KAZAKHSTAN: UPDATE ON MURDER OF OPPOSITION FIGURE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ALMATY 000646

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN (JMUDGE),DHL/PHD (CKUCHTA-HELBLING)

E.O. 190356: N/A
TAGS: POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: UPDATE ON MURDER OF OPPOSITION FIGURE

REF: ALMATY 576


1. (SBU) Summary: An estimated three to five thousand
people, including the Ambassador, DCM and representatives
from other missions and international organizations,
attended the February 15 memorial services in Almaty for
slain opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly. No
prominent GOK officials represented the government at the
memorial. After the service, opposition leaders delivered
emotional speeches, many labeling the crime a "political
assassination," and placing blame on the government. While
the services and a subsequent cemetery procession took
place without incident in Almaty, a For Just Kazakhstan
(FJK) activist reported to Emboff that several opposition
sympathizers had been detained during February 15
gatherings in other cities.


2. (SBU) Summary (continued): At a February 14 press
conference, FJK leaders denounced the crime as politically
motivated, and announced the formation of a public
commission to investigate the murder. Several GOK
officials, including a Deputy Minister of Interior, have
down-played the possibility of a political motive for the
murder. Meanwhile, the GOK has accepted an Embassy offer of
FBI assistance in investigating the crime, a development
which the GOK may make public as early as February 16.


3. (U) Summary (continued): As of February 15, the local
wire service Interfax-Kazakhstan had provided the most
extensive coverage, television news focused on facts with
no commentary by public officials, and official and pro-
government daily newspapers had not published any
information about the murder. End Summary.

Thousands Attend Sarsenbaiuly's Memorial
--------------


4. (U) The February 15 memorial services in Almaty for
slain opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly were well-
organized and attended by some three to five thousand
people, including the Ambassador, DCM and representatives
from other diplomatic and international organizations,
including the OSCE. No prominent GOK officials represented
the government at the memorial. Following the viewing of
the body, Sarsenbaiuly's followers gathered in the street
near Almaty's Academy of Science, where the services took
place, to hear fiery speeches from a "who's who" list of
opposition leaders. The speakers almost uniformly
denounced Sarsenbaiuly's murder as a political
assassination perpetrated by the government. The emotional
attendees, many of whom carried signs with slogans such as
"The hands of the regime are bloody," and "It is impossible
to intimidate us," then set off on foot to accompany the
coffin to the distant cemetery.


5. (U) Among the notable remarks delivered to the memorial
crowd, opposition journalist Sergei Duvanov said that
"everyone knows who is behind this political assassination.
You are scared to name his name. I am not. It is Mr.
Ninety-one percent" (Note: an allusion to President
Nazarbayev whose official tally in the December 2005
election 91 percent.) FJK activist Amirzhan Kosanov
declared that "it is time to stop keeping silent. People
should start reacting to this political terror." Duvanov
called on the President to come back urgently from an
overseas vacation and "explain what he is going to do.
Just expressing his condolences is not enough."

Opposition Supporters Detained?
--------------


6. (SBU) Kosanov called POL FSN at mid-day on February 15
to confirm that the memorial service and funeral procession
in Almaty had occurred without incident. However, he
reported, Sarsenbaiuly sympathizers in other cities,
including Astana, Kokshetau and Taldykorgan, had been
detained in the course of February 15 memorial gatherings
and marches in those places. Post has not been able to
confirm Kosanov's allegations.

"For a Just Kazakhstan" Press Conference
--------------


7. (U) In a February 14 press conference, FJK leaders
denounced Sarsenbaiuly's death as a "political
assassination." Former FJK presidential candidate
Zharmakhan Tuyakbay demanded swift action by the
authorities, and called for Parliament to discuss the case.
Several of Tuyakbay's associates made a connection between
Sarsenbaiuly's death and those of Zamanbek Nurkadilov and
political activist Yelena Nikitina's daughter claiming that
all three were politically motivated, and aimed at
intimidating the opposition. (Note: Nikitina's 16 year old
daughter had worked on Tuyekbay's campaign. She
disappeared before the Dec. 5 election, and her body was
found several weeks later. A family member was arrested
and charged with her murder. End Note.)


8. (SBU) Asked by the press why Sarsenbaiuly had been
targeted, FJK's Tolegen Zhukeyev responded that it was
because Sarsenbaiuly had been a popular politician. After
the press conference, another FJK leader, Bulat Abilov,
gave a different answer, explaining that both Nurkadilov
and Sarsenbaiuly had been "very close" to Nazarbayev, and
thus may have possessed compromising materials about the
President. Asked "why now?" Abilov suggested that
"somebody in high office decided it was the right time
because the president was on leave abroad." Speculating
further, he added that "Nazarbayev was ready for dialogue
with us. And somebody decided to prevent the dialogue this
way." FJK officials announced that the opposition had
formed a public commission to investigate the murder.

Deputy Interior Minister Offers Other Motives
--------------


9. (U) A handful of GOK officials have spoken to the press
about the case, in most cases to minimize the political
angle of the murder. According to press reports, Deputy
Interior Minister Kasymov termed "premature" attempts to
label the murder "political." Among other possible motives
for the crime, Kasymov cited business and family affairs,
as well as "murder in order to destabilize the situation in
our country." Kasymov suggested that, in all likelihood,
Sarsenbaiuly was killed by "someone close to him." If it
was "someone from the outside," he said, "there would be
bruises at least."

Media Reaction: Muted So Far
--------------


10. (U) As of February 15, the local wire service Interfax-
Kazakhstan had provided the most extensive coverage to the
crime. Television news focused on facts with no commentary
by public officials, and official and pro-government daily
newspapers had not published any information about the
murder. (Note: Many Kazakhstani newspapers are centrist
or progressive weeklies that are issued on Thursdays and
Fridays, so print coverage may appear later). Only
Interfax published commentary made during the February 14
press conference.


11. (U) The February 13 primetime evening news on the three
official and independent national broadcast networks
relayed the facts as then known. The next evening, only
Channel 31, an independent national broadcaster, covered
the case. Three separate reports provided updates on the
case plus reactions from prominent community leaders to the
murder, and commentary from members of the opposition.

GOK Accepts U.S. Offer of Assistance
--------------


12. (SBU) In a February 14 conversation with Adilbek
Dzhaksybekov, Head of the Presidential Administration, the
Ambassador offered the government forensic and other U.S.
assistance in investigating the crime. On February 15,
Foreign Minister Tokayev relayed the GOK's acceptance of
the offer. LEGATT, in consultation with FBI headquarters,
will pursue this request. He will speak with Ministry of
Interior officials on February 16 to determine the scope of
the GOK's needs, as well as USG resources to available to
assist.


13. (SBU) Comment. Sarsenbaiuly's memorial service and
funeral procession were solemn events and extremely well-
attended. The latter likely speaks both to Sarsenbaiuly's
personal and political popularity and to a level of
popularity among the politically active elements of Almaty.
Despite the opposition's fiery rhetoric following the
discovery of the crime, there is no evidence whatsoever
that the authorities, let alone Nazarbayev, had anything to
do with the murder. Indeed, from our perspective, he would
seem to have much to lose, and nothing to gain, from such a
drastic move, which is very uncharacteristic of
Kazakhstan's national and political culture.


14. (SBU) Comment Cot'd: Nonetheless, while other motives
cannot be ruled out, at this point a political motivation
seems to be the most plausible explanation. The only
problem is identifying a political force that would
actually gain from the assassination. From the Embassy's
perspective, the GOK's acceptance of U.S. forensic
assistance suggests that the government is determined to
establish the credibility and seriousness of its murder
investigation. This will help counteract the initial
impression in the international press, stimulated by
understandably emotional (if not particularly logical)
accusations by the opposition, that Nazarbayev and the
government have something to do with this murder. End
Comment.

ORDWAY