FIRST IMPRESSIONS OF JORDAN'S NEW CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 000239 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2021 TAGS: PGOV ECON PREL EFIN KISL PINR JO SUBJECT: FIRST IMPRESSIONS OF JORDAN'S NEW CABINET REF: A. 05 AMMAN 9387 ¶B. 05 AMMAN 9954 ¶C. 05 AMMAN 9201 ¶D. 05 AMMAN 9476 Classified By: AMB. DAVID HALE, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: King Abdullah II has tasked Jordan's new government with three broad goals: --boosting security (but maintaining civil rights) in the wake of the November 9 bombings, --restoring momentum to economic and especially political reforms, and --attending to poverty alleviation and unemployment relief. The new team must work with the same Parliament that hindered progress on a range of issues, especially reforms, promoted by a succession of governments in the past year. Chastened by the King's now well-known consideration to dissolve the parliament, and by opinion polls reflecting a low public regard for the House, MPs appear to be in a cooperative mood for now. A reassuring Prime Minister and a reform team that does not include polarizing personalities have set a positive tone. As MPs examine an austerity budget and a reformed election law that, if adopted, will deal many of them out of office, this honeymoon may be shortlived. Several of the new Ministers see themselves as charged with confronting extremism within the framework of King Abdullah's Amman Message to promote moderate Islam. The Foreign Ministry is headed by an experienced diplomat who held the post three times previously, bringing stability and expertise to a ministry whose last two ministers had their drawbacks. On the economic side, the government has retained strong members from the previous government's economic team, with a potentially important addition in the person of a Deputy PM/Finance Minister to head the group. An effective, well-informed, and urbane government spokesman has been selected, filling a gap in the regime's communication strategy. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) The new Prime Minister, Marouf Bakhit, was largely unknown outside elite circles before his appointment. Since then, his public appearances and interaction with political constituencies have had a favorable impact in the country. Many find his approach, background, and personality reassuring. His military credentials and East Banker origins make it easier for him to advocate reforms, to which he is committed, with those critical constituencies. His evident incorruptibility (e.g., modest private home and car) quickly became known in a town where access to power typically translates into a large villa and a fleet of Mercedes cars. His cabinet colleagues appreciate a boss who listens and conducts meetings and the government's business crisply, in contrast to his two predecessors. In private, he has expressed pleasure at his ability to develop cordial relations with opposition elements in parliament, including the Islamic Action Front. He intends to use those good relations to push through a difficult budget, political parties and electoral reform bills, and a package of security legislation in the wake of the November bombing ) all before parliament's current session ends in March. He has already achieved two of the government's goals with Parliament's ratification of the ICC and article 98 agreements. Bakhit also intends to conduct spring municipal elections based on a new law which would make appointive positions on the municipal councils subject to election. The most controversial part of this ambitious agenda will be the elections law. It will be opposed by the many MPs who will feel threatened by a law designed to create a more representative lower house, but Bakhit wants to take his best stab at winning parliamentary support. If the bill is voted down, the King is likely to consider again his constitutional prerogative of dissolving parliament and, after a short campaign season, holding elections based on a temporary law. ¶3. (C) A goal of the cabinet is to engage in an ideological combat against radical Islam in Jordan. New ministers of Interior, Awqaf and Culture told Ambassador this was a top priority for their ministries, each in different ways. Interior's Eid Fayez is a self-professed liberal. He is focused on balancing increased security against the need to preserve civil and human rights. He wants people to feel safe without feeling they are being monitored. At Awqaf (Islamic Affairs),Fattah Salah was selected to promote the King's vision to engage moderate Muslims and crack down on hard-liners. Like the King and Fariz, Salah is concerned that human rights be respected, but is adamant that what he calls takfiri "half-wits" who condone terrorism and extremism - "will be hit with an iron fist". Taking a much tougher stance than his predecessor (who the King privately concluded was sympathetic to takfiri ideology),Salah is already making efforts to engage moderate scholars and Imams, and has a comprehensive plan to encourage tolerance through Ministry-sponsored programs (septel). At Culture, Adel Tweisi is another of the new team who views one of his key roles as fighting radical Islam. He told the Ambassador about his desire to promote "real Islam." He asserted that when the takfiri radicals call for the liberation of Iraq and Palestine, they merely want to impose their own ideologies. The Minister hopes to use the resources of his Ministry, by producing brochures and holding symposia folkloric cultural activities, to provide ways for youth to be occupied and serve as a counterweight to the takfiri world view. -------------- STRONG ECONOMIC TEAM RETURNS -------------- ¶4. (C) The new cabinet retains the strong economic bench, largely drawn from the private sector, inherited from the previous government. The principal change is designed to give the economic team the leadership it lacked in the Badran government in the person of a single Deputy Prime Minister, Ziad Fariz. He also serves as the Finance Minister. Fariz has a strong background in economics and finance, having run a successful Jordanian bank, and earlier served as both Planning Minister and Governor of the Central Bank. He represents an older generation than most of his fellow ministers on the economic side, and has left an initial impression with some of being too wedded to outdated concepts and the status quo. However, we have already seen a favorable evolution in his thinking on such matters as the necessity of adopting a new anti-money laundering bill. ¶5. (C) Fariz stresses the need for a 'prudent' budget and has not made major changes to the draft of his predecessor, which proposed controls on fiscal spending. Fariz stressed to the Ambassador that he sees the budget deficit as still too high, and hopes to move the government's tax law through Parliament; failure to do so would "be a problem," resulting in a JD 50-55 million (USD 70-77 million) hit to the budget. NOTE: The tax law was rejected by the lower house, but will become a temporary law if the upper house does not reject it. In an aside, Fariz noted he prefers the law pass Parliament. He does not want the government to set aside the democratic process, and insisted that the process of getting the law passed must be transparent. Many of his cabinet colleagues do not support the bill, which was amended at the eleventh hour by the former Finance Minister without adequate cabinet consultation. Even some of the King's most loyal supporters in the upper house are considering rejection of the tax law. END NOTE. ¶6. (C) Fariz is also focused on devising a system for advance notice of Finance Ministry bond issuances, to enhance coordination with the Central Bank of Jordan. Fariz faces challenges. His dual role ) finance minister and head of the economic team ) gives him an edge over the traditionally powerful planning minister, but he has not yet shown enthusiastic commitment to the full range of economic and social reforms that we and Jordan's leadership seek. He must also take a leadership role in promoting the government's legislative reform agenda with the Parliament. The difficulty with the Tax Law seems to indicate a very short honeymoon on an important economic issue. -------------- SURE HAND AT FOREIGN MINISTRY -------------- ¶7. (C) Abdelelah Al-Khatib is known to many in Washington from his previous three stints as Foreign Minister, tour at the Jordanian Embassy there, and work on the Jordan peace team in the 1990s. As in the past, Khatib has gone out of his way to establish a close relationship with the Embassy. He is successfully promoting such difficult issues as article 98 ratification, anathema to such predecessors as Marwan al-Muasher. Unlike his two predecessors, he both understands the importance of our common reform agenda for Jordan and seeks to participate actively in shaping it. He also seeks an early opportunity to establish a relationship with the Secretary. He is a thoughtful and constructive influence on SIPDIS the key regional challenges of Iraq, Iran, Syria, and the Israel-Palestinian peace process. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Like all of Jordan's recent governments, this government represents the key pillars of King Abdullah's support in Jordan. A common theme among several Ministers in their initial interactions with Post was their understanding that they are charged with counteracting extremist Islamists in Jordan, whether directly through the Ministry of Interior, or indirectly, through the Ministries of Awqaf and Culture. This charge was stated explicitly by the King in his message to the new government, but it also parallels the King's Amman Message promoting moderate Islam. ¶9. (C) What is also striking about this government is the strength of the new economic team. Extensive and successful private sector experience is the norm. Based on the Ambassador's initial courtesy calls on them, these Ministers appear eager to move ahead on economic reforms, clearly understanding that they must show quick results or face the fate of earlier governments. The new economic team is very knowledgeable about the history and breadth of U.S. assistance to Jordan, expressing deep appreciation for what the U.S. has done in the past and looking forward to the potential presented by further U.S. help. The Embassy expects this will be an economic team with which it can work well with. ¶10. (C) Like its predecessor, this government will have to work with a difficult Parliament. The Chamber of Deputies has already signaled that it is still asserting itself, by opposing a new tax law proposed by the government (ref B). Provided this Parliament remains in place, the true test of this new government will be its ability to move its diverse reform agenda through this legislature. Hale