JORDANIAN ISLAMISTS AFTER THE HAMAS VICTORY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000809 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL KMPI JO SUBJECT: JORDANIAN ISLAMISTS AFTER THE HAMAS VICTORY REF: A. AMMAN 718 ¶B. AMMAN 520 ¶C. 05 AMMAN 7979 Classified By: CDA Daniel Rubinstein for Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Jordanian Islamists celebrated the Hamas election victory with assertive public statements and by sending a delegation to Damascus to congratulate Hamas leaders. Jordan's legal Islamists have a long history of pragmatism, but some of their leaders have adopted a new, more assertive tone in recent days. The Islamic movement's internal elections this month will provide an early indication of what, if any, effect the Hamas win will have here. End Summary. -------------- CONGRATULATIONS AND AMBITIONS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) It is still too early to tell how Hamas' victory will affect the popularity of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood (JMB) and its political wing, the Islamic Action Front (IAF). JMB/IAF activists are, however, clearly energized by the past week's events on the other side of the River Jordan (ref A). On January 30, the JMB took out large advertisements in a number of Arabic dailies to "congratulate the warrior Palestinian people and the Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas" on the elections, which it characterized as "a model to be emulated in the region." On January 31, a delegation headed by JMB Controller General Abdul Majid Thneibat, IAF Secretary General Hamza Mansour and IAF Shura Council Chairman Abdul Latif Arabiyat traveled to Damascus to personally congratulate Hamas leadership resident in Syria on the results of the Palestinian elections. ¶3. (SBU) In a surprise statement on January 30, the leader of the IAF bloc in the Chamber of Deputies, MP Azzam Al-Huneidi (West Banker, Amman) announced that Islamists were "ready" to score an electoral victory in Jordan similar to that of Hamas and to "take charge of the government." Huneidi told London-based Al Hayat the same day that the Islamic movement in Jordan "is growing and no one will be able to block it." Using unusually strong language (for an Islamist in Jordan),he claimed that the GOJ actively sought to suppress Islamists using "policies of exclusion, marginalization, tailoring of laws, falsification and tampering with the will of the masses." He took particular aim at the parliamentary elections law currently in force, calling it "backward" and "made to marginalize the Islamic movement" so as to produce a parliament that is "weak and made up of members who act in the way the government wants." Huneidi claimed Jordanian Islamists would win a parliamentary majority "if a fair election law is endorsed." ¶4. (C) Huneidi repeated some of these comments during an invitation-only forum sponsored by the "Al Urdun Al Jadeed" research center on January 31 to discuss the Palestinian elections. At the forum, POL FSN heard Huneidi berate Senator (and former Prime Minister) Abdul Salam Majali for his part in amending Jordan's national elections law prior to the 1997 parliamentary elections. (NOTE: That change ended a proportional representation system, and brought in a one person, one vote system using geographic districts, which many claim was meant to reduce the clout of Palestinian-Jordanian voters. END NOTE.) Huneidi said the current law "discriminated against groups of people" and was "targeted directly at (Islamists)." Majali denied the accusations. ¶5. (U) The GOJ's response to Huneidi's public remarks has been measured. When asked about the IAF's readiness to lead the government, GOJ Spokesperson Nasser Judeh told the press on February 1 that, "The Islamic movement in Jordan is part of the system. They are Muslims in a Muslim country with allegiance to the Hashemite leadership. They never work outside the system and history proves their credentials." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Amman's political class is speculating about whether a "Hamas effect" will boost the JMB/IAF, or instead trigger a popular reaction against them. The assertive stance recently taken by Huneidi toward the GOJ is in marked contrast to the traditionally more conciliatory posture toward the government assumed by old-guard Islamist leaders such as IAF Secretary General Mansour and JMB Controller General Thneibat with the government (ref A). During this month, the JMB and IAF will each be holding a long-scheduled series of internal caucuses to select new governing Shura councils and executive boards. ¶7. (C) In recent years, the IAF and JMB - although still formally led by a mostly East Bank old guard - have become leading voices for the grievances of Palestinian-Jordanians, who now make up more than half of the movement's young recruits. The Hamas election victory will bolster the movement's determination to press for a new parliamentary elections law to replace the current system which dilutes the voice of Palestinian-Jordanian (and Islamist) voters in urban areas (ref C). Even before the Palestinian elections, IAF Shura Council Chairman Arabiyat was complaining to local press on January 23 that an expected new law on political parties "will not achieve the desired political reform without a democratic elections law that grants political parties the right to participate in and influence the parliament." Conversely, renewed fears of a strong Islamist showing at the polls will increase the resolve of East Bank traditionalists to resist any change to the parliamentary electoral system. End Comment. Rubinstein