NEW ISLAMIC ACTION FRONT LEADER LINKED TO HAMAS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 002114 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2016 TAGS: PGOV KISL KPAL PINR JO SUBJECT: NEW ISLAMIC ACTION FRONT LEADER LINKED TO HAMAS? REF: A. AMMAN 1692 ¶B. AMMAN 1177 Classified By: Ambassador David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b and d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Jordan's Islamic Action Front (IAF) has elected as its new secretary general a Palestinian-Jordanian, apparently over the objections of some elements of the East Bank establishment in the Islamic Movement and in the GOJ. However, real control over the movement rests with the newly elected, East Bank moderate leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, to which the IAF answers. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The Islamic Action Front's newly-chosen Shura council completed March 17 closed-door polling for the party's new leadership. It was announced that the Council had elected Zaki Sa,ed Bani Irsheid, unopposed, as the new Secretary General of the party. A new executive board was chosen as well (septel.) ¶3. (C) The Islamic Action Front is the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Front traditionally follows the Brotherhood's lead, and the Brotherhood's leadership indirectly selects the Front's leaders. In line with this practice, in January the Brotherhood nominated Bani Irsheid, a West Banker, to succeed Hamzeh Mansour, another West Banker. Did the Establishment's Efforts Backfire? -------------- ¶4. (C) However, after the Hamas electoral victory of January 25, the East Bank establishment in the GOJ and in Jordan's Islamic movement appears to have started having second thoughts about leaving the Front's leadership job in the hands of Palestinian-Jordanians. In early March a rare front page editorial in a major government-controlled newspaper denounced unnamed Islamist politicians with &ties8 to Hamas, a clear shot at Bani Irsheid. Post contacts close to the Brotherhood's East Bank establishment predicted Bani Irsheid would withdraw. Some GOJ contacts made similar predictions. ¶5. (C) Bani Irsheid,s election is thus a puzzle. Did the East Bank establishment, both inside the Brotherhood and inside the GOJ, try and fail to derail Bani Irsheid,s candidacy? Was the campaign against Bani Irsheid a signal to Palestinian-Jordanians in the Islamist movement? Or did the powers that be decide not to interfere with the movement's traditional succession process? ¶6. (C) The consensus taking shape among post's contacts is that many inside the movement perceived an official GOJ campaign against Bani Irsheid. As a result, most of the rank-and-file - even those who were not enthusiastic about him - rallied around Bani Irrsheid over the objections of their leaders, in order to demonstrate resistance to GOJ attempts at manipulation of the Front's internal politics. ¶7. (C) Two contacts close to the Brotherhood claim Bani Irsheid,s election is already causing division inside the movement. Member of Parliament Suleiman Abu Ghaith claims Bani Irsheid is "too close to Hamas", and that East Bank members of the Brotherhood are upset at his election. Ibrahim Gharaibeh, a political columnist and member of the movement whose brother is a member of the new IAF Shura Council, claims that only one other member of Front's newly-elected seven-man executive board is prepared to &work with8 Bani Irsheid. GID Chief Dhahabi - somtimes prone to accusation - flatly termed Bani Irsheid as a Hamas supporter in a recent meeting with General Dayton. ¶8. (C) Comment: Before the Hamas victory, we heard few complaints about Bani Irsheid. His nomination by the Brotherhood's East Bank establishment suggests that he was seen, at least before the Hamas victory, as a consensus figure. After the January 25 political upheaval in the West Bank and Gaza, however, some East Bankers inside and outside the movement began indiscriminately to label all Palestinian-Jordanian Islamists as &Hamas members.8 That there is a Hamas presence inside Jordan's Islamist movement seems clear, but we suspect that many are now being tarred with the Hamas brush merely because of their ethnic origin, rather than any because of any real link with the Hamas organization across the River Jordan. ¶9. (C) Comment continued: Whatever his real political colors, Bani Irsheid has been elected to a position that was traditionally subordinate to the Muslim Brotherhood's leadership. If the movement's history is any guide, the Muslim Brotherhood's new Controller General, Salem Al-Falahat, an East Banker moderate, will retain ultimate control. We still expect the Brotherhood and Front to raise the volume of its public criticism of some GOJ policies. If there is strife inside the movement between supporters and opponents of Bani Irsheid, the factions may strive to out-do each other with their anti-U.S. and anti-Israel rhetoric. HALE