the deal done. He noted that the cost overrun dispute and potential arbitration could affect the international reputation and investment environment of BOTAS and Turkey. The BOTAS officials noted that U.S. firm Stone and Webster did a feasibility study, which identified the cost in Turkey at $1.2 billion. This study put in question ANKARA 00002009 003 OF 003 the Consortium's assertion that the same scope project now cost $1.7 billion. The BOTAS officials asserted that the cost increase was due to changes in scope and standards. As an example, they mentioned a significant change in the specs for the pipe material to be able to handle sweet or sour crude. (BP has not disputed responsibility for this client-driven scope change.) The BOTAS officials argued that BTC had initiated many work stoppages without adequated cause. Thus, they concluded that BOTAS was sincere. They remained hopeful for a settlement, but they had approval to take the dispute to arbitration. ¶8. (C) DAS Bryza has cleared this message. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ WILSON