AI Continues to Plague Turkish Poultry Sector

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001524

SIPDIS

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GENEVA PASS HEALTH ATTACHE

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: ETRD EAGR KPAO TBIO AMED TU CASC EAID SENV ECON
SUBJECT: AI Continues to Plague Turkish Poultry Sector

Ref: (A) Ankara 5119 (B) Ankara 6105 (C) Ankara 6138

(D) Ankara 6232 (E) Ankara 6291 (F) Ankara 6430
(G) Ankara 6514 (H) Ankara 6605 (G) Ankara 7034
(J) Ankara 7318 (K) Find number and other #s


1. (U) Summary. The AI outbreak continues to plague the
poultry sector in Turkey albeit at a reduced pace. AI
has been confirmed in 151 locations in 28 provinces
throughout Turkey, according to the most recent report
from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
Poultry consumption remains down although some poultry
companies have shown more resiliency than others. End
summary.

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Turkish Provinces with Confirmed AI cases
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2. (U) According to the Ministry of Agriculture and
Rural Affairs, Avian Influenza has been confirmed in 151
locations in 28 provinces throughout Turkey as of March
15, 2006. Only one outbreak has occurred in a commercial
poultry unit and that was in a small-scale commercial
(broiler) poultry flock in eastern Anatolia. All other
outbreaks occurred in backyard (village) poultry flocks.
The Government of Turkey (GOT) instituted strict
quarantine measures and was successful in eliminating the
virus in 64 of the 151 locations. There are six
additional suspected cases of AI in backyard flocks.
There are also 24 positive cases and eight suspected
cases of AI in wild birds. As of March 15, 2006, a total
of over 8,000 birds have died from the disease and almost
2.3 million birds have been culled since the first
outbreak in October 2005.

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Government Action
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3. (U) The GOT compensated the poultry sector for losses
incurred due to the culling of 13.5 million spent hens.
In addition, according to poultry industry contacts, the
GOT may allow spent hens, primarily from the egg
industry, to be sent to rendering facilities. In the
past, spent hens were traditionally sold to small farm
holdings. Since the outbreaks, spent hens were culled
and destroyed. Under this plan egg producers will at
least be able to recoup some costs. Producers and
rendering facilities will be paid YTL 0.30 and YTL 0.10
per chicken, respectively. In Turkey, there were a about
40 million layers before the initial outbreak in October

2005. It is estimated that there are now about 26.5
million layers.

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Consumption Still Down
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4. (U) Consumption of poultry products, which decreased
significantly as a result of the first outbreak in
October, is beginning to recover. However, it is
currently estimated that poultry meat and egg consumption
is still 30 - 40 percent below last year's levels.
Poultry meat and egg prices are currently about equal to
the cost of production and are expected to increase
during the next couple of weeks. Industry sources are
expecting a major recovery of the poultry sector during
spring and summer when poultry consumption tends to
increase.

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Feed Costs
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5 (U) On March 11, 2006, the GOT increased the import
duty on soybeans from zero percent to 10 percent and on
soybean meal from eight percent to 13.5 percent. The
duty increase will significantly increase the cost of
poultry and egg production. Any hopes of a quick
recovery in the sector will be hindered by the duty
increases. Since Turkey grows only very small quantities
of soybeans (ranging between 30,000 and 50,000 MT in
recent years) with no domestic substitute the duty will
immediately affect production costs. Industry sources
are projecting that the total additional cost to the
industry will be around USD 40 million. They are also
concerned that the GOT might cancel support previously
pledged to the poultry sector as a cost savings measure.

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Comment
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7. (SBU) Comment: Although overall consumption remains
lower than normal, some poultry companies are showing
more resiliency than others. Some of the larger
companies have spent the last several years
differentiating their companies from the competition,
particularly on poultry quality. As a result, while many
companies are suffering major losses, a few companies
have been able to weather the storm because their
products as associated with better quality. The increase
in soybean duties is particularly disturbing since,
according to several sources, Foreign Trade officials
made the decision to increase duties unilaterally without
any consultation with the Ministries of Agriculture and
Industry as well as the private sector. It is even more
disturbing that Foreign Trade officials have publicly
stated that corn can be substituted for soy in feed
rations, which shows a total lack of understanding of the
poultry and feed sectors. End Comment.

WILSON