SOME JORDANIAN VIEWS ON IRAN'S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 001735 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2015 TAGS: PREL MNUC IR JO SUBJECT: SOME JORDANIAN VIEWS ON IRAN'S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS Classified By: CDA DANIEL RUBINSTEIN FOR REASONS 1.4 (b and d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The GOJ shares U.S. concerns about Iran,s nuclear ambitions, but also fears a U.S.-Iran crisis that adds to regional tensions. Jordan,s political class and the popular press, however, often link the Iran nuclear issue to complaints about the Israeli nuclear program. END SUMMARY. -------------- GOJ VIEWS -------------- ¶2. (C) GOJ officials in conversations with U.S. officials make clear that Jordan is deeply concerned at the prospect of further Iranian steps toward developing nuclear weapons. They view Iran,s nuclear policy as provocative, likely to elicit an Israeli or U.S. response, and destabilizing to the region. NOTE: They also increasingly cite Iranian behavior -- outside the nuclear issue -- as negatively impacting many of the region,s key security challenges, be it in gaining stability in Iraq, persuading the SARG to change its behavior, assisting Lebanon,s quest for true independence, or countering terrorist activity in the Israeli-Palestinian arena. END NOTE. Jamal al-Shamayleh, Deputy Chief of the Foreign Ministry,s International Organizations Department, expressed concern that increased tensions between Iran and Israel, or the U.S., would compound the region,s many problems. He said that an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel would be devastating for Jordan and also feared a "Chernobyl-like" release of radiation should Israel or the U.S. choose to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. ¶3. (C) Discussing Iran with poloff, Dr. Hassan al-Salah, head of the Ministry of the Interior,s Prohibition of Chemical Weapons Department, accused the USG of maintaining a double standard, citing perceived U.S. acquiescence to Israel,s purported nuclear arsenal. He urged the U.S. to aim for a nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons-free zone in the Middle East. NOTE: King Abdullah has also publicly endorsed calls for a nuclear and WMD-free zone in the region. END NOTE. -------------- PRIVATE OPINIONS -------------- ¶4. (C) MP Suleiman Abu Ghaith (West Banker, Madaba) told poloff that Iran has the right to pursue a peaceful nuclear power program. However, he added that he "didn't trust" the Iranians, and believed their nuclear work should be closely monitored by the international community. Adamant that "dialogue is the best way to solve the issue," he claimed that Iran might reject all international monitoring if antagonized too much, which would make matters worse." Abu Ghaith also linked the Iran nuclear issue to Israel, saying that "by going after Iran and not doing anything about Israel's nuclear arsenal, the U.S. is acting inconsistently. This severely weakens its position on Iran in the Arab and Muslim world." Abu Ghaith,s comments were echoed by several other contacts. -------------- THE PRESS -------------- ¶5. (U) The Jordanian press beats the "double standard" drum with particular enthusiasm. For example, a columnist for widely circulated left-leaning Arabic daily Al-Arab Al-Yawm wrote that Washington has to come up with a "real explanation" for its "double standard schizophrenia." If the U.S embarks on a "new military adventure with encouragement from Israel", he predicted, Iran would call on its clients in Iraq to attack U.S forces there. Chief Editor Taher Udwan of Al-Arab Al-Yawm claimed in a recent column that the U.S. was manufacturing a crisis "under the illusion that Iran is seeking to own nuclear weapons," and warned that a U.S. military escapade against Iran would further ignite the region. He continued that the Iranian nuclear issue cannot be resolved with a pre-emptive strike or with an economic embargo, but with the West "returning to its senses and stopping their double standards policy." ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Post's contacts often cite the "double standard policy"; however, widespread distrust of Iranian intentions in the region, and suspicions of Shia in general, outweigh these double standard concerns. Most Jordanians, when pressed, agree that a nuclear Iran is not in their interest. END COMMENT. RUBINSTEIN