JORDAN AWAITS THE PRESIDENT'S VISIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 008598 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2016 TAGS: PGOV JO SUBJECT: JORDAN AWAITS THE PRESIDENT'S VISIT CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR DAVID HALE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. ( SBU ) SUMMARY: JORDAN IS ABUZZ IN ANTICIPATION OF PRESIDENT BUSH'S SECOND VISIT TO THE COUNTRY. THE LEADERSHIP VIEWS THE VISIT AS A CHANCE TO ADVANCE ITS VIEWS ON IRAQ AND OTHER REGIONAL ISSUES AND BE SEEN AS A FAVORED PARTNER OF THE U.S. TRADITIONAL CRITICS ARE RAISING THEIR VOICES IN PROTEST. MEANWHILE, LIBERALS AND REFORMERS ARE LARGELY STAYING OUT OF THE FRAY. END SUMMARY. THE LEADERSHIP -------------- ¶2. ( C ) THE LEADERSHIP SEES THE VISIT AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO BEEN SEEN AS A VALUED MIDDLE EASTERN PARTNER, AND TO ADVANCE ITS VIEWS ON THE ISRAELI/PALESTINIAN PEACE PROCESS AND IRAQ. THE LEADERSHIP WOULD LIKE TO REVIVE THE PEACE PROCESS BY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF WHAT IT SEES AS A WILLINGNESS BY MODERATE ARAB STATES TO ENGAGE WITH ISRAEL. MEANWHILE, THERE IS DEEP CONCERN ABOUT POSSIBLE CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF THE SITUATION IN IRAQ AND OF THE OVERALL THREAT POSED BY IRAN TO REGIONAL STABILITY. ¶3. ( SBU ) HOSTING THE PRESIDENT'S MEETING WITH PM MALIKI SIGNIFICANTLY RAISES JORDAN'S PROFILE IN THE REGION. LOCAL MEDIA HAVE NOTED THAT THIS IS THE PRESIDENT'S SECOND VISIT TO JORDAN (THE FIRST WAS AT THE AQABA SUMMIT IN JUNE 2003) WHILE HE HAS NOT VISITED ISRAEL, TURKEY OR THE GULF COUNTRIES DURING HIS TIME AS PRESIDENT. CRITICS -------------- ¶4. ( C ) THOSE ELEMENTS ON THE JORDANIAN POLITICAL SCENE THAT HAVE BEEN LOUDLY CRITICIZING U.S. POLICY FOR MONTHS (ESPECIALLY SINCE THE ISRAEL - HEZBOLLAH CONFLICT) ARE REDOUBLING THEIR CRITICISM IN THE MEDIA. THE ISLAMIC ACTION FRONT (IAF) ISSUED A STATEMENT SAYING THE FRONT "REJECTS THE VISIT." IT CALLED FOR OTHER GROUPS "TO DENOUNCE THE VISIT AND TO EXPRESS THEIR REJECTION OF IT BY PEACEFUL MEANS." AL-GHAD, THE INDEPENDENT, CENTRIST AND WIDELY CIRCULATED ARABIC DAILY, PUBLISHED AN UNSIGNED COMMENTARY ECHOING THIS CALL SAYING, "IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO GIVE ROOM TO POPULAR FORCES TO EXPRESS THEIR OPINION AND REJECTION OF BUSH'S VISIT." AN IRAQI GROUP HAS ALSO CALLED FOR DEMONSTRATIONS. NOTE: THE AUTHORITIES INTEND TO PREVENT DEMONSTRATIONS FROM OCCURRING; IF SOME OCCUR ANYWAY, THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE QUICKLY ISOLATED AND CONTAINED, JUDGING FROM PAST EXPERIENCE. END NOTE. ¶5. ( SBU ) IN ITS STATEMENT, THE IAF WARNED THE GOJ THAT THIS MEETING REPRESENTS THE BEGINNING OF A SHIFT IN U.S. POSITION ON IRAQ, AND URGED A CAREFUL CONSIDERATION OF JORDAN,S POSITION IN THE FUTURE. ¶6. ( SBU ) MEANWHILE, AL-ARAB AL-YAWM (A SENSATIONALIST, WIDELY-READ, ANTI-U.S. DAILY) ERRONEOUSLY REPORTED ON NOVEMBER 23 THAT PRESIDENT BUSH WOULD JOIN PALESTINIAN PRESIDENT ABBAS AND KING ABDULLAH IN A SUMMIT MEETING DURING HIS VISIT TO JORDAN. REFORMERS AND LIBERALS REMAIN SILENT -------------- ¶7. ( C ) REFORMERS AND LIBERALS ARE LARGELY REMAINING QUIET. THEY LOWERED THEIR PROFILES DRAMATICALLY AFTER THE ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH CONFLICT, AND MANY TOLD US THEY HAD TO DO SO BECAUSE DEFENDING REFORM OR THE JORDANIAN-AMERICAN RELATIONSHIP SUBJECTED THEM TO MORE CRITICISM FROM FRIENDS AND FAMILY THAN THEY WERE WILLING TO ENDURE. VISIT AMMAN'S CLASSIFIED WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.STATE.SGOV.GOV/P/NEA/AMMAN/ HALE