JORDAN AWAITS THE PRESIDENT'S VISIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 008598

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2016
TAGS: PGOV JO
SUBJECT: JORDAN AWAITS THE PRESIDENT'S VISIT


CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR DAVID HALE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

SUMMARY
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1. ( SBU ) SUMMARY: JORDAN IS ABUZZ IN ANTICIPATION OF
PRESIDENT BUSH'S SECOND VISIT TO THE COUNTRY. THE LEADERSHIP
VIEWS THE VISIT AS A CHANCE TO ADVANCE ITS VIEWS ON IRAQ AND
OTHER REGIONAL ISSUES AND BE SEEN AS A FAVORED PARTNER OF THE
U.S. TRADITIONAL CRITICS ARE RAISING THEIR VOICES IN
PROTEST. MEANWHILE, LIBERALS AND REFORMERS ARE LARGELY
STAYING OUT OF THE FRAY. END SUMMARY.

THE LEADERSHIP
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2. ( C ) THE LEADERSHIP SEES THE VISIT AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO
BEEN SEEN AS A VALUED MIDDLE EASTERN PARTNER, AND TO ADVANCE
ITS VIEWS ON THE ISRAELI/PALESTINIAN PEACE PROCESS AND IRAQ.
THE LEADERSHIP WOULD LIKE TO REVIVE THE PEACE PROCESS BY
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF WHAT IT SEES AS A WILLINGNESS BY MODERATE
ARAB STATES TO ENGAGE WITH ISRAEL. MEANWHILE, THERE IS DEEP
CONCERN ABOUT POSSIBLE CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF THE
SITUATION IN IRAQ AND OF THE OVERALL THREAT POSED BY IRAN TO
REGIONAL STABILITY.


3. ( SBU ) HOSTING THE PRESIDENT'S MEETING WITH PM MALIKI
SIGNIFICANTLY RAISES JORDAN'S PROFILE IN THE REGION. LOCAL
MEDIA HAVE NOTED THAT THIS IS THE PRESIDENT'S SECOND VISIT TO
JORDAN (THE FIRST WAS AT THE AQABA SUMMIT IN JUNE 2003) WHILE
HE HAS NOT VISITED ISRAEL, TURKEY OR THE GULF COUNTRIES
DURING HIS TIME AS PRESIDENT.

CRITICS
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4. ( C ) THOSE ELEMENTS ON THE JORDANIAN POLITICAL SCENE
THAT HAVE BEEN LOUDLY CRITICIZING U.S. POLICY FOR MONTHS
(ESPECIALLY SINCE THE ISRAEL - HEZBOLLAH CONFLICT) ARE
REDOUBLING THEIR CRITICISM IN THE MEDIA. THE ISLAMIC ACTION
FRONT (IAF) ISSUED A STATEMENT SAYING THE FRONT "REJECTS THE
VISIT." IT CALLED FOR OTHER GROUPS "TO DENOUNCE THE VISIT
AND TO EXPRESS THEIR REJECTION OF IT BY PEACEFUL MEANS."
AL-GHAD, THE INDEPENDENT, CENTRIST AND WIDELY CIRCULATED
ARABIC DAILY, PUBLISHED AN UNSIGNED COMMENTARY ECHOING THIS
CALL SAYING, "IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO GIVE ROOM
TO POPULAR FORCES TO EXPRESS THEIR OPINION AND REJECTION OF
BUSH'S VISIT." AN IRAQI GROUP HAS ALSO CALLED FOR
DEMONSTRATIONS. NOTE: THE AUTHORITIES INTEND TO PREVENT
DEMONSTRATIONS FROM OCCURRING; IF SOME OCCUR ANYWAY, THEY ARE
LIKELY TO BE QUICKLY ISOLATED AND CONTAINED, JUDGING FROM
PAST EXPERIENCE. END NOTE.


5. ( SBU ) IN ITS STATEMENT, THE IAF WARNED THE GOJ THAT
THIS MEETING REPRESENTS THE BEGINNING OF A SHIFT IN U.S.
POSITION ON IRAQ, AND URGED A CAREFUL CONSIDERATION OF
JORDAN,S POSITION IN THE FUTURE.


6. ( SBU ) MEANWHILE, AL-ARAB AL-YAWM (A SENSATIONALIST,
WIDELY-READ, ANTI-U.S. DAILY) ERRONEOUSLY REPORTED ON
NOVEMBER 23 THAT PRESIDENT BUSH WOULD JOIN PALESTINIAN
PRESIDENT ABBAS AND KING ABDULLAH IN A SUMMIT MEETING DURING
HIS VISIT TO JORDAN.

REFORMERS AND LIBERALS REMAIN SILENT
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7. ( C ) REFORMERS AND LIBERALS ARE LARGELY REMAINING QUIET.
THEY LOWERED THEIR PROFILES DRAMATICALLY AFTER THE
ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH CONFLICT, AND MANY TOLD US THEY HAD TO DO SO
BECAUSE DEFENDING REFORM OR THE JORDANIAN-AMERICAN
RELATIONSHIP SUBJECTED THEM TO MORE CRITICISM FROM FRIENDS
AND FAMILY THAN THEY WERE WILLING TO ENDURE.

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