KAZAKHSTAN: BAYMENOV LOOKS TOWARD ASTANA

UNCLAS ALMATY 000079 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CACEN (JMUDGE) SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM KZ POLITICAL SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: BAYMENOV LOOKS TOWARD ASTANA ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Unsuccessful Ak Zhol presidential candidate Alikhan Baymenov is moving to reorganize his party, with the goal of occupying the Mazhilis seat it won in 2004 elections and engaging the GOK in discussion of political reform. The party also intends to take part in the Democratization Commission that President Nazarbayev has promised to establish after the inauguration. Ak Zhol's priorities are diversification of the mass media, reform of Parliament, and reform of the judiciary. Baymenov says that he will look to someone else in the Ak Zhol leadership to represent the party in Parliament, raising the question of whether he is angling for a GOK appointment in the inevitable post-inaugural cabinet reshuffle. End summary. ¶2. (U) The Ambassador met with Ak Zhol presidential candidate Alikhan Baymenov on December 29 in Almaty to review the election campaign and discuss Baymenov's plans for the future. POEC chief also participated. -------------- Presidential Elections -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Baymenov commented briefly on the December 4 presidential elections, but clearly seemed more interested in discussing the future. Noting that Ak Zhol had described the elections as legitimate but not clean in its public statement, Baymenov claimed that both turnout figures and the vote total for Nazarbayev had been artificially inflated through the use of administrative resources. Nazarbayev had actually received 60-65% of the vote rather than 91%, according to the challenger. In one precinct where according to the official results only seven people voted for him, Baymenov claimed that there were 50 people ready to testify in court that they had cast their ballots for him. ¶4. (SBU) Baymenov told the Ambassador that in his home village in the Zhezkazgan region, local authorities gathered everyone together and threatened to close the primary local employer, a Kazakhmys facility employing 200 people, if local residents voted for Baymenov. He had not filed a complaint because there was "no point." -------------- Ak Zhol's Plans for the Future -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The leadership of Ak Zhol met in Astana on December 28 to agree on next steps, according to Baymenov. They agreed to undertake a one-month review of the party's program and relations with other parties and organizations. They also agreed to reduce the number of paid staff. ¶6. (SBU) Following this review period, Ak Zhol intends to cooperate with the GOK on reform, according to Baymenov. The party will likely take the seat in the Mazhilis that it won in 2004 parliamentary elections. Baymenov, who had been first on the party list and had refused to take the seat due to the GOK's failure to address procedural violations, explained that the party leadership had agreed that it was important to use the seat to initiate legislation and advocate on behalf of constituents. Baymenov said that he would probably not occupy the seat himself; any of the 13 Ak Zhol leaders who had been on the party list and who remained in the party would be eligible. ¶7. (SBU) Baymenov added that Ak Zhol will probably participate in the Democratization Commission that Nazarbayev had promised to establish following the inauguration. He said that he himself had proposed the idea of such a commission to Nazarbayev a year and a half ago. ¶8. (SBU) Ak Zhol's priorities, according to Baymenov, will be to push for de-monopolization of the mass media, reform of the Parliament, and increased independence for the judiciary. Judicial reform, possibly including the election of some judges, would help address the problem of corruption and impose increased responsibility on government officials to perform their duties. He said that he was optimistic about the prospects for reform of Parliament, given Nazarbayev's statements about expanding the Mazhilis. Such reform would increase the competition among parties, thereby revitalizing the political environment and encouraging companies to support political parties. Baymenov stated that the Senate played no meaningful role and should be abolished; at the same time, an Audit Chamber should be created. With regard to demonopolization of the mass media, Baymenov said it was not realistic to expect fast change. A realistic first step might be to create a public committee to oversee state television channel Kazakhstan 1. Ak Zhol had also discussed the direct election of local akims, but had not included it as a priority due to the likelihood that Nazarbayev would not agree. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Comment: Baymenov's assertion that he will not take Ak Zhol's seat in Parliament, despite the fact that he is the party's only well-known leader, raises the possibility that he is keeping himself available for a GOK position after the expected post-inaugural cabinet reshuffle. His muted reaction to electoral violations and renewed willingness to engage with the GOK, combined with an offhand comment about how much his family wants to move to Astana, could indicate that Baymenov is hoping for recognition of his restrained approach during the campaign. Time will tell. End comment. ORDWAY NNNN