MEDIA REACTION ON LEBANON

UNCLAS AMMAN 005428 SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/ARN, NEA/PA, NEA/AIA, INR/NESA, R/MR, I/GNEA, B/BXN, B/BRN, NEA/PPD, NEA/IPA FOR ALTERMAN USAID/ANE/MEA LONDON FOR TSOU SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KMDR JO SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION ON LEBANON Editorial Commentary -- "A severe error of calculation" Daily columnist Fahd Fanek writes on the back-page of semi-official, influential Arabic daily Al-Rai (07/19): "Israel cannot coexist with Hizbollah and it had a ready-made plan to eliminate Hizbollah awaiting the right moment, and Hizbollah volunteered and provided Israel with this opportunity when it attacked an Israeli military unit, killed eight soldiers and captured two others. In itself, Hizbollah's operation is a first-class military accomplishment, but those who made the decision did not take the potential repercussions into consideration. They ought to have realized that Israel will not kneel before them asking for a ceasefire and beginning negotiations on prisoners' exchange, but rather will take the opportunity to eliminate Hizbollah by destroying Lebanon and convincing the Lebanese government and people that Hizbollah's presence on the borders with Israel entails a huge price that Lebanon cannot afford to pay.... Hizbollah lost the justification of its existence as a resistance organization the minute Israel withdrew from South Lebanon, but it remained there, a state within a state, on the pretext of Shab'a.... It is time for Hizbollah to change from being Iran's military arm in Lebanon to become a Lebanese political party functioning under the umbrella of the sovereign state." -- "Will Condoleezza Rice come to the region and when?" Columnist Mohammad Kharroub writes on the op-ed page of semi-official, influential Arabic daily Al-Rai (07/19): "U.S. President George Bush's hint that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice 'might' play a bigger role in the search for a solution to the current crisis in the region suggests that ... Washington is not in a hurry and is ready to give Israel sufficient time to complete its mission.... We are facing a decisive week ahead where not only the Israeli aggressive war on Lebanon is going to be decided but also the political and diplomatic arena whose threads are beginning to gather in Washington's hand. We must not ignore the latter's fear of a destructive regional war that shuffles the cards and eliminates many of the current formulas and alliances leading to the reinvention of a new Middle East that replaces the Greater Middle East that the Bush administration had wanted and still wants to establish. Does Washington fear Iran's entry into the new equation or is the time not right for dragging it into battle....? If Rice comes to the region, her intention will not be put out the fire that Israel ignited in Lebanon, but rather to contain a fire that, if it erupts, will not serve U.S. interests, at least at the time being." -- "Syria before a strategic option" Columnist Nahed Hattar writes on the back-page of independent, mass-appeal Arabic daily Al-Arab Al-Yawm (07/19): "The ongoing war between Hizbollah and Israel seems to be unsolvable. Any backtracking on the part of Hizbollah from the minimum requirements, namely halting the Israeli aggression and beginning prisoners exchange negotiations, will mean the beginning of the end for Hizbollah on the Lebanese local front.... Hizbollah's battle then is a bone-breaking battle on the Lebanese, regional and international levels. On the other hand, Israel - and the United States - knows that despite the destruction its military machine inflicted on Lebanon, a ceasefire without conditions means complete defeat for the Israeli military and the beginning of the end for the American-Israeli era in the entire region. That is why the American-Israeli alliance is going to wage the battle of Lebanon's destruction to the very end, while trying to avoid accumulated defeats in Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Iraq and Iran.... The battle of the American-Israeli alliance then is also a bone-breaking battle on the Lebanese, Syrian, Palestinian, Iraqi and Iranian fronts." HALE