JORDANIANS WARN CODEL SHAYS OF CHAOS IN IRAQ IF

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 006432

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2016
TAGS: PREL IR IZ JO
SUBJECT: JORDANIANS WARN CODEL SHAYS OF CHAOS IN IRAQ IF
U.S. WITHDRAWS PREMATURELY


Classified By: Ambassador David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d

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Summary
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1. (C) Summary: During its brief holiday weekend stay in
Jordan August 20-21, Codel Shays met with Minister of
Political Development Sabri Rbeihat and Palace Advisor for
International Affairs Jafar Hassan, and lunched with a group
of Peace Corps volunteers in Madaba. In the meetings, the
Jordanian officials underscored moderate Arabs, feeling that
the conflict in Lebanon was a serious blow to those who
support peace with Israel. On Iraq, Rbeihat and Hassan
foresaw chaos and catastrophe in the event of an early U.S.
withdrawal. End summary.

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Minister of Political Development
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2. (C) In his meeting with Shays and party, Minister of
Political Development Sabri Rbeihat hailed Jordan,s
commitment to international efforts such as UN peacekeeping
missions, its positive role in regional issues and current
initiatives for political reform. Arabs have always looked
up to the morality of the U.S., said Rbeihat, but now many
are standing on the fence, not seeing any U.S. interest in
Arab causes. He pleaded for the U.S. to acknowledge the
desires of Arabs by addressing their core concern - the
Palestinian issue.


3. (C) Rbeihat said Iraq is at a critical juncture, and
could go either way. Responding to queries from the Codel,
he described his time with Iraqi PM Maliki during his recent
visit to Jordan. &Maliki has the stamina and credibility
with Iraqis to accomplish his reconciliation plan, IF he
reaches out to Sunnis,8 he said. Asked about PM Maliki,s
will to achieve reconciliation, Rbeihat hedged his answer and
then agreed; saying if he &receives the right messages,
assurances and support, yes.8 Rbeihat added that trying to
bring Iraq towards a secular society &without secular
partners8 was not the best choice. While Iraqis seemed to
be hedging their bets with regard to U.S. intentions, Rbeihat
predicted chaos and catastrophe in the region if the U.S.
was to withdraw prematurely. As for withdraw on a
&timeline,8 he suggested that Arabs would perceive this as
a spoiled intervention. Rather, the U.S. should stay the
course, based on current conditions that do require nation
building. The Codel challenged him, saying if this is true,
that message needs to be communicated publicly so the U.S.
and international community hear it.

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Palace Advisor for International Affairs
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4. (C) Jafar Hassan, Palace Advisor for International
Affairs (and former Jordanian DCM in Washington),opened his
session with the Codel with a bleak assessment of the current
state of U.S. interests in the Middle East. While arguing
that Hezbollah is a symptom, not a root cause, of regional
troubles, Hassan told the Codel that moderate states such as
Jordan are suffering and losing credibility; the vision of
peace with Israel is losing ground. The public sees forward
movement as result of violence and not peacemaking. Hassan
complained that moderate Arab states do not have deliverables
to support the peace process. Hassan feared Hezbollah,s
military engagement with Israel would eventually produce a
prisoner exchange, yet Israel continues to hold thirty
Jordanian prisoners despite the peace treaty between the two
countries.


5. (C) Hassan described Iran,s rise as a regional power,
highlighting that Qatar is moving closer to Iran to protect
its interests and Al-Jazeera,s transformation into a
mouthpiece for Nasrallah. Other countries will follow suit
if Iran continues its ascent. Hassan told the Codel that
Iran does not seek nuclear weapons to actually use them, but
rather to deploy their existence to expand its influence in
the region. Meanwhile, he said, Iran remains in a position
to harm U.S. interests in Iraq severely, although Iran likely
does not seek an outright civil war there given the
increasingly advantageous position of its allies in Iraq.


6. (C) When asked about the consequences of AMERICA leaving
Iraq to its own devices, Hassan replied that the Kurds will
secede, forcing the Turks to react somehow, and Iran will
seek to stabilize the south with an Iranian presence to
protect the Shi,a from the Sunnis. The Saudis and Qataris
would need to react to protect their interests and Jordan
would face a security issue on the Al-Anbar border. In

short, early American withdrawal would be bad for Iraq and
bad for Jordan. Hassan felt the better scenario was gradual
reconciliation following Maliki,s plan. Jordan would
continue to coordinate with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, working
to moderate Sunni factions and fight the extremists among
them.


7. (U) Codel Shays did not have the opportunity to review
this cable.

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Hale