Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06AMMAN645
2006-01-27 10:16:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Amman
Cable title:
SENATOR KERRY'S MEETING WITH JORDAN'S INTELLIGENCE
how-toThis record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000645
SIPDIS
NOFORN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER IR IZ IS JO
SUBJECT: SENATOR KERRY'S MEETING WITH JORDAN'S INTELLIGENCE
CHIEF
REF: A. 05 AMMAN 9818
B. 05 AMMAN 5456
Classified By: Ambassador David Hale, for reasons 1.5 b and d
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 000645
SIPDIS
NOFORN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER IR IZ IS JO
SUBJECT: SENATOR KERRY'S MEETING WITH JORDAN'S INTELLIGENCE
CHIEF
REF: A. 05 AMMAN 9818
B. 05 AMMAN 5456
Classified By: Ambassador David Hale, for reasons 1.5 b and d
1. ( C ) Summary: Senator John Kerry,s 90-minute meeting
with Jordan,s intelligence chief centered on Iraq, and on
the intelligence service,s worries about Iran,s role there
and throughout the region. They also discussed Syria and
security in Jordan. End summary.
2. ( C ) Senator John Kerry and staff called on General
Intelligence Directorate (GID) chief Muhammad Dhahabi January
18 at GID headquarters. Ambassador, SIMO and political chief
joined.
Worries Over Iraq
--------------
3. ( C ) Dhahabi focused on concerns that Sunni Arabs in
Iraq would be excluded from a meaningful role in the next
government, leading to an intensification of the violence
there and destabilization of the region. &We are scared8
of &a new Persian empire that will use Islam8 and Iraqi
Shi,a as a tool.
4. ( C ) In Dhahabi,s analysis, the U.S. and its partners
needed to prevent the formation of a new Shi,a-Kurdish
government that &excluded the Sunnis.8 Regional stability
required a &broad national unity government8 in which Sunni
Arabs had a real share in power. He also saw a danger that
the &the Kurds will move soon to take Kirkuk.8 Such a
development, he said, would stoke Sunni Arab insurgency
further.
5. ( C ) An &exclusionary8 government and Kurdish
domination of Kirkuk would push Iraq dangerously close to de
facto &partition8; Dhahabi warned that &Hakim,s people8
will move quickly toward a strong federation of southern
provinces &that will even include Baghdad.8
Iraq,s Shi,as
--------------
6. ( C ) Dhahabi pointed to reports that torture occurred in
institutions controlled by Iraqi Interior Minister Bayan
Jabr. He also feared pro-Iranian Shi,a domination of Iraqi
security services.
7. ( C ) Kerry asked Dhahabi what he thought of those who
argue that Iraqi Shi,a ascendancy would not lead to Iranian
domination, because &SISTANI cherishes his independence8,
and the traditional animosity between Arabs and Persians was
stronger than the ties among Shi,a. Dhahabi replied that
&Hakim wants Iranian domination.8
Iraq: What to Do?
--------------
8. ( C ) Senator Kerry repeatedly asked Dhahabi what more the
U.S. should do; Dhahabi replied by praising Ambassador
Khalilzad,s pressure on all parties to move toward a
national unity government; &he needs to keep at it.8
9. ( C ) Kerry observed that the Shi,a wanted a measure of
power commensurate with their share of the population.
Obviously many Sunni Arabs were worried, but &what do you
get SISTANI to give up from the democratic share of power
they,ve earned?8 Were there key amendments to the
constitution, for instance, on which Shi,a compromise should
be sought? Dhahabi replied &that won,t be easy.8 Kerry
asked what the new government should look like. Dhahabi said
it should include Tawafuq and Allawi along with Kurds and
Shi,a. &We want Allawi in the new government.8 He should
have a ministry &with teeth8 like defense, interior, or
oil, or perhaps head the National Security Council.
10. ( C ) Kerry observed that &ministries and funding can
be negotiated, maybe even the constitutional provisions on
oil revenue, but will that satisfy the Sunnis?8 Dhahabi
thought it would. Kerry pressed, asking whether Sunnis would
accept some form of federalism. Dhahabi thought they would,
as long as it was a federalism that did not start a process
that ended in partition, as it seemed the current arrangement
would.
11. ( C) Would a guarantee of reconstruction money encourage
more Sunnis to engage in peaceful politics, the Senator
asked? Dhahabi answered that an &Anbar Marshall Plan8
would indeed have a positive effect. King Abdullah, he said,
would raise a proposal along these lines when he meets with
President Bush in February.
Iran
--------------
12. ( C ) Dhahabi described Iranian President Ahmadinejad as
&calculating.8 Iran,s ambitions, whether in Iraq or on
nuclear issues, could ¬ go unchecked.8 Asked about a
military option, Dhahabi replied &it,s not viable because
your soldiers in Iraq will be like the (Embassy Tehran)
hostages of 1979.8 Even effective, multilateral sanctions
might trigger &an Iranian response against your soldiers in
Iraq.8
Syria
--------------
13. ( C ) Many insurgents were crossing into Iraq from
Syria, Dhahabi claimed. &Bashar is engaging in
brinksmanship, and thinks he can outlast U.S. pressure.8
Asked about Syrian opposition, Dhahabi said there is nothing,
externally or internally. Khaddam is discredited because of
his reputation for corruption and past association the
current regime. The Syrian regime,s pillars are &solid.8
Regional Intel Chiefs Consulting on Iraq
--------------
14. (S/NF) Dhahabi said a committee of intelligence service
chiefs from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Kuwait, Egypt and
the Emirates that had been meeting since November. It was
coordinating efforts to bolster moderate Iraqi Sunnis and
help them gain traction in the political process. Dhahabi
said the Saudis had been instrumental in organizing this
initiative.
GID Focused on Disrupting New Attacks Inside Jordan
-------------- --------------
15. (S/NF) Dhahabi said the GID had disrupted more than
eighty attempts by terrorists to attack GOJ and western
targets in Jordan; many of these attempts had been directed
against the GID building. He said the GOJ repeatedly foiled
attempts using Jordanian operatives, &so the terrorists have
switched to using Iraqis and Syrians,8 as in the cases of
the August 19 rocket attacks in Aqaba, and the November 9
Amman hotel bombings. Dhahabi expected Zarqawi and his ilk
to avoid future mass casualties among Jordanian civilians,
and to redouble their attempts to hit GOJ and western
targets.
Participants
--------------
16. (S/NF) Participants in the meeting, which began at 8:00
PM, included:
Jordan:
General Intelligence Director Muhammad Dhahabi
GID Iraqi affairs specialist Sa,di Za,tari
Royal Court Advisor Abdullah Woreikat
U.S.:
Senator John Kerry
Senate Foreign Relations Committee staffer Nancy Stetson
Military escort Maj. John Ulrich, USA
Ambassador
Amman SIMO Chief
PolCouns (notetaker)
17. (U) Codel Kerry cleared this message.
Hale
SIPDIS
NOFORN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER IR IZ IS JO
SUBJECT: SENATOR KERRY'S MEETING WITH JORDAN'S INTELLIGENCE
CHIEF
REF: A. 05 AMMAN 9818
B. 05 AMMAN 5456
Classified By: Ambassador David Hale, for reasons 1.5 b and d
1. ( C ) Summary: Senator John Kerry,s 90-minute meeting
with Jordan,s intelligence chief centered on Iraq, and on
the intelligence service,s worries about Iran,s role there
and throughout the region. They also discussed Syria and
security in Jordan. End summary.
2. ( C ) Senator John Kerry and staff called on General
Intelligence Directorate (GID) chief Muhammad Dhahabi January
18 at GID headquarters. Ambassador, SIMO and political chief
joined.
Worries Over Iraq
--------------
3. ( C ) Dhahabi focused on concerns that Sunni Arabs in
Iraq would be excluded from a meaningful role in the next
government, leading to an intensification of the violence
there and destabilization of the region. &We are scared8
of &a new Persian empire that will use Islam8 and Iraqi
Shi,a as a tool.
4. ( C ) In Dhahabi,s analysis, the U.S. and its partners
needed to prevent the formation of a new Shi,a-Kurdish
government that &excluded the Sunnis.8 Regional stability
required a &broad national unity government8 in which Sunni
Arabs had a real share in power. He also saw a danger that
the &the Kurds will move soon to take Kirkuk.8 Such a
development, he said, would stoke Sunni Arab insurgency
further.
5. ( C ) An &exclusionary8 government and Kurdish
domination of Kirkuk would push Iraq dangerously close to de
facto &partition8; Dhahabi warned that &Hakim,s people8
will move quickly toward a strong federation of southern
provinces &that will even include Baghdad.8
Iraq,s Shi,as
--------------
6. ( C ) Dhahabi pointed to reports that torture occurred in
institutions controlled by Iraqi Interior Minister Bayan
Jabr. He also feared pro-Iranian Shi,a domination of Iraqi
security services.
7. ( C ) Kerry asked Dhahabi what he thought of those who
argue that Iraqi Shi,a ascendancy would not lead to Iranian
domination, because &SISTANI cherishes his independence8,
and the traditional animosity between Arabs and Persians was
stronger than the ties among Shi,a. Dhahabi replied that
&Hakim wants Iranian domination.8
Iraq: What to Do?
--------------
8. ( C ) Senator Kerry repeatedly asked Dhahabi what more the
U.S. should do; Dhahabi replied by praising Ambassador
Khalilzad,s pressure on all parties to move toward a
national unity government; &he needs to keep at it.8
9. ( C ) Kerry observed that the Shi,a wanted a measure of
power commensurate with their share of the population.
Obviously many Sunni Arabs were worried, but &what do you
get SISTANI to give up from the democratic share of power
they,ve earned?8 Were there key amendments to the
constitution, for instance, on which Shi,a compromise should
be sought? Dhahabi replied &that won,t be easy.8 Kerry
asked what the new government should look like. Dhahabi said
it should include Tawafuq and Allawi along with Kurds and
Shi,a. &We want Allawi in the new government.8 He should
have a ministry &with teeth8 like defense, interior, or
oil, or perhaps head the National Security Council.
10. ( C ) Kerry observed that &ministries and funding can
be negotiated, maybe even the constitutional provisions on
oil revenue, but will that satisfy the Sunnis?8 Dhahabi
thought it would. Kerry pressed, asking whether Sunnis would
accept some form of federalism. Dhahabi thought they would,
as long as it was a federalism that did not start a process
that ended in partition, as it seemed the current arrangement
would.
11. ( C) Would a guarantee of reconstruction money encourage
more Sunnis to engage in peaceful politics, the Senator
asked? Dhahabi answered that an &Anbar Marshall Plan8
would indeed have a positive effect. King Abdullah, he said,
would raise a proposal along these lines when he meets with
President Bush in February.
Iran
--------------
12. ( C ) Dhahabi described Iranian President Ahmadinejad as
&calculating.8 Iran,s ambitions, whether in Iraq or on
nuclear issues, could ¬ go unchecked.8 Asked about a
military option, Dhahabi replied &it,s not viable because
your soldiers in Iraq will be like the (Embassy Tehran)
hostages of 1979.8 Even effective, multilateral sanctions
might trigger &an Iranian response against your soldiers in
Iraq.8
Syria
--------------
13. ( C ) Many insurgents were crossing into Iraq from
Syria, Dhahabi claimed. &Bashar is engaging in
brinksmanship, and thinks he can outlast U.S. pressure.8
Asked about Syrian opposition, Dhahabi said there is nothing,
externally or internally. Khaddam is discredited because of
his reputation for corruption and past association the
current regime. The Syrian regime,s pillars are &solid.8
Regional Intel Chiefs Consulting on Iraq
--------------
14. (S/NF) Dhahabi said a committee of intelligence service
chiefs from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Kuwait, Egypt and
the Emirates that had been meeting since November. It was
coordinating efforts to bolster moderate Iraqi Sunnis and
help them gain traction in the political process. Dhahabi
said the Saudis had been instrumental in organizing this
initiative.
GID Focused on Disrupting New Attacks Inside Jordan
-------------- --------------
15. (S/NF) Dhahabi said the GID had disrupted more than
eighty attempts by terrorists to attack GOJ and western
targets in Jordan; many of these attempts had been directed
against the GID building. He said the GOJ repeatedly foiled
attempts using Jordanian operatives, &so the terrorists have
switched to using Iraqis and Syrians,8 as in the cases of
the August 19 rocket attacks in Aqaba, and the November 9
Amman hotel bombings. Dhahabi expected Zarqawi and his ilk
to avoid future mass casualties among Jordanian civilians,
and to redouble their attempts to hit GOJ and western
targets.
Participants
--------------
16. (S/NF) Participants in the meeting, which began at 8:00
PM, included:
Jordan:
General Intelligence Director Muhammad Dhahabi
GID Iraqi affairs specialist Sa,di Za,tari
Royal Court Advisor Abdullah Woreikat
U.S.:
Senator John Kerry
Senate Foreign Relations Committee staffer Nancy Stetson
Military escort Maj. John Ulrich, USA
Ambassador
Amman SIMO Chief
PolCouns (notetaker)
17. (U) Codel Kerry cleared this message.
Hale