JORDANIANS WARN CODEL SHAYS OF CHAOS IN IRAQ IF

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 006432 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2016 TAGS: PREL IR IZ JO SUBJECT: JORDANIANS WARN CODEL SHAYS OF CHAOS IN IRAQ IF U.S. WITHDRAWS PREMATURELY Classified By: Ambassador David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Summary: During its brief holiday weekend stay in Jordan August 20-21, Codel Shays met with Minister of Political Development Sabri Rbeihat and Palace Advisor for International Affairs Jafar Hassan, and lunched with a group of Peace Corps volunteers in Madaba. In the meetings, the Jordanian officials underscored moderate Arabs, feeling that the conflict in Lebanon was a serious blow to those who support peace with Israel. On Iraq, Rbeihat and Hassan foresaw chaos and catastrophe in the event of an early U.S. withdrawal. End summary. -------------- Minister of Political Development -------------- ¶2. (C) In his meeting with Shays and party, Minister of Political Development Sabri Rbeihat hailed Jordan,s commitment to international efforts such as UN peacekeeping missions, its positive role in regional issues and current initiatives for political reform. Arabs have always looked up to the morality of the U.S., said Rbeihat, but now many are standing on the fence, not seeing any U.S. interest in Arab causes. He pleaded for the U.S. to acknowledge the desires of Arabs by addressing their core concern - the Palestinian issue. ¶3. (C) Rbeihat said Iraq is at a critical juncture, and could go either way. Responding to queries from the Codel, he described his time with Iraqi PM Maliki during his recent visit to Jordan. &Maliki has the stamina and credibility with Iraqis to accomplish his reconciliation plan, IF he reaches out to Sunnis,8 he said. Asked about PM Maliki,s will to achieve reconciliation, Rbeihat hedged his answer and then agreed; saying if he &receives the right messages, assurances and support, yes.8 Rbeihat added that trying to bring Iraq towards a secular society &without secular partners8 was not the best choice. While Iraqis seemed to be hedging their bets with regard to U.S. intentions, Rbeihat predicted chaos and catastrophe in the region if the U.S. was to withdraw prematurely. As for withdraw on a &timeline,8 he suggested that Arabs would perceive this as a spoiled intervention. Rather, the U.S. should stay the course, based on current conditions that do require nation building. The Codel challenged him, saying if this is true, that message needs to be communicated publicly so the U.S. and international community hear it. -------------- Palace Advisor for International Affairs -------------- ¶4. (C) Jafar Hassan, Palace Advisor for International Affairs (and former Jordanian DCM in Washington),opened his session with the Codel with a bleak assessment of the current state of U.S. interests in the Middle East. While arguing that Hezbollah is a symptom, not a root cause, of regional troubles, Hassan told the Codel that moderate states such as Jordan are suffering and losing credibility; the vision of peace with Israel is losing ground. The public sees forward movement as result of violence and not peacemaking. Hassan complained that moderate Arab states do not have deliverables to support the peace process. Hassan feared Hezbollah,s military engagement with Israel would eventually produce a prisoner exchange, yet Israel continues to hold thirty Jordanian prisoners despite the peace treaty between the two countries. ¶5. (C) Hassan described Iran,s rise as a regional power, highlighting that Qatar is moving closer to Iran to protect its interests and Al-Jazeera,s transformation into a mouthpiece for Nasrallah. Other countries will follow suit if Iran continues its ascent. Hassan told the Codel that Iran does not seek nuclear weapons to actually use them, but rather to deploy their existence to expand its influence in the region. Meanwhile, he said, Iran remains in a position to harm U.S. interests in Iraq severely, although Iran likely does not seek an outright civil war there given the increasingly advantageous position of its allies in Iraq. ¶6. (C) When asked about the consequences of America leaving Iraq to its own devices, Hassan replied that the Kurds will secede, forcing the Turks to react somehow, and Iran will seek to stabilize the south with an Iranian presence to protect the Shi,a from the Sunnis. The Saudis and Qataris would need to react to protect their interests and Jordan would face a security issue on the Al-Anbar border. In short, early American withdrawal would be bad for Iraq and bad for Jordan. Hassan felt the better scenario was gradual reconciliation following Maliki,s plan. Jordan would continue to coordinate with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, working to moderate Sunni factions and fight the extremists among them. ¶7. (U) Codel Shays did not have the opportunity to review this cable. Visit Amman's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/ Hale