TURKEY READY TO ENGAGE ON MAKHMOUR, SEEKS SECURITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001101 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT ALSO FOR EUR DAS BRYZA DEPT ALSO FOR PRM/ANE LIANA BROOKS-RUBIN AMMAN ALSO FOR REFCOORD CLAIRE KANESHIRO CAIRO ALSO FOR REFCOORD GERRY CHEYNE BAGHDAD ALSO FOR MNF-I AND REFCOORD CAMILLE HILL E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2021 TAGS: PREF MOPS EAID SOCI PHUM PREL PTER IZ TU UNHCR SUBJECT: TURKEY READY TO ENGAGE ON MAKHMOUR, SEEKS SECURITY ASSURANCES REF: A. ANKARA 581 ¶B. 04 ANKARA 509 Classified By: Ambassador Wilson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) MFA's Director General for Security Affairs, Hayati Guven, told us March 1 that Turkey is ready to engage on closing the Makhmour refugee camp and that it considers such a step as an important objective in its battle against the PKK. The GOT seeks assurances that there will be sufficient security measures -- even if provided by the Iraqis as opposed to Coalition Forces -- to ensure the PKK cannot intimidate the residents as they decide whether to return to Turkey. Guven travels to Washington later this month. We recommend the Department be ready to discuss a security plan and to push the GOT to create as welcoming an environment as possible for returning refugees. END SUMMARY. Turkey Wants Makhmour Closed... -------------- ¶2. (C) On March 1, we called on MFA Director General for Security Affairs Amb. Hayati Guven to brief on the Feb. 22 USG-UNHCR consultations held in Amman on the Makhmour refugee camp in northern Iraq. Guven reported that he has also discussed the issue with UNHCR's Ankara representative and that Turkey wants the camp closed. As UNHCR-Ankara has done, we urged Guven to use the Tripartite Agreement (T.A.) negotiated in late 2003 as the basis for completing the voluntary return of Turkish citizens and to seek as few changes to the text as possible. ...And Seeks Security Assurances -------------- ¶3. (C) Guven agreed the T.A. remains largely acceptable to Turkey. The issues of security guarantees for completing the procedures laid out in the agreement were no less important now than they were two years ago, when the security issue derailed final agreement on the T.A. Guven plans to travel to Washington this month to meet with EUR DAS Bryza and other USG officials on this and other issues, and he hopes to learn what the U.S. is planning in terms of security. (Guven did not explicitly state whether Turkey will still insist -- as it did two years ago -- upon a side letter to the T.A. from the Secretary of State guaranteeing security.) We reminded Guven that the situation in Iraq now is different than two years ago, most significantly because the Iraqi Security Forces are now both more numerous and more capable of providing security to ensure that the PKK is not able to intimidate the camp's population while UNHCR surveys camp residents about their wishes. ¶4. (C) Guven agreed, but emphasized that whoever provides security for this operation must be prepared to remove PKK terrorists from the camp and ensure that they cannot re-enter. We countered that what is most important is that the PKK not be able to intimidate the refugees; it may/may not be necessary to actually remove people, though certainly close monitoring will be required. Guven took the point, and emphasized that he will want to hear in Washington just how prepared and capable the ISF would be to make a real contribution, and to what degree the U.S. will support this operation. He said he would need to come back from Washington with solid information that he can pass on to his superiors in Ankara before Turkey will be ready to sign on to the T.A. ¶5. (C) Guven added that the GOT may wish to reopen the T.A. to include more explicit language on how local integration in ANKARA 00001101 002.3 OF 002 Iraq would work for those Turkish citizens who choose not to return to Turkey. Specifically, Turkey is concerned that the Iraqi Kurdish authorities may seek to move people en masse to "a particular province in order to upset the demographic balance there" (read: Kirkuk). We responded that this is not really a U.S.-Turkey issue; the GOT should raise it with the Iraqi government and UNHCR. We Are Ready to Welcome Our People Back -------------- ¶6. (C) Guven emphasized that Turkey stands ready to welcome back from Makhmour its citizens who wish to return. However, he noted that as of now there is no money allocated in the Turkish budget for a large-scale return of refugees. He also expressed doubt that a significant number of refugees will want to return to Turkey. We encouraged the GOT to solve the budgetary issue, and, more broadly, to ensure a welcoming atmosphere for the returnees. ¶7. (C) Finally, Guven underscored that the GOT views the closure of Makhmour as a significant objective in its fight against terrorism, adding that it would also be a concrete demonstration of U.S.-Turkish cooperation against the PKK. He said he was "quite satisfied" with overall U.S.-Turkish cooperation against the PKK. Messages for Guven -------------- ¶8. (C) From our perspective, there are two messages we need to be ready to give Guven in Washington: SECURITY: --We should be prepared to describe what steps will be taken to provide an atmosphere in Makhmour where UNHCR can do its work and refugees can consider their options free of intimidation from the PKK. Security provided primarily by former peshmerga units would need at a minimum clear re-hatting as ISF. A small U.S. presence embedded with this unit, an MNF-I LNO, or some other impartial component would raise Turkish confidence. We can only note that absent a serious plan for providing security, Turkey will not sign off on the T.A., thus leaving the refugees without a viable option to return here in an orderly way under UNHCR protection. SAFE RETURN: --We should also emphasize the opportunity that closing Makhmour represents. Welcoming Turkey's Kurdish citizens/refugees back in a way consistent with international norms will send an important signal to Turkey's Kurds and may ameliorate the PKK problem. The GOT should move smartly on whatever budgetary steps are necessary to meet the needs of returning refugees. While Guven believes that not many refugees will choose to return to Turkey (and he may be right),this will become a self-fulfilling prophecy if the GOT does not do what it can to welcome its citizens home. Additionally, there are certain areas -- such as recognizing educational qualifications earned in Iraq and considering a waiver of military service -- in which the GOT should be forthcoming. WILSON