HAMAS CONSPIRACIES - MANY AREN'T BUYING IT

S E C R E T AMMAN 003507

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV PTER KISL KPAL JO
SUBJECT: HAMAS CONSPIRACIES - MANY AREN'T BUYING IT

REF: A. AMMAN 3345


B. AMMAN 3325

C. AMMAN 2906

Classified By: Ambassador David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Many Jordanians are unconvinced by the
GOJ's public charges that Hamas cached weapons and sent
terrorists to Jordan with the goal of targeting the GOJ.
Local media, however, which initially expressed some
skepticism toward the GOJ's version, is now largely backing
the government. End summary.


2. (SBU) Many of post's contacts report that most Jordanians
remain unconvinced by the GOJ's announcements over the past
month that it has discovered Hamas arms and detained Hamas
conspirators in Jordan. Many are especially skeptical toward
the GOJ's assertions that Hamas was planning attacks against
the GOJ.


3. (C) Member of Parliament Suleiman Abu Ghaith (West
Banker, Madaba) told poloff that he and a delegation of
twenty other pro-government MPs complained to Prime Minister
Marouf Bakheet that most of their constituents did not
believe the GOJ when it announced April 18 that it had
cancelled the visit of Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister
Zahar because of the discovery of a Hamas arms cache in
Jordan (ref C). Abu Ghaith, a pious Muslim who heartily
dislikes both Hamas and Jordan's political Islamists,
expressed concern to poloff that GOJ handling of this episode
may actually have increased sympathy for Hamas in Jordan.


4. (C) Hamadeh Fara,neh, a Palestinian-Jordanian columnist
and think-tank director, said most people believe the GOJ
&reached into a drawer and found some weapons8 in order to
provide a pretext for the cancellation of Zahar's visit.
Many would have believed that Hamas had been smuggling arms
through Jordan into the West Bank, he said. But few were
ready to buy the GOJ's assertions that Hamas was targeting
Jordan. Fara,neh, a leftist who has written critically
about the resurgence of Islam in Jordan, expressed regret
that the GOJ &did not produce a better play.8


5. (C) Muhammad Kheir Mustafa, a liberal East Banker
professor at the University of Jordan, told pol FSN that none
of his students or colleagues believed the weapons caches
were intended for use against Jordan. &Who would believe
such a stupid story?8 he exclaimed. Mustafa noted that
skepticism toward the official account crossed East Bank/West
Bank lines.


6. (C) Jamal Tahat, another East Banker professor, told
polcouns that his friend Nabil Kofahi, the communications
director of Jordan's Islamic Action Front, was worried that
the GOJ had fabricated the weapons finds in order to prepare
the ground for a &confrontation8 between the GOJ and the
Front.


7. (C) The Jordanian media, after a few skeptical opinion
columns following the GOJ's April 18 announcement on the
first arms cache (ref C),have moderated their tone.
Throughout, news stories have been straightforward reports of
GOJ statements and accusations, and of Hamas's rejection of
the accusations. Particularly since Hamas's refusal to
participate in joint GOJ-Palestinian talks on the issue and
since the televised confessions May 11 of three of the
accused (ref A),however, commentary in the media has firmly
placed Jordanian national security as a non-negotiable issue.
While still advocating a full, complete, and transparent GOJ
investigation into the matter in order to establish whether
Hamas or some unnamed third party was responsible for the
weapons smuggling, commentators are also calling for more
candor and a more cooperative attitude from Hamas.
Ultimately, commentators agree that the issue of Jordanian
national security trumps all other issues. This may be a
manifestation of Jordanian patriotism, or it may be because
this affair has now clearly become a high-profile GOJ
national security matter in which public criticism would
cross red lines.


8. (C) Comment: Senior GOJ officials, including spokesman
Nasser Judeh, acknowledged to Ambassador shortly after the
April 18 revelation that the GOJ needed to be more
convincing, and this conclusion led to the GOJ's decision to
televise the May 11 confessions of three Hamas plotters. Abu
Mazen's public endorsement shortly afterward of the GOJ
version of events further bolstered the case. However, it
appears that the relatively weak evidence the GOJ presented
April 18 pushed public opinion over into its skeptical
default setting, and the GOJ is having a hard time pushing it
back. Palace officials nonetheless identify a turn of public
opinion in their favor this week.
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