IRAQI POPULATION IN JORDAN INCREASING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 006781

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREF ECON SMIG IZ JO
SUBJECT: IRAQI POPULATION IN JORDAN INCREASING

REF: A. 05 AMMAN 3963

B. AMMAN 177

C. TD-314/60389-06

D. AMMAN 6761

Classified By: Ambassador David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) Informed estimates of the number of Iraqis here now
range from 500,000 to one million. Jordan's Ministry of
Interior estimates that approximately thirty thousand Iraqis
have moved to Jordan in the first half of 2006. By
comparison, about thirty thousand Iraqis moved to Jordan in
all of 2005. Jordan's population in 2002 was 5.3 million.


2. (U) Until early 2006, the majority of Iraqis in Jordan
were likely working class Shi'a. Interior Ministry contacts
and Jordanian border officials believe that over past six
months, the flow of migrants has taken on a more Sunni,
middle class, and upper class tinge. Most embassy contacts
among the Iraqi community here relate the changing volume and
nature of the flow to the security situation in Iraq,
especially Baghdad.

POLITICALLY QUIESCENT
--------------


3. (U) Several politically active Sunni figures (e.g., Khalaf
al-Ayan, Saleh Mutlak, Harith al Dhari, Hassib al-Obeidi, Ali
Sajri) now appear to spend the majority of their time in
Jordan. However, the overwhelming majority of Iraqis in
Jordan are politically inactive. Supported by the Al-Gaood
family, a new Iraqi political party, the "National Liberal
Front," met in Amman in mid-August. The party has no mass
base and is led by long-time migrs who have yet to
demonstrate credible political pull inside Iraq or Jordan
(ref C.) See ref D for an assessment of Jordan's efforts to
block terrorist and former regime element finance.

OVERSTAYS
--------------


4. (SBU) One of the things that makes Jordan attractive to
Iraqis is the visa-free entry regime for Iraqi visitors, and
the GOJ's unwillingness (or inability) to enforce immigration
rules against Iraqi "visitors" who overstay. According to
Hanna Murad, political counselor at the Iraqi Embassy in
Amman, between 70 and 80 percent of Iraqis living in Jordan
are in effect "out of status." Iraqis entering Jordan
receive two-week visit permits that are renewable for up to
three months through Jordan's Ministry of Interior. Those
who remain in Jordan and fail to renew their permits are, in
theory, subject to a fine of JD 1.5 ) approximately $2.10 )
each day they overstay. This fee is supposed to be paid when
the traveler departs Jordan. Iraqis seeking work permits,
or to enroll their children in public schools, must in theory
pay the fine or face deportation. However, it appears these
rules are rarely enforced, and then usually in cases of
Iraqis detained for other offenses. Nasser Habashneh,
Director of the Minister of Interior's private office, said
approximately 30,000 Iraqi children were enrolled in
Jordanian public schools. However, many other Iraqi
children, he said, were working low-wage jobs instead of
attending school. Murad also told poloff that Jordanian
border officials were exercising their discretion to deny
entry to many Iraqi males of military age. Embassy Amman's
Civil Affairs Liaison Team confirms that Jordanian border
control authorities closely scrutinize Iraqi males and deny
many of them entry. Note: This practice is a response to the
November, 2005 bombings of three Amman hotels that killed
sixty. Suicide bombers from Iraq were responsible. END
NOTE.


5. (SBU) Jordanian home renters and buyers associate rising
real estate costs and gentrification with the growing Iraqi
population, and perpetuate the myth that most of the Iraqis
here are fat-cats. COMMENT: That said, Post understands from
wealthy Iraqi Sunni business contacts that a large majority
of their rich colleagues have left Baghdad for Amman.
Consequently, there is a very strongly-felt presence of
wealthy Sunni Iraqis here, even if they are in fact
outnumbered by their less well-heeled countrymen. END
COMMENT. The well-to-do minority of the Iraqi influx has
indeed pumped millions into West Amman's real estate markets,
enriching many Jordanian land-owners. Several new Iraqi
restaurants have opened in Amman's Rashid neighborhood ) an
area increasingly referred to as "Little Baghdad." Several
Iraqis were beaten immediately after the November hotel
bombings, but aside from these incidents, there has been
little real friction between Iraqis and Jordanians.


6. (C) Comment: Such Iraqi political action as there is here
is generated chiefly by Iraqi notables who travel briefly to

AMMAN 00006781 002 OF 002


Amman to hold meetings in secure and five-star comfort.
Jordan's longer-term Iraqi population remains shy of
politics, due in part to the perception that Jordanian
authorities are watching, and many have a tenuous legal
status here. The Iraqis' economic impact remains a net
positive for Jordan. As a security issue ) both for Jordan
and Iraq ) the Iraqi diaspora here bears watching, but until
now has remained quiet.

Visit Amman's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/
HALE