JORDAN LOOKS TO NEIGHBORS FOR HELP WITH WATER

UNCLAS AMMAN 002108 SIPDIS INTERIOR FOR INTERNATIONAL/SENHADJI SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV EAGR PREL PGOV SY IS JO SUBJECT: JORDAN LOOKS TO NEIGHBORS FOR HELP WITH WATER SHORTAGE REF: 05 AMMAN 9826 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: With rainfall at 65% of the long-term average for this time of year, and reservoirs at 54% of capacity, Jordan is seeking help from Israel and Syria to cover an emerging water supply gap. Israel has been helpful, Syria reluctant. Reftel Red-Dead feasibility study should start within two months, and the Disi project - which may yield Jordan 100 million cubic meters of water per year - should start construction by the beginning of 2007, according to GOJ officials. Desalination of brackish groundwater is unlikely to be a major new water source. (USAID Zara Main project is anticipated to provide something like 40 MCM/year.) The GOJ also is trying to protect existing surface and groundwater resources. The anticipated water shortage this year has already led to an announcement that Jordan Valley farmers will not receive a summer water supply. The shortages - politically sensitive in this water deprived country - bring a further challenge to a year complicated by reduced foreign assistance, elimination of oil subsidies, planned advancement of political reforms, and a difficult regional environment. End summary. -------------- The Players -------------- ¶2. (U) BACKGROUND NOTE: In Jordan's most recent cabinet change in November 2005, then-Jordan Valley Authority (JVA) Secretary General Zafer Alem was appointed Minister of Water SIPDIS and Irrigation. Sa'ad Al-Bakri stayed on as the Secretary General in the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI). Munther Khleifat remained as Secretary General of the Water Authority of Jordan (WAJ). JVA Deputy Secretary General Musa Jamani was appointed as the JVA's Acting Secretary General and confirmed on March 8 as Secretary General. ¶3. (U) Mohammed El-Momani has replaced Fayez Bataineh as MWI Assistant Secretary General for Technical Affairs, and will represent Jordan in regional fora such as the EXACT water resources working group. Momani brings a strong technical background; previously he has worked as the Acting Assistant SecGen for Water Resources in the Water Authority of Jordan (WAJ),and as Director of Water Resource Studies. END BACKGROUND NOTE. -------------- The Problem - Low Rains, Low Reservoirs The Solution? Turn to Israel and Syria �0A; -------------- ¶4. (U) Minister of Water and Irrigation Zafer Alem told DCM on March 5 that with rainfall at 65% of normal and reservoirs at only 54% of capacity, he has discussed ways to relieve Jordan's water crunch with both Syria and Israel. MWI SecGen Sa'ad Al-Bakri and Jordan Valley Authority SecGen Musa Jamani confirmed these contacts to ESTH Officer and FSN on March 9. Bakri said that Jordan's municipalities consume about 260 million cubic meters (MCM) of water per year (roughly 37 gallons per person per day for all uses),a figure that is limited by available supply. (Meteorology Department reports rain since January 1 is 65% of the average annual level). ¶5. (SBU) Minister Alem said that he had seen Israeli Water Commissioner Shimon Tal recently, and had told Tal that Jordan could not "pay" the full 20 MCM that it "owes" Israel annually under Annex Two of the Israel Jordan-Peace treaty this year. (Note: In the treaty, Jordan and Israel agreed to swap 20 MCM per year, with Israel providing this amount to Jordan in the summer and Jordan "repaying" it in the winter. End note.) According to Alem, Tal accepted the news with good grace, and implied that Jordan could make up the amount at some later point. Alem, SecGen Bakri and JVA SecGen Jamani all noted the cordial and cooperative working relationship on water that Jordan has with Israel. -------------- Syria Not Sticking to Its Deals -------------- ¶6. (SBU) GOJ water officials contrast their good relationship with Israel to the more troubled relationship with Syria on water issues. In the GOJ's view, Jordan and Syria have agreed that the latter will be limited to 15 dams on the Yarmouk watershed. Syria now has 27 dams, according to Minister Alem. In addition to having "unapproved" dams, Syria is drawing water directly from the Yarmouk for irrigation, say Jordanian water officials. ESTH Officer saw pumps and pipelines on the Syrian side of the Yarmouk during a June 2005 visit to the area with then-OES A/S Turner. According to the Jordanians, excess and unapproved offtake of Yarmouk water by the Syrians is resulting in less water coming into Jordan. Jamani said that the Yarmouk's average summertime (dry season) flow was 6 cubic meters per second, but the Yarmouk's flow this winter in the wet season is less that 3 cubic meters per second. ¶7. (SBU) Minister Alem told DCM that he has had several discussions with Syrian Irrigation Minister Nadir Al-Buni about reducing Syrian offtake from the Yarmouk, and had gotten some support but no solid commitments. SecGen Bakri characterized the Yarmouk as a "disaster" (for Jordan),and told ESTH Officer that the Syrians had made a general commitment to letting more water stay in the Yarmouk but had not provided details on quantity. Bakri added that Jordan's ambassador in Damascus had called that very morning (March 9) to say that the Syrians had committed to increasing the flow of the Yarmouk, but still had not specified a quantity. -------------- -------------- Unity Dam on Yarmouk Late Because of Geological Faults -------------- -------------- ¶8. (U) Jordan Valley Authority (JVA) SecGen Jamani told ESTHOff that the Wihdeh (Unity) Dam on the Yarmouk is behind schedule because of geological problems discovered on the right embankment. The dam was supposed to start collecting water this winter, but the JVA found cracks in the rock that need to be excavated and grouted. He expects the dam to be ready in September 2006 and to start collecting water by the end of 2006. -------------- Red-Dead Study to Start in April or May -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Jamani emphasized to ESTH Officer the importance of the Red Sea-to-Dead Sea water conveyance in Jordan's long- term water planning. He expects the feasibility study to start within one or two months. The Ministry is looking for companies and consultants who can undertake the study, and is preparing a small office to supervise the work. Jamani said the World Bank has $10 million in hand from donors out of the total expected cost for the feasibility study of $15 million, and that the parties (Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority) and the World Bank have agreed that this is enough to start the feasibility study. MWI SecGen Bakri commented that in his opinion, the World Bank was delaying the feasibility study because of uncertainties related to the emergence of Hamas in the Palestinian Authority. -------------- Disi Project to Be Tendered Soon on BOT Basis -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Aside from the Red-Dead, Jordan's other big water infrastructure project is the Disi project to pump groundwater from the Disi aquifer near the Saudi border and pipe it up to Amman. Bakri said that the "Expression of Commercial Interest" for the on-again/off-again project will be announced within a few days, and that the project will be done on a build-operate-transfer (BOT) basis. The Disi project was tendered previously, but bids were hundreds of millions of dollars higher than expected, and the tender was cancelled. Bakri expects the tender process to be completed within 4-6 months, and for construction to begin by early ¶2007. The companies involved will put together the financing and technical expertise, and the Ministry will simply buy the water. MWI expects the Disi project to provide 100 MCM per year, and MWI hopes to pay the winning company or consortium roughly 85 cents per cubic meter. The previous tenders would have cost $1.23 per cubic meter. Another large-scale water project, USAID's Zara Ma'in project, will provide 40 MCM per year beginning in July ¶2006. -------------- -------------- Brackish Groundwater Desalination No Panacea to MWI -------------- -------------- ¶11. (U) In addition to the Red-Dead and Disi projects, desalination of brackish groundwater is another possible water source. The GOJ has built several brackish water desalination plants. ECON and ESTH staff visited one such reverse osmosis plant in the Jordan Valley near Deir Allah and were escorted by the president of the firm that built the plant. Aqua Treat President Tarek Abu Dehays said the plant produces about 20-40 thousand cubic meters a day, depending on the supply of brackish water, at a cost of about 17 cents per cubic meter. At a separate MWI meeting that took place days after the site visit, MWI SecGen Bakri told ESTH staff that the plant's cost (about $5 million) was quite low given its capacity. Despite this low cost, Bakri said he does not expect groundwater desalination plants to become widespread, although there may be saline groundwater near Zara Ma'in that could be desalinated and injected into the pipe. The Zara Ma'in pipe was purposely designed with excess capacity to handle this type of additional flow with little additional capital cost. Bakri believes there might be an additional 20 MCM of drinkable water from desalination in the Jordan Valley, but he noted the environmental impact and the problems of managing the brine. ¶12. (U) Bakri floated an idea of having Jordan pay operations and maintenance costs (he did not discuss capital costs - presumably those would be paid by a donor country) for an Israeli-owned desalination plant on the Mediterranean to produce 50 MCM per year for use in Israel. In return, Jordan would receive 50 MCM of water per year from Lake Kinneret. Bakri thinks this is a good deal for Israel because the desalinated water would be high quality and available on the coastal plain where it is needed. COMMENT: Post defers to Embassy Tel Aviv on whether this would be politically, technically and financially feasible from the Israeli perspective. At first blush, this idea seems unlikely to reach fruition. END COMMENT. -------------- -------------- Technical Chief Emphasizes Coordination, Pollution Prevention -------------- -------------- ¶13. (U) The GOJ is not completely focused on simply developing new water sources, however. There have been and continue to be efforts within the GOJ to protect and manage existing resources. During an introductory call on February 13, Assistant SecGen for Technical Affairs Mohammed El- Momani emphasized multi-sectoral coordination on water between the government, business, NGOs and donors, and upgrading wastewater treatment and pollution prevention to protect Jordan's existing freshwater resources. He said he would focus monitoring activities on wells near industrial and agricultural activity. Agriculture is the logical place to seek reduction. The Ministries of Water and Agriculture need to improve coordination on an integrated strategy to protect both soil and water resources. Momani also cited the need to better control illegal well drilling and groundwater pumping. Noting that Jordan enacted a groundwater law in 2002, he said the issue is now enforcement. Jordan also needs a strategy to minimize "mining" (unsustainable pumping) of groundwater. A recent law to require payment for irrigation water over 150,000 cubic meters a year created "a huge conflict," he said. ¶14. (SBU) Comment: Jordan is pinning its longer-term hopes on the two large-scale water projects, Red-Dead and Disi, to "fix" its water supply problems. The capital costs for these projects are approximately US$5 billion and US$750 million, respectively. With agriculture consuming two thirds of Jordan's water and producing only 5-7% of GDP, reallocation and demand-side management are better solutions. In the shorter term, with only a few weeks of potential rainy season left this year, Jordan is likely to face a very dry summer. It's conceivable that surface-water supplies, which largely go to agriculture, will be most affected. HALE